Use of generalised additive models to categorise continuous variables in clinical prediction

13 P.

The IRYSS-COPD appropriateness study: objectives, methodology, and description of the prospective cohort

Background: Patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) often experience exacerbations of the disease that require hospitalization. Current guidelines offer little guidance for identifying patients whose clinical situation is appropriate for admission to the hospital, and properly developed and validated severity scores for COPD exacerbations are lacking. To address these important gaps in clinical care, we created the IRYSS-COPD Appropriateness Study. Methods/Design: The RAND/UCLA Appropriateness Methodology was used to identify appropriate and inappropriate scenarios for hospital admission for patients experiencing COPD exacerbations. These scenarios were then applied to a prospective cohort of patients attending the emergency departments (ED) of 16 participating hospitals. Information was recorded during the time the patient was evaluated in the ED, at the time a decision was made to admit the patient to the hospital or discharge home, and during follow-up after admission or discharge home. While complete data were generally available at the time of ED admission, data were often missing at the time of decision making. Predefined assumptions were used to impute much of the missing data. Discussion: The IRYSS-COPD Appropriateness Study will validate the appropriateness criteria developed by the RAND/UCLA Appropriateness Methodology and thus better delineate the requirements for admission or discharge of patients experiencing exacerbations of COPD. The study will also provide a better understanding of the determinants of outcomes of COPD exacerbations, and evaluate the equity and variability in access and outcomes in these patients.

Insight on how fishing bats discern prey and adjust their mechanic and sensorial features during the attack sequence

Several insectivorous bats have included fish in their diet, yet little is known about the processes underlying this trophic shift. We performed three field experiments with wild fishing bats to address how they manage to discern fish from insects and adapt their hunting technique to capture fish. We show that bats react only to targets protruding above the water and discern fish from insects based on prey disappearance patterns. Stationary fish trigger short and shallow dips and a terminal echolocation pattern with an important component of the narrowband and low frequency calls. When the fish disappears during the attack process, bats regulate their attack increasing the number of broadband and high frequency calls in the last phase of the echolocation as well as by lengthening and deepening their dips. These adjustments may allow bats to obtain more valuable sensorial information and to perform dips adjusted to the level of uncertainty on the location of the submerged prey. The observed ultrafast regulation may be essential for enabling fishing to become cost-effective in bats, and demonstrates the ability of bats to rapidly modify and synchronise their sensorial and motor features as a response to last minute stimulus variations.

Subtypes of Patients Experiencing Exacerbations of COPD and Associations with Outcomes

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a complex and heterogeneous condition characterized by occasional exacerbations. Identifying clinical subtypes among patients experiencing COPD exacerbations (ECOPD) could help better understand the pathophysiologic mechanisms involved in exacerbations, establish different strategies of treatment, and improve the process of care and patient prognosis. The objective of this study was to identify subtypes of ECOPD patients attending emergency departments using clinical variables and to validate the results using several outcomes. We evaluated data collected as part of the IRYSS-COPD prospective cohort study conducted in 16 hospitals in Spain. Variables collected from ECOPD patients attending one of the emergency departments included arterial blood gases, presence of comorbidities, previous COPD treatment, baseline severity of COPD, and previous hospitalizations for ECOPD. Patient subtypes were identified by combining results from multiple correspondence analysis and cluster analysis. Results were validated using key outcomes of ECOPD evolution. Four ECOPD subtypes were identified based on the severity of the current exacerbation and general health status (largely a function of comorbidities): subtype A (n = 934), neither high comorbidity nor severe exacerbation; subtype B (n = 682), moderate comorbidities; subtype C (n = 562), severe comorbidities related to mortality; and subtype D (n = 309), very severe process of exacerbation, significantly related to mortality and admission to an intensive care unit. Subtype D experienced the highest rate of mortality, admission to an intensive care unit and need for noninvasive mechanical ventilation, followed by subtype C. Subtypes A and B were primarily related to other serious complications. Hospitalization rate was more than 50% for all the subtypes, although significantly higher for subtypes C and D than for subtypes A and B. These results could help identify characteristics to categorize ECOPD patients for more appropriate care, and help test interventions and treatments in subgroups with poor evolution and outcomes.

