9 resultados para Auto-Regressive and Moving-Average Model with exogenous inputs
em Archivo Digital para la Docencia y la Investigación - Repositorio Institucional de la Universidad del País Vasco
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This paper investigates optimal fiscal policy in a static multisector model. A Ramsey type planner chooses tax rates on each good type as well as spending levels on each good type subject to an exogenous total expenditure constraint and requirements that some minimum amount of spending be undertaken in each sector. It is shown that optimal policy does not equally spend in each sector but instead results in one of the minimum expenditure constraints binding.
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During the last two decades, analysis of 1/f noise in cognitive science has led to a considerable progress in the way we understand the organization of our mental life. However, there is still a lack of specific models providing explanations of how 1/f noise is generated in coupled brain-body-environment systems, since existing models and experiments typically target either externally observable behaviour or isolated neuronal systems but do not address the interplay between neuronal mechanisms and sensorimotor dynamics. We present a conceptual model of a minimal neurorobotic agent solving a behavioural task that makes it possible to relate mechanistic (neurodynamic) and behavioural levels of description. The model consists of a simulated robot controlled by a network of Kuramoto oscillators with homeostatic plasticity and the ability to develop behavioural preferences mediated by sensorimotor patterns. With only three oscillators, this simple model displays self-organized criticality in the form of robust 1/f noise and a wide multifractal spectrum. We show that the emergence of self-organized criticality and 1/f noise in our model is the result of three simultaneous conditions: a) non-linear interaction dynamics capable of generating stable collective patterns, b) internal plastic mechanisms modulating the sensorimotor flows, and c) strong sensorimotor coupling with the environment that induces transient metastable neurodynamic regimes. We carry out a number of experiments to show that both synaptic plasticity and strong sensorimotor coupling play a necessary role, as constituents of self-organized criticality, in the generation of 1/f noise. The experiments also shown to be useful to test the robustness of 1/f scaling comparing the results of different techniques. We finally discuss the role of conceptual models as mediators between nomothetic and mechanistic models and how they can inform future experimental research where self-organized critically includes sensorimotor coupling among the essential interaction-dominant process giving rise to 1/f noise.
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Documento de trabajo
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Wage stickiness is incorporated to a New-Keynesian model with variable capital to drive endogenous unemployment uctuations de ned as the log di¤erence between aggregate labor supply and aggregate labor demand. We estimated such model using Bayesian econometric techniques and quarterly U.S. data. The second-moment statistics of the unemployment rate in the model give a good t to those observed in U.S. data. Our results also show that wage-push shocks, demand shifts and monetary policy shocks are the three major determinants of unemployment fl uctuations. Compared to an estimated New-Keynesian model without unemployment (Smets and Wouters, 2007): wage stickiness is higher, labor supply elasticity is lower, the slope of the New-Keynesian Phillips curve is flatter, and the importance of technology innovations on output variability increases.
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In this work we investigate if a small fraction of quarks and gluons, which escaped hadronization and survived as a uniformly spread perfect fluid, can play the role of both dark matter and dark energy. This fluid, as developed in [1], is characterized by two main parameters: beta, related to the amount of quarks and gluons which act as dark matter; and gamma, acting as the cosmological constant. We explore the feasibility of this model at cosmological scales using data from type Ia Supernovae (SNeIa), Long Gamma-Ray Bursts (LGRB) and direct observational Hubble data. We find that: (i) in general, beta cannot be constrained by SNeIa data nor by LGRB or H(z) data; (ii) gamma can be constrained quite well by all three data sets, contributing with approximate to 78% to the energy matter content; (iii) when a strong prior on (only) baryonic matter is assumed, the two parameters of the model are constrained successfully. (C) 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.
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This paper investigates the errors of the solutions as well as the shadowing property of a class of nonlinear differential equations which possess unique solutions on a certain interval for any admissible initial condition. The class of differential equations is assumed to be approximated by well-posed truncated Taylor series expansions up to a certain order obtained about certain, in general nonperiodic, sampling points t(i) is an element of [t(0), t(J)] for i = 0, 1, . . . , J of the solution. Two examples are provided.
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Introduction The identification of the genetic risk factors that could discriminate non-thrombotic from thrombotic antiphospholipid antibodies (aPLA) carriers will improve prognosis of these patients. Several human studies have shown the presence of aPLAs associated with atherosclerotic plaque, which is a known risk factor for thrombosis. Hence, in order to determine the implication of atherosclerosis in the risk of developing thrombosis in aPLA positive patients, we performed a genetic association study with 3 candidate genes, APOH, LDLR and PCSK9. Material & Methods For genetic association study we analyzed 190 aPLA carriers -100 with non-thrombotic events and 90 with thrombotic events-and 557 healthy controls. Analyses were performed by chi(2) test and were corrected by false discovery rate. To evaluate the functional implication of the newly established susceptibility loci, we performed expression analyses in 86 aPLA carrier individuals (43 with thrombotic manifestations and 43 without it) and in 45 healthy controls. Results Our results revealed significant associations after correction in SNPs located in LDLR gene with aPLA carriers and thrombotic aPLA carriers, when compared with healthy controls. The most significant association in LDLR gene was found between SNP rs129083082 and aPLA carriers in recessive model (adjusted P-value = 2.55 x 10(-3); OR = 2.18; 95% CI = 1.49-3.21). Furthermore, our work detected significant allelic association after correction between thrombotic aPLA carriers and healthy controls in SNP rs562556 located in PCSK9 gene (adjusted P-value = 1.03 x 10(-2); OR = 1.60; 95% CI = 1.24-2.06). Expression level study showed significantly decreased expression level of LDLR gene in aPLA carriers (P-value < 0.0001; 95% CI 0.16-2.10; SE 0.38-1.27) in comparison to the control group. Discussion Our work has identified LDLR gene as a new susceptibility gene associated with the development of thrombosis in aPLA carriers, describing for the first time the deregulation of LDLR expression in individuals with aPLAs. Besides, thrombotic aPLA carriers also showed significant association with PCSK9 gene, a regulator of LDLR plasma levels. These results highlight the importance of atherosclerotic processes in the development of thrombosis in patients with aPLA.
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Background: Cognitive impairments are seen in first psychotic episode (FEP) patients. The neurobiological underpinnings that might underlie these changes remain unknown. The aim of this study is to investigate whether Brain Derived Neurotrophic Factor (BDNF) levels are associated with cognitive impairment in FEP patients compared with healthy controls. Methods: 45 FEP patients and 45 healthy controls matched by age, gender and educational level were selected from the Basque Country area of Spain. Plasma BDNF levels were assessed in healthy controls and in patients. A battery of cognitive tests was applied to both groups, with the patients being assessed at 6 months after the acute episode and only in those with a clinical response to treatment. Results: Plasma BDNF levels were altered in patients compared with the control group. In FEP patients, we observed a positive association between BDNF levels at six months and five cognitive domains (learning ability,immediate and delayed memory, abstract thinking and processing speed) which persisted after controlling for medications prescribed, drug use, intelligence quotient (IQ) and negative symptoms. In the healthy control group, BDNF levels were not associated with cognitive test scores. Conclusion: Our results suggest that BDNF is associated with the cognitive impairment seen after a FEP. Further investigations of the role of this neurotrophin in the symptoms associated with psychosis onset are warranted.
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248 p.