A factor model of seasonality in stock returns

Published as an article in: The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 2004, vol. 44, issue 2, pages 224-236.

Monte Carlo Valuation of natural gas investments

This paper deals with the valuation of energy assets related to natural gas. In particular, we evaluate a baseload Natural Gas Combined Cycle (NGCC) power plant and an ancillary instalation, namely a Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) facility, in a realistic setting; specifically, these investments enjoy a long useful life but require some non-negligible time to build. Then we focus on the valuation of several investment options again in a realistic setting. These include the option to invest in the power plant when there is uncertainty concerning the initial outlay, or the option's time to maturity, or the cost of CO2 emission permits, or when there is a chance to double the plant size in the future. Our model comprises three sources of risk. We consider uncertain gas prices with regard to both the current level and the long-run equilibrium level; the current electricity price is also uncertain. They all are assumed to show mean reversion. The two-factor model for natural gas price is calibrated using data from NYMEX NG futures contracts. Also, we calibrate the one-factor model for electricity price using data from the Spanish wholesale electricity market, respectively. Then we use the estimated parameter values alongside actual physical parameters from a case study to value natural gas plants. Finally, the calibrated parameters are also used in a Monte Carlo simulation framework to evaluate several American-type options to invest in these energy assets. We accomplish this by following the least squares MC approach.

Stability of the factorial structure of metabolic syndrome from childhood to adolescence : a 6-year follow-up study

Background: Metabolic syndrome (MS) is a clustering of cardiometabolic risk factors that is considered a predictor of cardiovascular disease, type 2 diabetes and mortality. There is no consistent evidence on whether the MS construct works in the same way in different populations and at different stages in life. Methods: We used confirmatory factor analysis to examine if a single-factor-model including waist circumference, triglycerides/HDL-c, insulin and mean arterial pressure underlies metabolic syndrome from the childhood to adolescence in a 6-years follow-up study in 174 Swedish and 460 Estonian children aged 9 years at baseline. Indeed, we analyze the tracking of a previously validated MS index over this 6-years period. Results: The estimates of goodness-of-fit for the single-factor-model underlying MS were acceptable both in children and adolescents. The construct stability of a new model including the differences from baseline to the end of the follow-up in the components of the proposed model displayed good fit indexes for the change, supporting the hypothesis of a single factor underlying MS component trends. Conclusions: A single-factor-model underlying MS is stable across the puberty in both Estonian and Swedish young people. The MS index tracks acceptably from childhood to adolescence.

Repensando la confianza como factor crítico en la gestión organizativa

[ES] La confianza en el mundo de los negocios es un factor esencial que viene siendo estudiado por la literatura del Management desde hace décadas. Partiendo de la propuesta seminal de Mayer et al. (1995), acerca de qué es la confianza y cómo se desarrolla en el seno de las organizaciones, proponemos trazar una crítica constructiva al modelo descrito a partir de las aportaciones de Spaemann, autor de dilatada trayectoria en el marco de la denominada “Filosofía Moral de la Europa Continental”.

Plasma brain-derived neurotrophic factor levels, learning capacity and cognition in patients with first episode psychosis

Background: Cognitive impairments are seen in first psychotic episode (FEP) patients. The neurobiological underpinnings that might underlie these changes remain unknown. The aim of this study is to investigate whether Brain Derived Neurotrophic Factor (BDNF) levels are associated with cognitive impairment in FEP patients compared with healthy controls. Methods: 45 FEP patients and 45 healthy controls matched by age, gender and educational level were selected from the Basque Country area of Spain. Plasma BDNF levels were assessed in healthy controls and in patients. A battery of cognitive tests was applied to both groups, with the patients being assessed at 6 months after the acute episode and only in those with a clinical response to treatment. Results: Plasma BDNF levels were altered in patients compared with the control group. In FEP patients, we observed a positive association between BDNF levels at six months and five cognitive domains (learning ability,immediate and delayed memory, abstract thinking and processing speed) which persisted after controlling for medications prescribed, drug use, intelligence quotient (IQ) and negative symptoms. In the healthy control group, BDNF levels were not associated with cognitive test scores. Conclusion: Our results suggest that BDNF is associated with the cognitive impairment seen after a FEP. Further investigations of the role of this neurotrophin in the symptoms associated with psychosis onset are warranted.

