Predictive score for mortality in patients with COPD exacerbations attending hospital emergency departments

Background: Limited information is available about predictors of short-term outcomes in patients with exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (eCOPD) attending an emergency department (ED). Such information could help stratify these patients and guide medical decision-making. The aim of this study was to develop a clinical prediction rule for short-term mortality during hospital admission or within a week after the index ED visit. Methods: This was a prospective cohort study of patients with eCOPD attending the EDs of 16 participating hospitals. Recruitment started in June 2008 and ended in September 2010. Information on possible predictor variables was recorded during the time the patient was evaluated in the ED, at the time a decision was made to admit the patient to the hospital or discharge home, and during follow-up. Main short-term outcomes were death during hospital admission or within 1 week of discharge to home from the ED, as well as at death within 1 month of the index ED visit. Multivariate logistic regression models were developed in a derivation sample and validated in a validation sample. The score was compared with other published prediction rules for patients with stable COPD. Results: In total, 2,487 patients were included in the study. Predictors of death during hospital admission, or within 1 week of discharge to home from the ED were patient age, baseline dyspnea, previous need for long-term home oxygen therapy or non-invasive mechanical ventilation, altered mental status, and use of inspiratory accessory muscles or paradoxical breathing upon ED arrival (area under the curve (AUC) = 0.85). Addition of arterial blood gas parameters (oxygen and carbon dioxide partial pressures (PO2 and PCO2)) and pH) did not improve the model. The same variables were predictors of death at 1 month (AUC = 0.85). Compared with other commonly used tools for predicting the severity of COPD in stable patients, our rule was significantly better. Conclusions: Five clinical predictors easily available in the ED, and also in the primary care setting, can be used to create a simple and easily obtained score that allows clinicians to stratify patients with eCOPD upon ED arrival and guide the medical decision-making process.

Proposal and validation of methodologies for the categorisation of continuous variables in the development of prediction models

158 p.

High-Throughput Sequencing of microRNAs in Peripheral Blood Mononuclear Cells: Identification of Potential Weight Loss Biomarkers

INTRODUCTION: MicroRNAs (miRNAs) are being increasingly studied in relation to energy metabolism and body composition homeostasis. Indeed, the quantitative analysis of miRNAs expression in different adiposity conditions may contribute to understand the intimate mechanisms participating in body weight control and to find new biomarkers with diagnostic or prognostic value in obesity management. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was the search for miRNAs in blood cells whose expression could be used as prognostic biomarkers of weight loss. METHODS: Ten Caucasian obese women were selected among the participants in a weight-loss trial that consisted in following an energy-restricted treatment. Weight loss was considered unsuccessful when <5% of initial body weight (non-responders) and successful when >5% (responders). At baseline, total miRNA isolated from peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMC) was sequenced with SOLiD v4. The miRNA sequencing data were validated by RT-PCR. RESULTS: Differential baseline expression of several miRNAs was found between responders and non-responders. Two miRNAs were up-regulated in the non-responder group (mir-935 and mir-4772) and three others were down-regulated (mir-223, mir-224 and mir-376b). Both mir-935 and mir-4772 showed relevant associations with the magnitude of weight loss, although the expression of other transcripts (mir-874, mir-199b, mir-766, mir-589 and mir-148b) also correlated with weight loss. CONCLUSIONS: This research addresses the use of high-throughput sequencing technologies in the search for miRNA expression biomarkers in obesity, by determining the miRNA transcriptome of PBMC. Basal expression of different miRNAs, particularly mir-935 and mir-4772, could be prognostic biomarkers and may forecast the response to a hypocaloric diet.

A behavior model for blood donors and marketing strategies to retain and attract them

Objective: analyze and propose a theoretical model that describes blood donor decisions to help staff working in blood banks (nurses and others) in their efforts to capture and retain donors. Methods: analysis of several studies on the motivations to give blood in Spain over the last six years, as well as past literature on the topic, the authors' experiences in the last 25 years in over 15 Non Governmental Organizations with different levels of responsibilities, their experiences as blood donors and the informal interviews developed during those 25 years. Results: a model is proposed with different internal and external factors that influence blood donation, as well as the different stages of the decision-making process. Conclusion: the knowledge of the donation process permits the development of marketing strategies that help to increase donors and donations.