Valuing Flexibility: The case of an Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle Power Plant

In this paper we analyze the valuation of options stemming from the flexibility in an Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle (IGCC) Power Plant. First we use as a base case the opportunity to invest in a Natural Gas Combined Cycle (NGCC) Power Plant, deriving the optimal investment rule as a function of fuel price and the remaining life of the right to invest. Additionally, the analytical solution for a perpetual option is obtained. Second, the valuation of an operating IGCC Power Plant is studied, with switching costs between states and a choice of the best operation mode. The valuation of this plant serves as a base to obtain the value of the option to delay an investment of this type. Finally, we derive the value of an opportunity to invest either in a NGCC or IGCC Power Plant, that is, to choose between an inflexible and a flexible technology, respectively. Numerical computations involve the use of one- and two-dimensional binomial lattices that support a mean-reverting process for the fuel prices. Basic parameter values refer to an actual IGCC power plant currently in operation.

Unions, Monetary Shocks and the Labour Market Cycle

Published as an article in: Economic Modelling, 2011, vol. 28, issue 3, pages 1140-1149.

Employment comovements at the sectoral level over the business cycle

This paper extends the technique suggested by den Haan (2000) to investigate contemporaneous as well as lead and lag correlations among economic data for a range of forecast horizons. The technique provides a richer picture of the economic dynamics generating the data and allows one to investigate which variables lead or lag others and whether the lead or lag pattern is short term or long term in nature. The technique is applied to monthly sectoral level employment data for the U.S. and shows that among the ten industrial sectors followed by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, six tend to lead the other four. These six have high correlations indicating that the structural shocks generating the data movements are mostly in common. Among the four lagging industries, some lag by longer intervals than others and some have low correlations with the leading industries indicating that these industries are partially influenced by structural shocks beyond those generating the six leading industries.

Activation of violaxanthin cycle in darkness is a common response to different abiotic stresses : a case study in Pelvetia canaliculata

Background: In the violaxanthin (V) cycle, V is de-epoxidized to zeaxanthin (Z) when strong light or light combined with other stressors lead to an overexcitation of photosystems. However, plants can also suffer stress in darkness and recent reports have shown that dehydration triggers V-de-epoxidation in the absence of light. In this study, we used the highly stress-tolerant brown alga Pelvetia canaliculata as a model organism, due to its lack of lutein and its non-photochemical quenching independent of the transthylakoidal-ΔpH, to study the triggering of the V-cycle in darkness induced by abiotic stressors. Results: We have shown that besides desiccation, other factors such as immersion, anoxia and high temperature also induced V-de-epoxidation in darkness. This process was reversible once the treatments had ceased (with the exception of heat, which caused lethal damage). Irrespective of the stressor applied, the resulting de-epoxidised xanthophylls correlated with a decrease in Fv/Fm, suggesting a common function in the down-regulation of photosynthetical efficiency. The implication of the redox-state of the plastoquinone-pool and of the differential activity of V-cycle enzymes on V-de-epoxidation in darkness was also examined. Current results suggest that both violaxanthin de-epoxidase (VDE) and zeaxanthin-epoxidase (ZE) have a basal constitutive activity even in darkness, being ZE inhibited under stress. This inhibition leads to Z accumulation. Conclusion: This study demonstrates that V-cycle activity is triggered by several abiotic stressors even when they occur in an absolute absence of light, leading to a decrease in Fv/Fm. This finding provides new insights into an understanding of the regulation mechanism of the V-cycle and of its ecophysiological roles.

