Monte Carlo Valuation of natural gas investments

This paper deals with the valuation of energy assets related to natural gas. In particular, we evaluate a baseload Natural Gas Combined Cycle (NGCC) power plant and an ancillary instalation, namely a Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) facility, in a realistic setting; specifically, these investments enjoy a long useful life but require some non-negligible time to build. Then we focus on the valuation of several investment options again in a realistic setting. These include the option to invest in the power plant when there is uncertainty concerning the initial outlay, or the option's time to maturity, or the cost of CO2 emission permits, or when there is a chance to double the plant size in the future. Our model comprises three sources of risk. We consider uncertain gas prices with regard to both the current level and the long-run equilibrium level; the current electricity price is also uncertain. They all are assumed to show mean reversion. The two-factor model for natural gas price is calibrated using data from NYMEX NG futures contracts. Also, we calibrate the one-factor model for electricity price using data from the Spanish wholesale electricity market, respectively. Then we use the estimated parameter values alongside actual physical parameters from a case study to value natural gas plants. Finally, the calibrated parameters are also used in a Monte Carlo simulation framework to evaluate several American-type options to invest in these energy assets. We accomplish this by following the least squares MC approach.

Landscape valuation through discrete choice experiments: Current practice and future research reflections

This work has been presented in: V Conference AERNA, Faro (Portugal), 30 May 2012-1 June 2012 and IV Workshop on Valuation Methods in Agro-food and Environmental Economics, Castelldefels (Barcelona, Spain), 12 July 2012-13 July 2012.

Economic Valuation of Ecosystem Services: Conflicts in Classification

4 p.

Classifying Ecosystem Services for Economic Valuation: The case of forest water services

30 p.

Valuation of wind energy projects: A real options approach

27 p.

The Spanish corporate structure through interlocking directorates

[EN] The aim of this paper is to determine to what extent globalization pressures are changing interlocking directorate networks modeled on continental capitalism into Anglo-Saxon models. For this purpose we analyse the Spanish network of interlocks, comparing the present structure (2012) with that of 1993 and 2006. We show how, although Spanish corporative structure continues to display characteristics of the continental economies, some major banks are significantly reducing industrial activity. Nevertheless, the financial organizations continue to maintain a close relationship with sectors such as construction and services. The analysis of the network of directorates shows a retreat in activity of industrial banking in Spain. Two large Spanish financial institutions, BSCH and La Caixa, continue to undertake activities of industrial banking in 2006, but this activity is significantly reduced in 2012. According to the theories on the role of the interlocking directorates, the companies in these sectors assure their access to banking credit by incorporating advisors from financial organizations to their board of directors. We cannot conclude that the structure of the Spanish corporate network has become a new case of Anglo-Saxon structure, but we got indications that are becoming less hierarchic as banks seem to slowly abandon centrality positions. This is especially salient if we compare the networks of 2006 and 2012, which show a continuing decrease of the role of banks and insurance companies in the network.

Valuation of Wind Energy Projects: A Real Options Approach

We address the valuation of an operating wind farm and the finite-lived option to invest in it under different reward/support schemes: a constant feed-in tariff, a premium on top of the electricity market price (either a fixed premium or a variable subsidy such as a renewable obligation certificate or ROC), and a transitory subsidy, among others. Futures contracts on electricity with ever longer maturities enable market-based valuations to be undertaken. The model considers up to three sources of uncertainty: the electricity price, the level of wind generation, and the certificate (ROC) price where appropriate. When analytical solutions are lacking, we resort to a trinomial lattice combined with Monte Carlo simulation; we also use a two-dimensional binomial lattice when uncertainty in the ROC price is considered. Our data set refers to the UK. The numerical results show the impact of several factors involved in the decision to invest: the subsidy per MWh generated, the initial lump-sum subsidy, the maturity of the investment option, and electricity price volatility. Different combinations of variables can help bring forward investments in wind generation. One-off policies, e.g., a transitory initial subsidy, seem to have a stronger effect than a fixed premium per MWh produced.