Predictive score for mortality in patients with COPD exacerbations attending hospital emergency departments

Background: Limited information is available about predictors of short-term outcomes in patients with exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (eCOPD) attending an emergency department (ED). Such information could help stratify these patients and guide medical decision-making. The aim of this study was to develop a clinical prediction rule for short-term mortality during hospital admission or within a week after the index ED visit. Methods: This was a prospective cohort study of patients with eCOPD attending the EDs of 16 participating hospitals. Recruitment started in June 2008 and ended in September 2010. Information on possible predictor variables was recorded during the time the patient was evaluated in the ED, at the time a decision was made to admit the patient to the hospital or discharge home, and during follow-up. Main short-term outcomes were death during hospital admission or within 1 week of discharge to home from the ED, as well as at death within 1 month of the index ED visit. Multivariate logistic regression models were developed in a derivation sample and validated in a validation sample. The score was compared with other published prediction rules for patients with stable COPD. Results: In total, 2,487 patients were included in the study. Predictors of death during hospital admission, or within 1 week of discharge to home from the ED were patient age, baseline dyspnea, previous need for long-term home oxygen therapy or non-invasive mechanical ventilation, altered mental status, and use of inspiratory accessory muscles or paradoxical breathing upon ED arrival (area under the curve (AUC) = 0.85). Addition of arterial blood gas parameters (oxygen and carbon dioxide partial pressures (PO2 and PCO2)) and pH) did not improve the model. The same variables were predictors of death at 1 month (AUC = 0.85). Compared with other commonly used tools for predicting the severity of COPD in stable patients, our rule was significantly better. Conclusions: Five clinical predictors easily available in the ED, and also in the primary care setting, can be used to create a simple and easily obtained score that allows clinicians to stratify patients with eCOPD upon ED arrival and guide the medical decision-making process.

Proposal and validation of methodologies for the categorisation of continuous variables in the development of prediction models

158 p.

Inflammatory Markers and Obstructive Sleep Apnea in Obese Children: The NANOS Study

Introduction. Obesity and obstructive sleep apnea syndrome (OSA) are common coexisting conditions associated with a chronic low-grade inflammatory state underlying some of the cognitive, metabolic, and cardiovascular morbidities. Aim. To examine the levels of inflammatory markers in obese community-dwelling children with OSA, as compared to no-OSA, and their association with clinical and polysomnographic (PSG) variables. Methods. In this cross-sectional, prospective multicenter study, healthy obese Spanish children (ages 4-15 years) were randomly selected and underwent nocturnal PSG followed by a morning fasting blood draw. Plasma samples were assayed for multiple inflammatory markers. Results. 204 children were enrolled in the study; 75 had OSA, defined by an obstructive respiratory disturbance index (RDI) of 3 events/hour total sleep time (TST). BMI, gender, and age were similar in OSA and no-OSA children. Monocyte chemoattractant protein-1 (MCP-1) and plasminogen activator inhibitor-1 (PAI-1) levels were significantly higher in OSA children, with interleukin-6 concentrations being higher in moderate-severe OSA (i.e., AHI > 5/hrTST; P < 0.01), while MCP-1 levels were associated with more prolonged nocturnal hypercapnia (P < 0.001). Conclusion. IL-6, MCP-1, and PAI-1 are altered in the context of OSA among community-based obese children further reinforcing the proinflammatory effects of sleep disorders such as OSA. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01322763.

