Markov Switching Risk Premium and the term structure of interest rates. Empirical evidence from US post-war interest rates

This paper considers the basic present value model of interest rates under rational expectations with two additional features. First, following McCallum (1994), the model assumes a policy reaction function where changes in the short-term interest rate are determined by the long-short spread. Second, the short-term interest rate and the risk premium processes are characterized by a Markov regime-switching model. Using US post-war interest rate data, this paper finds evidence that a two-regime switching model fits the data better than the basic model. The estimation results also show the presence of two alternative states displaying quite different features.

Switching Regimes in the Term Structure of Interest Rates During U.S. Post-War: A case for the Lucas proof equilibrium?

Published as an article in: Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, 2004, vol. 8, issue 1, pages 5.

Multirating decision model validation: the relevance of the quality of the securitization issues

Rating enables the information asymmetry existing in the issuer-investor relationship to be reduced, particularly for issues with a high degree of complexity, as is the case of securitizations. However, there may be a serious conflict of interest between the issuer’s choice and remuneration of the agency and the credit rating awarded, resulting in lower quality and information power of the published rating. In this paper, we propose an explicative model of the number of ratings requested, by analyzing the relevance of the number of ratings to measure the reliability, where multirating is shown to be associated to the quality, size, liquidity and the degree of information asymmetry relating to the issue. Thus, we consider that the regulatory changes that foster the widespread publication of simultaneous ratings could help to alleviate the problem of rating model arbitrage and the crisis of confidence in credit ratings in general and in the securitization issues, in particular.

Lowndes and Locke on the value of money

This paper was presented at the 11th Annual Conference of the European Society for the History of Economic Thought (ESHET).

The Black Box of Mutual Fund Fees

This paper re-examines the determinants of mutual fund fees paid by mutual fund shareholders for management costs and other expenses. There are two novelties with respect to previous studies. First, each type of fee is explained separately. Second, the paper employs a new dataset consisting of Spanish mutual funds, making it the second paper to study mutual fund fees outside the US market. Furthermore, the Spanish market has three interesting characteristics: (i) both distribution and management are highly dominated by banks and savings banks, which points towards potential conflicts of interest; (ii) Spanish mutual fund law imposes caps on all types of fees; and (iii) Spain ranks first in terms of average mutual fund fees among similar countries. We find significant differences in mutual fund fees not explained by the fund’s investment objective. For instance, management companies owned by banks and savings banks charge higher management fees and redemption fees to nonguaranteed funds. Also, investors in older non-guaranteed funds and non-guaranteed funds with a lower average investment are more likely to end up paying higher management fees. Moreover, there is clear evidence that some mutual funds enjoy better conditions from custodial institutions than others. In contrast to evidence from the US market, larger funds are not associated with lower fees, but with higher custody fees for guaranteed funds and higher redemption fees for both types of funds. Finally, fee-setting by mutual funds is not related to fund before-fee performance.

The changing behaviour of the term structure of post-war US

Using U.S. interest rate data covering the period 1950:1-1992:7, this paper tests the rational expectations model of the term structure of interest rates. We show evidence that the rational expectations model of the term structure is supported by the data during the seventies and a period lasting from the mid-eighties to the end of the sample. However, during the …fties, sixties and a period that covers most of the Volcker’s office term (from September 1979 to April 1986) the term structure model is rejected by the data. Moreover, wefind evidence of regime changes in the short-term rate process and the term structure of interest rates. These regime switches roughly coincide with changes in the Federal Reserve chairman. The switches in monetary policy taking place when the chairmanship of the Federal Reserve changes therefore seem to play an important role in characterizing the term structure of interest rates.

Technology Outlook as a tool for the management of innovation

[EN] The purpose of this paper is to present a theoretical overview of innovation management and the tools that can aid in this endeavour. The paper adopts a user-oriented description, aiming at making SMEs familiar with the possibilities opened by innovation management tools in general and technology outlook in particular.

