Long Term Dynamics in CO2 Allowance Prices and Carbon Capture Investments

In this paper we analyse the behaviour of the EU market for CO2 emission allowances; specifically, we focus on the contracts maturing in the Kyoto Protocol's second period of application (2008 to 2012). We calibrate the underlying parameters for the allowance price in the long run and we also calibrate those from the Spanish wholesale electricity market. This information is then used to assess the option to install a carbon capture and storage (CCS) unit in a coal-fired power plant. We use a two-dimensional binomial lattice where costs and profits are valued and the optimal investment time is determined. In other words, we study the trigger allowance prices above which it is optimal to install the capture unit immediately. We further analyse the impact of several variables on the critical prices, among them allowance price volatility and a hypothetical government subsidy. We conclude that, at current permit prices, from a financial point of view, immediate installation does not seem justified. This need not be the case, though, if carbon market parameters change dramatically and/or a specific policy to promote these units is adopted.

Replicator Dynamics and Evolutionary Stable Strategies in Heterogeneous Games

We generalise and extend the work of Iñarra and Laruelle (2011) by studying two person symmetric evolutionary games with two strategies, a heterogenous population with two possible types of individuals and incomplete information. Comparing such games with their classic homogeneous version vith complete information found in the literature, we show that for the class of anti-coordination games the only evolutionarily stable strategy vanishes. Instead, we find infinite neutrally stable strategies. We also model the evolutionary process using two different replicator dynamics setups, each with a different inheritance rule, and we show that both lead to the same results with respect to stability.

Education and the dynamics of family decisions

This paper investigates the extent to which a biased transmission of educational endowments affects fertility. To this end, we devise a version of Becker’s family decision model that takes preference change into account. Specifically, we model education as an instrument that increases the autonomy (to prefer), and autonomy as an instrument of preference-change for household-structures. The empirical validity of the proposed model is examined for the European setting using the European Community Household Panel. In the context of the model, empirical findings imply the following. On the one hand, both preference for quantity and preference for bequest for each offspring (quality) increases with education, while preference for current consumption decreases. On the other hand, education is found to be negatively correlated with fertility, at a decreasing rate. Therefore, the paper provides a useful additional toolkit for public policy evaluation. It explains how public policies oriented toward the guarantee of personal freedoms, such as the expansion of education and autonomy, are likely to guarantee the same freedoms for subsequent generations.

Structural relaxation and chain dynamics in polymer melts : a computational investigation on the role of the intramolecular barriers

149 p. : il. col.

The structure and the dynamics of poly(vinyl methyl ether) PVME and in PVME concentrated water solution : a study by neutron scattering and fully atomistic molecular dynamics simulations

175 p. : il.

Dynamics of pneumococcal nasopharyngeal carriage in healthy children attending a day care center in northern Spain. Influence of detection techniques on the results

8 p.

Emergence of Cooperation in Heterogeneous Population: A Discrete-Time Replicator Dynamics Analysis

The emergence of cooperation is analyzed in heterogeneous populations where individuals can be classified in two groups according to their phenotypic appearance. Phenotype recognition is assumed for all individuals: individuals are able to identify the type of every other individual, but fail to recognize their own type, and thus behave under partial information conditions. The interactions between individuals are described by 2 × 2 symmetric games where individuals can either cooperate or defect. The evolution of such populations is studied in the framework of evolutionary game by means of the replicator dynamics. Overlapping generations are considered, so the replicator equations are formulated in discrete-time form. The well-posedness conditions of the system are derived. Depending on the parameters of the game, a restriction may exist for the generation length. The stability analysis of the dynamical system is carried out and a detailed description of the behavior of trajectories starting from the interior of the state-space is given. We find that, provided the conditions of well-posedness are verified, the linear stability of monomorphic states in the discrete-time replicator coincides with the one of the continuous case. Specific from the discrete-time case, a relaxed restriction for the generation length is derived, for which larger time-steps can be used without compromising the well-posedness of the replicator system.

Long-lived oscillatory incoherent electron dynamics in molecules: trans-polyacetylene oligomers

We identify an intriguing feature of the electron-vibrational dynamics of molecular systems via a computational examination of trans-polyacetylene oligomers. Here, via the vibronic interactions, the decay of an electron in the conduction band resonantly excites an electron in the valence band, and vice versa, leading to oscillatory exchange of electronic population between two distinct electronic states that lives for up to tens of picoseconds. The oscillatory structure is reminiscent of beating patterns between quantum states and is strongly suggestive of the presence of long-lived molecular electronic coherence. Significantly, however, a detailed analysis of the electronic coherence properties shows that the oscillatory structure arises from a purely incoherent process. These results were obtained by propagating the coupled dynamics of electronic and vibrational degrees of freedom in a mixed quantum-classical study of the Su-Schrieffer-Heeger Hamiltonian for polyacetylene. The incoherent process is shown to occur between degenerate electronic states with distinct electronic configurations that are indirectly coupled via a third auxiliary state by vibronic interactions. A discussion of how to construct electronic superposition states in molecules that are truly robust to decoherence is also presented

Dynamics of Streptococcus pneumoniae Serotypes Causing Acute Otitis Media Isolated from Children with Spontaneous Middle-Ear Drainage over a 12-Year Period (1999–2010) in a Region of Northern Spain

10 p.

Manipulation of domain wall dynamics in amorphous microwires through the magnetoelastic anisotropy

We studied the effect of magnetoelastic anisotropy on domain wall (DW) dynamics and remagnetization process of magnetically bistable Fe-Co-rich microwires with metallic nucleus diameters (from 1.4 to 22 mu m). We manipulated the magnetoelastic anisotropy applying the tensile stresses and changing the magnetostriction constant and strength of the internal stresses. Microwires of the same composition of metallic nucleus but with different geometries exhibit different magnetic field dependence of DW velocity with different slopes. Application of stresses resulted in decrease of the DW velocity, v, and DW mobility, S. Quite fast DW propagation (v until 2,500 m/s at H about 30 A/m) has been observed in low magnetostrictive magnetically bistable Co56Fe8Ni10Si10B16 microwires. Consequently, we observed certain correlation between the magnetoelastic energy and DW dynamics in microwires: decreasing the magnetoelastic energy, K (me), DW velocity increases.

Domain wall dynamics of magnetically bistable microwires

EMM-FM2011 – First Euro Mediterranean Meeting on Functionalized Materials, edited by Cheikhrouhou, A. 1st Euro Mediterranean Meeting on Functionalized Materials (EMM-FM). Sousse, TUNISIA . Sep. 06-10, 2011

Using the system dynamics paradigm in teaching and learning technological university subjets

2nd International Conference on Education and New Learning Technologies

An Alternative View of the US Price-Dividend Ratio Dynamics

As a necessary condition for the validity of the present value model, the price-dividend ratio must be stationary. However, significant market episodes seem to provide evidence of prices significantly drifting apart from dividends while other episodes show prices anchoring back to dividends. This paper investigates the stationarity of this ratio in the context of a Markov- switching model à la Hamilton (1989) where an asymmetric speed of adjustment towards a unique attractor is introduced. A three-regime model displays the best regime identification and reveals that the first part of the 90’s boom (1985-1995) and the post-war period are characterized by a stationary state featuring a slow reverting process to a relatively high attractor. Interestingly, the latter part of the 90’s boom (1996-2000), characterized by a growing price-dividend ratio, is entirely attributed to a stationary regime featuring a highly reverting process to the attractor. Finally, the post-Lehman Brothers episode of the subprime crisis can be classified into a temporary nonstationary regime.