Factors associated with chronic pain in patients with bipolar depression: a cross-sectional study

Background: While pain is frequently associated with unipolar depression, few studies have investigated the link between pain and bipolar depression. In the present study we estimated the prevalence and characteristics of pain among patients with bipolar depression treated by psychiatrists in their regular clinical practice. The study was designed to identify factors associated with the manifestation of pain in these patients.- Methods:Patients diagnosed with bipolar disorder (n=121) were selected to participate in a cross-sectional study in which DSM-IV-TR criteria were employed to identify depressive episodes. The patients were asked to describe any pain experienced during the study, and in the 6 weeks beforehand, by means of a Visual Analogical Scale (VAS).- Results: Over half of the bipolar depressed patients (51.2%, 95% CI: 41.9%–60.6%), and 2/3 of the female experienced concomitant pain. The pain was of moderate to severe intensity and prolonged duration, and it occurred at multiple sites, significantly limiting the patient’s everyday activities. The most important factors associated with the presence of pain were older age, sleep disorders and delayed diagnosis of bipolar disorder.- Conclusions: Chronic pain is common in bipolar depressed patients, and it is related to sleep disorders and delayed diagnosis of their disorder. More attention should be paid to study the presence of pain in bipolar depressed patients, in order to achieve more accurate diagnoses and to provide better treatment options.

miRNA polymorphisms are associated with risk of developing chronic lymphocytic leukemia

Chronic Lymphocytic Leukemia (CLL) is the most frequent leukemia of adults in Western countries and shows a ~8.5-fold increased relative risk in first-degree relatives. Up to date several studies have identified low-penetrance susceptibility alleles in CLL. Nevertheless, these studies scarcely study regions that do not encode proteins such as microRNAs (miRNAs). Abnormalities in miRNAs, as altered expression patterns and mutations, have been described in CLL, suggesting their implication in the development of the disease. Polymorphisms in these miRNAs may deregulate miRNAs expression levels and affect to the miRNA function. However, despite accumulating evidence that inherited genetic variation in miRNA genes can contribute to the predisposition for CLL, the role of these in the risk of CLL has not been extensively studied. Therefore, the aim of this study was to find new genetic markers of risk to CLL. To that end, we made a systematic search for SNPs in miRNAs and miRNAs deregulated in CLL and genotyped 213 polymorphisms in 401 samples of Spanish individuals. The literature search resulted in more than 100 miRNAs deregulated in CLL and 43 polymorphisms studied in the disease. Out of 213 genotyped SNPs, 13 showed to be significantly associated with CLL risk. rs2682818 in pre-mature miR618 was the most significant result, with 0.49 fold decreased risk to CLL. Interestingly, a previous study associated this SNP with an increased risk of developing follicular lymphoma. Secondly, rs10173558 SNP in mir- 1302-4 showed the highest risk association, with a 5.24 fold increased risk, but there were no previous works studying it. Finally, rs61992671 in miR412, previously associated with CLL risk, showed also association in our sample. In conclusion, we find 13 alleles which could contribute to the risk of CLL. However, new large-scale studies including functional analyses will be needed to validate our findings.

Genetic Variants in MiRNA Processing Genes and Pre-MiRNAs Are Associated with the Risk of Chronic Lymphocytic Leukemia

Genome wide association studies (GWAS) have identified several low-penetrance susceptibility alleles in chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL). Nevertheless, these studies scarcely study regions that are implicated in non-coding molecules such as microRNAs (miRNAs). Abnormalities in miRNAs, as altered expression patterns and mutations, have been described in CLL, suggesting their implication in the development of the disease. Genetic variations in miRNAs can affect levels of miRNA expression if present in pre-miRNAs and in miRNA biogenesis genes or alter miRNA function if present in both target mRNA and miRNA sequences. Therefore, the present study aimed to evaluate whether polymorphisms in pre-miRNAs, and/or miRNA processing genes contribute to predisposition for CLL. A total of 91 SNPs in 107 CLL patients and 350 cancer-free controls were successfully analyzed using TaqMan Open Array technology. We found nine statistically significant associations with CLL risk after FDR correction, seven in miRNA processing genes (rs3805500 and rs6877842 in DROSHA, rs1057035 in DICER1, rs17676986 in SND1, rs9611280 in TNRC6B, rs784567 in TRBP and rs11866002 in CNOT1) and two in pre-miRNAs (rs11614913 in miR196a2 and rs2114358 in miR1206). These findings suggest that polymorphisms in genes involved in miRNAs biogenesis pathway as well as in pre-miRNAs contribute to the risk of CLL. Large-scale studies are needed to validate the current findings.