Managing and resisting ‘degeneration’ in employee-owned businesses: a comparative study of two large retailers in Spain and the UK

Employee-owned businesses have recently enjoyed a resurgence of interest as possible ‘alternatives’ to the somewhat tarnished image of conventional investor-owned capitalist firms. Within the context of global economic crisis, such alternatives seem newly attractive. This is somewhat ironic because, for more than a century, academic literature on employee-owned businesses has been dominated by the ‘degeneration thesis’. This suggested that these businesses tend towards failure – they either fail commercially, or they relinquish their democratic characters. Bucking this trend and offering a beacon - especially in the UK - has been the commercially successful, co-owned enterprise of the John Lewis Partnership (JLP) whose virtues have seemingly been rewarded with favourable and sustainable outcomes. This paper makes comparisons between JLP and its Spanish equivalent Eroski – the supermarket group which is part of the Mondragon cooperatives. The contribution of this paper is to examine in a comparative way how the managers in JLP and Eroski have constructed and accomplished their alternative scenarios. Using longitudinal data and detailed interviews with senior managers in both enterprises it explores the ways in which two large, employee-owned, enterprises reconcile apparently conflicting principles and objectives. The paper thus puts some new flesh on the ‘regeneration thesis’.

Body image and body composition: comparisons of young male elite soccer players and controls

[EN] The purpose of this study was to evaluate body composition and body image (perception and satisfaction) in a group of young elite soccer players and to compare the data with those of a control group (age and BMI matched). Participants were 56 volunteer males whose mean age and BMI were 19.6 (SD 1.3) years and 23.3 (SD 1.1) kg/m2, respectively. Results showed that soccer players have a higher lean mass and lower fat mass than controls. Moreover, body perception (difference between current and actual image) was more accurate in controls than in soccer players, and the results suggest a tendency for soccer players to aspire to have more muscle mass and body fat. Soccer players perceived an ideal image with significantly higher body-fat percentage than their current and actual images. There were no body-dissatisfaction differences between groups, however. Although the results are necessarily limited by the small sample size, the findings should be of interest to coaches of young elite soccer teams.

LC-MS based methods for phytosterols determination in oenological matrices. Targeted metabolomic study of Rioja grape varieties

221 p.+ anexos

Quantum Simulation of Dissipative Processes without Reservoir Engineering

We present a quantum algorithm to simulate general finite dimensional Lindblad master equations without the requirement of engineering the system-environment interactions. The proposed method is able to simulate both Markovian and non-Markovian quantum dynamics. It consists in the quantum computation of the dissipative corrections to the unitary evolution of the system of interest, via the reconstruction of the response functions associated with the Lindblad operators. Our approach is equally applicable to dynamics generated by effectively non-Hermitian Hamiltonians. We confirm the quality of our method providing specific error bounds that quantify its accuracy.

Development of nucleic acid vaccines: use of self-amplifying RNA in lipid nanoparticles

Self-amplifying RNA or RNA replicon is a form of nucleic acid-based vaccine derived from either positive-strand or negative-strand RNA viruses. The gene sequences encoding structural proteins in these RNA viruses are replaced by mRNA encoding antigens of interest as well as by RNA polymerase for replication and transcription. This kind of vaccine has been successfully assayed with many different antigens as vaccines candidates, and has been shown to be potent in several animal species, including mice, nonhuman primates, and humans. A key challenge to realizing the broad potential of self-amplifying vaccines is the need for safe and effective delivery methods. Ideally, an RNA nanocarrier should provide protection from blood nucleases and extended blood circulation, which ultimately would increase the possibility of reaching the target tissue. The delivery system must then be internalized by the target cell and, upon receptor-mediated endocytosis, must be able to escape from the endosomal compartment into the cell cytoplasm, where the RNA machinery is located, while avoiding degradation by lysosomal enzymes. Further, delivery systems for systemic administration ought to be well tolerated upon administration. They should be safe, enabling the multiadministration treatment modalities required for improved clinical outcomes and, from a developmental point of view, production of large batches with reproducible specifications is also desirable. In this review, the concept of self-amplifying RNA vaccines and the most promising lipid-based delivery systems are discussed.