Impacto solvencia II en un seguro de vida

La actividad aseguradora supone la transferencia de riesgos del asegurado al asegurador. El asegurador se compromete al pago de una prestación si el riesgo se realiza. Se produce un cambio en el ciclo productivo. El asegurador vende una cobertura sin conocer el momento y el coste exacto de dicha cobertura. Esta particularidad de la actividad aseguradora explica la necesidad para una entidad aseguradora de ser solvente en cada momento y ante cualquier imprevisto. Por ello, la solvencia de las entidades aseguradoras es un aspecto que se ha ido recogiendo en las distintas normativas que han regulado la actividad aseguradora y al que se ha ido dando cada vez más importancia. Actualmente la legislación vigente en materia de solvencia de las aseguradoras esta regulada por la directiva europea Solvencia I. Esta directiva establece dos conceptos para garantizar la solvencia: las provisiones técnicas y el margen de solvencia. Las provisiones técnicas son las calculadas para garantizar la solvencia estática de la compañía, es decir aquella que hace frente, en un instante temporal determinado, a los compromisos asumidos por la entidad. El margen de solvencia se destina a cubrir la solvencia dinámica, aquella que hace referencia a eventos futuros que puedan afectar la capacidad del asegurador. Sin embargo en una corriente de gestión global del riesgo en la que el sector bancario ya se había adelantado al sector asegurador con la normativa Basilea II, se decidió iniciar un proyecto europeo de reforma de Solvencia I y en noviembre del 2009 se adoptó la directiva 2009/138/CE del parlamento europeo y del consejo, sobre el seguro de vida, el acceso a la actividad de seguro y de reaseguro y su ejercicio mas conocida como Solvencia II. Esta directiva supone un profundo cambio en las reglas actuales de solvencia para las entidades aseguradoras. Este cambio persigue el objetivo de establecer un marco regulador común a nivel europeo que sea más adaptado al perfil de riesgo de cada entidad aseguradora. Esta nueva directiva define dos niveles distintos de capital: el SCR (requerimiento estándar de capital de solvencia) y el MCR (requerimiento mínimo de capital). Para el calculo del SCR se ha establecido que el asegurador tendrá la libertad de elegir entre dos modelos. Un modelo estándar propuesto por la Autoridad Europea de Seguros y Pensiones de Jubilación (EIOPA por sus siglas en inglés), que permitirá un calculo simple, y un modelo interno desarrollado por la propia entidad que deberá ser aprobado por las autoridades competentes. También se contempla la posibilidad de utilizar un modelo mixto que combine ambos, el estándar y el interno. Para el desarrollo del modelo estándar se han realizado una serie de estudios de impacto cuantitativos (QIS). El último estudio (QIS 5) ha sido el que ha planteado de forma más precisa el cálculo del SCR. Plantea unos shocks que se deberán de aplicar al balance de la entidad con el objetivo de estresarlo, y en base a los resultados obtenidos constituir el SCR. El objetivo de este trabajo es realizar una síntesis de las especificaciones técnicas del QIS5 para los seguros de vida y realizar una aplicación práctica para un seguro de vida mixto puro. En la aplicación práctica se determinarán los flujos de caja asociados a este producto para calcular su mejor estimación (Best estimate). Posteriormente se determinará el SCR aplicando los shocks para los riesgos de mortalidad, rescates y gastos. Por último, calcularemos el margen de riesgo asociado al SCR. Terminaremos el presente TFG con unas conclusiones, la bibliografía empleada así como un anexo con las tablas empleadas.

Occupational exposure to nano-TiO2 in the life cycle steps of new depollutant mortars used in construction

The present work is focused on the measurement of workers exposure to nano-TiO2 in the life cycle steps of depollutant mortars. It has been done in the framework of the SCAFFOLD project, which aims at the management of potential risks arising from the use of manufactured nanomaterials in construction. Main findings can be summarized as follows: (1) The occupational exposure to nano-TiO2 is below 0.3 mg/m(3) for all measured scenarios. The highest concentrations were measured during the cleaning task (in the nano-TiO2 manufacturing process) and during the application (spraying) of depollutant coatings on a wall. (2) It was found a high release of particles above the background in several tasks as expected due to the nature of the activities performed. The maximum concentration was measured during drilling and during adding powder materials (mean total particle concentration up to 5.591E+04 particles/cm(3) and 5.69E+04 particles/cm(3)). However, considering data on total particle concentration released, no striking differences have been observed when tasks have been performed using conventional materials in the sector (control) and when using materials doped with nano-objects.