Consumer Confidence and Yield Spreads in Europe

This paper shows the extraordinary capacity of yield spreads to anticipate consumption growth as proxy by the Economic Sentiment Indicator elaborated by the European Commission in order to predict turning points in business cycles. This new evidence complements the well known results regarding the usefulness of the slope of the term structure of interest rates to predict real economic conditions and, in particular, recessions by using a direct measure of expectations. A linear combination of European yield spreads explains a surprising 93.7% of the variability of the Economic Sentiment Indicator. Yield spreads seem to be a key determinant of consumer confidence in Europe.

Consumer Expertise or Credit Risk? An empirical analysis of mortgage pricing

Loan mortgage interest rates are usually the result of a bank-customer negotiation process. Credit risk, consumer cross-buying potential, bundling, financial market competition and other features affecting the bargaining power of the parties could affect price. We argue that, since mortgage loan is a complex product, consumer expertise could be a relevant factor for mortgage pricing. Using data on mortgage loan prices for a sample of 1055 households for the year 2005 (Bank of Spain Survey of Household Finances, EFF-2005), and including credit risk, costs, potential capacity of the consumer to generate future business and bank competition variables, the regression results indicate that consumer expertise-related metrics are highly significant as predictors of mortgage loan prices. Other factors such as credit risk and consumer cross-buying potential do not have such a significant impact on mortgage prices. Our empirical results are affected by the credit conditions prior to the financial crisis and could shed some light on this issue.

The promoter of cell growth- and RNA protection-associated SND1 gene is activated by endoplasmic reticulum stress in human hepatoma cells

Background: Staphyloccocal nuclease domain-containing protein 1 (SND1) is involved in the regulation of gene expression and RNA protection. While numerous studies have established that SND1 protein expression is modulated by cellular stresses associated with tumor growth, hypoxia, inflammation, heat- shock and oxidative conditions, little is known about the factors responsible for SND1 expression. Here, we have approached this question by analyzing the transcriptional response of human SND1 gene to pharmacological endoplasmic reticulum (ER) stress in liver cancer cells. Results: We provide first evidence that SND1 promoter activity is increased in human liver cancer cells upon exposure to thapsigargin or tunicamycin or by ectopic expression of ATF6, a crucial transcription factor in the unfolded protein response triggered by ER stress. Deletion analysis of the 5'-flanking region of SND1 promoter identified maximal activation in fragment (-934, +221), which contains most of the predicted ER stress response elements in proximal promoter. Quantitative real- time PCR revealed a near 3 fold increase in SND1 mRNA expression by either of the stress- inducers; whereas SND1 protein was maximally upregulated (3.4-fold) in cells exposed to tunicamycin, a protein glycosylation inhibitor. Conclusion: Promoter activity of the cell growth- and RNA-protection associated SND1 gene is up-regulated by ER stress in human hepatoma cells.