Markov Switching Risk Premium and the term structure of interest rates. Empirical evidence from US post-war interest rates

This paper considers the basic present value model of interest rates under rational expectations with two additional features. First, following McCallum (1994), the model assumes a policy reaction function where changes in the short-term interest rate are determined by the long-short spread. Second, the short-term interest rate and the risk premium processes are characterized by a Markov regime-switching model. Using US post-war interest rate data, this paper finds evidence that a two-regime switching model fits the data better than the basic model. The estimation results also show the presence of two alternative states displaying quite different features.

Option-Implied Preferences Adjustments and Risk-Neutral Density Forecasts

The main objective of this paper is to analyse the value of information contained in prices of options on the IBEX 35 index at the Spanish Stock Exchange Market. The forward looking information is extracted using implied risk-neutral density functions estimated by a mixture of two-lognormals and three alternative risk-adjustments: the classic power and exponential utility functions and a habit-based specification that allows for a counter-cyclical variation of risk aversion. Our results show that at four-week horizon we can reject the hypothesis that between October 1996 and March 2000 the risk-neutral densities provide accurate predictions of the distributions of future realisations of the IBEX 35 index at a four-week horizon. When forecasting through risk-adjusted densities the performance of this period is statistically improved and we no longer reject that hypothesis. All risk-adjusted densities generate similar forecasting statistics. Then, at least for a horizon of four-weeks, the actual risk adjustment does not seem to be the issue. By contrast, at the one-week horizon risk-adjusted densities do not improve the forecasting ability of the risk-neutral counterparts.

Balance de la política fiscal desarrollada en España en época de crisis. ¿Por qué elegir el camino contractivo?

The use of a contractive fiscal policy in times of crisis and austerity can lead to so many different opinion streams which can be, at the same time, very opposite with each other. The high budget deficit in some economies has forced the eurozone to implement austerity policies, meaning that the debate is now more alive than ever. Therefore, the aim of this paper is to analyze the effects of the implementation of a contractive policy during a crisis considering the case of Spain. The positive effects in financial markets were noticed due to the decrease of the risk premium and the payment of interests, and also thanks to the increase of trust towards Spain. This way, the reduction of the Spanish deficit was remarkable but in any case there is still a long path until reaching the limit of 3% of the GDP. Also, in the short run it is possible to see that the consolidation had contractive effects in the economic activity but, in the long run, the debate is among the defenders of the fact that austerity is followed by a growing period and the ones opposing to it due to the drowning effect produced by it.

Elements of Decision under Uncertainty with Applications

This work presents the basic elements for the analysis of decision under uncertainty: Expected Utility Theory and its citicisms and risk aversion and its measurement. The concepts of certainty equivalent, risk premium, absolute risk aversion and relative risk aversion, and the "more risk averse than" relation are discussed. The work is completed with several applications of decision making under uncertainty to different economic problems: investment in risky assets and portfolio selection, risk sharing, investment to reduce risk, insurance, taxes and income underreporting, deposit insurance and the value of information.

Testing the Forecasting Performance of Ibex 35 Option-implied Risk-neutral Densities

Published also as: Documento de Trabajo Banco de España 0504/2005.

Structural capital, innovation capability, and company performance in technology-based colombian firms

[EN] In today s economy, innovation is considered to be one of the main driving forces behind business competitiveness, if not the most relevant one. Traditionally, the study of innovation has been addressed from different perspectives. Recently, literature on knowledge management and intellectual capital has provided new insights. Considering this, the aim of this paper is to analyze the impact of different organizational conditions i.e. structural capital on innovation capability and innovation performance, from an intellectual capital (IC) perspective. As regards innovation capability, two dimensions are considered: new idea generation and innovation project management. The population subject to study is made up of technology-based Colombian firms. In order to gather information about the relevant variables involved in the research, a questionnaire was designed and addressed to the CEOs of the companies making up the target population. The sample analyzed is made up of 69 companies and is large enough to carry out a statistical study based on structural equation modelling (partial least squares approach) using PLS-Graph software (Chin and Frye, 2003). The results obtained show that structural capital explains to a great extent both the effectiveness of the new idea generation process and of innovation project management. However, the influence of each specific organizational component making up structural capital (organizational design, organizational culture, hiring and professional development policies, innovation strategy, technological capital, and external structure) varies. Moreover, successful innovation project management is the only innovation capability dimension that exerts a significant impact on company performance.