Intranasal Delivery of Plasma and Platelet Growth Factors Using PRGF-Endoret System Enhances Neurogenesis in a Mouse Model of Alzheimer’s Disease

[EN] Neurodegeneration together with a reduction in neurogenesis are cardinal features of Alzheimer’s disease (AD) induced by a combination of toxic amyloid-β peptide (Aβ) and a loss of trophic factor support. Amelioration of these was assessed with diverse neurotrophins in experimental therapeutic approaches. The aim of this study was to investigate whether intranasal delivery of plasma rich in growth factors (PRGF-Endoret), an autologous pool of morphogens and proteins, could enhance hippocampal neurogenesis and reduce neurodegeneration in an amyloid precursor protein/presenilin-1 (APP/PS1) mouse model. Neurotrophic and neuroprotective actions were firstly evident in primary neuronal cultures, where cell proliferation and survival were augmented by Endoret treatment. Translation of these effects in vivo was assessed in wild type and APP/PS1 mice, where neurogenesis was evaluated using 5-bromodeoxyuridine (BdrU), doublecortin (DCX), and NeuN immunostaining 5 weeks after Endoret administration. The number of BrdU, DCX, and NeuN positive cell was increased after chronic treatment. The number of degenerating neurons, detected with fluoro Jade-B staining was reduced in Endoret-treated APP/PS1 mice at 5 week after intranasal administration. In conclusion, Endoret was able to activate neuronal progenitor cells, enhancing hippocampal neurogenesis, and to reduce Aβ-induced neurodegeneration in a mouse model of AD.

Vascular endothelial growth factor regulates melanoma cell adhesion and growth in the bone marrow microenvironment via tumor cyclooxygenase-2

Background: Human melanoma frequently colonizes bone marrow (BM) since its earliest stage of systemic dissemination, prior to clinical metastasis occurrence. However, how melanoma cell adhesion and proliferation mechanisms are regulated within bone marrow stromal cell (BMSC) microenvironment remain unclear. Consistent with the prometastatic role of inflammatory and angiogenic factors, several studies have reported elevated levels of cyclooxygenase-2 (COX-2) in melanoma although its pathogenic role in bone marrow melanoma metastasis is unknown. Methods: Herein we analyzed the effect of cyclooxygenase-2 (COX-2) inhibitor celecoxib in a model of generalized BM dissemination of left cardiac ventricle-injected B16 melanoma (B16M) cells into healthy and bacterial endotoxin lipopolysaccharide (LPS)-pretreated mice to induce inflammation. In addition, B16M and human A375 melanoma (A375M) cells were exposed to conditioned media from basal and LPS-treated primary cultured murine and human BMSCs, and the contribution of COX-2 to the adhesion and proliferation of melanoma cells was also studied. Results: Mice given one single intravenous injection of LPS 6 hour prior to cancer cells significantly increased B16M metastasis in BM compared to untreated mice; however, administration of oral celecoxib reduced BM metastasis incidence and volume in healthy mice, and almost completely abrogated LPS-dependent melanoma metastases. In vitro, untreated and LPS-treated murine and human BMSC-conditioned medium (CM) increased VCAM-1-dependent BMSC adherence and proliferation of B16M and A375M cells, respectively, as compared to basal medium-treated melanoma cells. Addition of celecoxib to both B16M and A375M cells abolished adhesion and proliferation increments induced by BMSC-CM. TNF alpha and VEGF secretion increased in the supernatant of LPS-treated BMSCs; however, anti-VEGF neutralizing antibodies added to B16M and A375M cells prior to LPS-treated BMSC-CM resulted in a complete abrogation of both adhesion-and proliferation-stimulating effect of BMSC on melanoma cells. Conversely, recombinant VEGF increased adherence to BMSC and proliferation of both B16M and A375M cells, compared to basal medium-treated cells, while addition of celecoxib neutralized VEGF effects on melanoma. Recombinant TNFa induced B16M production of VEGF via COX-2-dependent mechanism. Moreover, exogenous PGE2 also increased B16M cell adhesion to immobilized recombinant VCAM-1. Conclusions: We demonstrate the contribution of VEGF-induced tumor COX-2 to the regulation of adhesion-and proliferation-stimulating effects of TNFa, from endotoxin-activated bone marrow stromal cells, on VLA-4-expressing

Cytokine pathway disruption in a mouse model of schizophrenia induced by Munc18-1a overexpression in the brain

Background: An accumulating body of evidence points to the significance of neuroinflammation and immunogenetics in schizophrenia, and an imbalance of cytokines in the central nervous system (CNS) has been suggested to be associated with the disorder. Munc18-overexpressing mice (Munc18-OE) have provided a model for the study of the alterations that may underlie the symptoms of subjects with schizophrenia. The aim of the present study was to elucidate the involvement of neuroinflammation and cytokine imbalance in this model. Methods: Cytokines were evaluated in the cortex and the striatum of Munc18-OE and wild-type (WT) mice by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). Protein levels of specific microglia and macrophage, astrocytic and neuroinflammation markers were quantified by western blot in the cortex and the striatum of Munc18-OE and WT mice. Results: Each cytokine evaluated (Interferon-gamma (IFN-gamma), Tumor Necrosis Factor-alpha (TNF-alpha), Interleukin-2 (IL-2) and CCL2 chemokine) was present at higher levels in the striatum of Munc18-OE mice than WT. Cortical TNF-alpha and IL-2 levels were significantly lower in Munc18-OE mice than WT mice. The microglia and macrophage marker CD11b was lower in the cortexes of Munc18-OE mice than WT, but no differences were observed in the striatum. Glial Fibrillary Acidic Protein (GFAP) and Nuclear Factor-kappaB (NF-kappa B)p65 levels were not different between the groups. Interleukin-1beta (IL-1 beta) and IL-6 levels were beneath detection limits. Conclusions: The disrupted levels of cytokines detected in the brain of Munc18-OE mice was found to be similar to clinical reports and endorses study of this type for analysis of this aspect of the disorder. The lower CD11b expression in the cortex but not in the striatum of the Munc18-OE mice may reflect differences in physiological activity. The cytokine expression pattern observed in Munc18-OE mice is similar to a previously published model of schizophrenia caused by maternal immune activation. Together, these data suggest a possible role for an immune imbalance in this disorder.

Increased antiparkinson efficacy of the combined administration of VEGF- and GDNF-loaded nanospheres in a partial lesion model of Parkinson's disease

Current research efforts are focused on the application of growth factors, such as glial cell line-derived neurotrophic factor (GDNF) and vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF), as neuroregenerative approaches that will prevent the neurodegenerative process in Parkinson's disease. Continuing a previous work published by our research group, and with the aim to overcome different limitations related to growth factor administration, VEGF and GDNF were encapsulated in poly(lactic-co-glycolic acid) nanospheres (NS). This strategy facilitates the combined administration of the VEGF and GDNF into the brain of 6-hydroxydopamine (6-OHDA) partially lesioned rats, resulting in a continuous and simultaneous drug release. The NS particle size was about 200 nm and the simultaneous addition of VEGF NS and GDNF NS resulted in significant protection of the PC-12 cell line against 6-OHDA in vitro. Once the poly(lactic-co-glycolic acid) NS were implanted into the striatum of 6-OHDA partially lesioned rats, the amphetamine rotation behavior test was carried out over 10 weeks, in order to check for in vivo efficacy. The results showed that VEGF NS and GDNF NS significantly decreased the number of amphetamine-induced rotations at the end of the study. In addition, tyrosine hydroxylase immunohistochemical analysis in the striatum and the external substantia nigra confirmed a significant enhancement of neurons in the VEGF NS and GDNF NS treatment group. The synergistic effect of VEGF NS and GDNF NS allows for a reduction of the dose by half, and may be a valuable neurogenerative/neuroreparative approach for treating Parkinson's disease.

Muscle wasting in myotonic dystrophies: a model of premature aging

Myotonic dystrophy type 1 (DM1 or Steinert's disease) and type 2 (DM2) are multisystem disorders of genetic origin. Progressive muscular weakness, atrophy and myotonia are the most prominent neuromuscular features of these diseases, while other clinical manifestations such as cardiomyopathy, insulin resistance and cataracts are also common. From a clinical perspective, most DM symptoms are interpreted as a result of an accelerated aging (cataracts, muscular weakness and atrophy, cognitive decline, metabolic dysfunction, etc.), including an increased risk of developing tumors. From this point of view, DM1 could be described as a progeroid syndrome since a notable age dependent dysfunction of all systems occurs. The underlying molecular disorder in DM1 consists of the existence of a pathological (CTG) triplet expansion in the 3' untranslated region (UTR) of the Dystrophia ll/Iyotonica Protein Kinase (DMPK) gene, whereas (CCTG)n repeats in the first intron of the Cellular Nucleic acid Binding Protein/Zinc Finger Protein 9 (CNBP/ZNF9) gene cause DM2. The expansions are transcribed into (CUG)n and (CCUG)n-containing RNA, respectively, which form secondary structures and sequester RNA binding proteins, such as the splicing factor muscleblind-like protein (MBNL), forming nuclear aggregates known as foci. Other splicing factors, such as CUGBP, are also disrupted, leading to a spliceopathy of a large number of downstream genes linked to the clinical features of these diseases. Skeletal muscle regeneration relies on muscle progenitor cells, known as satellite cells, which are activated after muscle damage, and which proliferate and differentiate to muscle cells, thus regenerating the damaged tissue. Satellite cell dysfunction seems to be a common feature of both age-dependent muscle degeneration (sarcopenia) and muscle wasting in DM and other muscle degenerative diseases. This review aims to describe the cellular, molecular and macrostructural processes involved in the muscular degeneration seen in DM patients, highlighting the similarities found with muscle aging.