Endogenous fisheries management in a stochastic model: Why do fishery agencies use TAC

The aim of this paper is to explain under which circumstances using TACs as instrument to manage a fishery along with fishing periods may be interesting from a regulatory point of view. In order to do this, the deterministic analysis of Homans and Wilen (1997)and Anderson (2000) is extended to a stochastic scenario where the resource cannot be measured accurately. The resulting endogenous stochastic model is numerically solved for finding the optimal control rules in the Iberian sardine stock. Three relevant conclusions can be highligted from simulations. First, the higher the uncertainty about the state of the stock is, the lower the probability of closing the fishery is. Second, the use of TACs as management instrument in fisheries already regulated with fishing periods leads to: i) An increase of the optimal season length and harvests, especially for medium and high number of licences, ii) An improvement of the biological and economic variables when the size of the fleet is large; and iii) Eliminate the extinction risk for the resource. And third, the regulator would rather select the number of licences and do not restrict the season length.

Reconciling yield stability with international fisheries agencies precautionary preferences: the role of non constant discount factors in age structured models

International fisheries agencies recommend exploitation paths that satisfy two features. First, for precautionary reasons exploitation paths should avoid high fishing mortality in those fisheries where the biomass is depleted to a degree that jeopardise the stock's capacity to produce the Maximum Sustainable Yield (MSY). Second, for economic and social reasons, captures should be as stable (smooth) as possible over time. In this article we show that a conflict between these two interests may occur when seeking for optimal exploitation paths using age structured bioeconomic approach. Our results show that this conflict be overtaken by using non constant discount factors that value future stocks considering their relative intertemporal scarcity.

Why Economists Reject Long-Term Fisheries Management Plans?

Most fisheries agencies conduct biological and economic assessments independently. This independent conduct may lead to situations in which economists reject management plans proposed by biologists. The objective of this study is to show how to find optimal strategies that may satisfy biologists and economists' conditions. In particular we characterize optimal fishing trajectories that maximize the present value of a discounted economic indicator taking into account the age-structure of the population as in stock assessment methodologies. This approach is applied to the Northern Stock of Hake. Our main empirical findings are: i) Optimal policy may be far away from any of the classical scenarios proposed by biologists, ii) The more the future is discounted, the higher the likelihood of finding contradictions among scenarios proposed by biologists and conclusions from economic analysis, iii) Optimal management reduces the risk of the stock falling under precautionary levels, especially if the future is not discounted to much, and iv) Optimal stationary fishing rate may be very different depending on the economic indicator used as reference.

Reference Points and Optimal Management in Stochastic Age-Structured Fisheries Models

The purpose of this article is to characterize dynamic optimal harvesting trajectories that maximize discounted utility assuming an age-structured population model, in the same line as Tahvonen (2009). The main novelty of our study is that uses as an age-structured population model the standard stochastic cohort framework applied in Virtual Population Analysis for fish stock assessment. This allows us to compare optimal harvesting in a discounted economic context with standard reference points used by fisheries agencies for long term management plans (e.g. Fmsy). Our main findings are the following. First, optimal steady state is characterized and sufficient conditions that guarantees its existence and uniqueness for the general case of n cohorts are shown. It is also proved that the optimal steady state coincides with the traditional target Fmsy when the utility function to be maximized is the yield and the discount rate is zero. Second, an algorithm to calculate the optimal path that easily drives the resource to the steady state is developed. And third, the algorithm is applied to the Northern Stock of hake. Results show that management plans based exclusively on traditional reference targets as Fmsy may drive fishery economic results far from the optimal.

La demanda de telefonía fija y móvil: Una aplicación de redes neuronales artificiales

[ES] El catalogar a un determinado bien o servicio como una de las «extensiones de los sentidos y las funciones humanas de la vista, el oído y el tacto», muestra la importancia del papel que desempeñan en nuestras vidas, muestra el desarrollo que alcanzaron impulsadas por las mismas necesidades de los seres humanos, muestra un mercado dinámico e importante. El servicio de telefonía móvil o celular es el desencadenador de estas expresiones y además tema de comentario, investigación y preocupación de comunidades científicas y organismos internacionales como el World Economic Forum de Davos.

Determinantes de la intención del consumidor de ir a un destino turístico. Aplicación al caso de "Mundo Maya-México"

[ES] Cada destino turístico tiene una marca que puede elegir el consumidor a la hora de viajar. Este trabajo examina, a través de un modelo causal que contrastamos empíricamente para el caso de Mundo Maya-México, el papel que desempeña la reputación, las emociones y la confianza en la intención de compra de los consumidores de un destino turístico.

Tracking the evolution of waste recycling research using overlay maps of science

Tracking the evolution of research in waste recycling science (WRS) can be valuable for environmental agencies, as well as for recycling businesses. Maps of science are visual, easily readable representations of the cognitive structure of a branch of science, a particular area of research or the global spectrum of scientific production. They are generally built upon evidence collected from reliable sources of information, such as patent and scientific publication databases. This study uses the methodology developed by Rafols et al. (2010) to make a “double overlay map” of WRS upon a basemap reflecting the cognitive structure of all journal-published science, for the years 2005 and 2010. The analysis has taken into account the cognitive areas where WRS articles are published and the areas from where it takes its intellectual nourishing, paying special attention to the growing trends of the key areas. Interpretation of results lead to the conclusion that extraction of energy from waste will probably be an important research topic in the future, along with developments in general chemistry and chemical engineering oriented to the recovery of valuable materials from waste. Agricultural and material sciences, together with the combined economics, politics and geography field, are areas with which WRS shows a relevant and ever increasing cognitive relationship.

Análisis de las publicaciones del personal docente e investigador de las facultades españolas de Bellas Artes

8 p.

Análisis del mercado del rating de las emisiones de titulación en España (1993-2011)

[ES] La calificación crediticia externa es un elemento clave para el buen fin de las operaciones de titulización. No obstante, las agencias de calificación han sido objeto de una intensa controversia, cuestionándose su fiabilidad y objetividad. En este trabajo abundamos en esta cuestión, analizando la distribución de los ratings otorgados a las emisiones de bonos de titulización llevadas a cabo en España (1993-2011), uno de los países más activos en cuanto al volumen de emisiones, llegaron a ocupar el segundo puesto a nivel europeo y el tercero a nivel mundial. Aportamos evidencia sobre ciertas anomalías entre las que cabe destacar la estructura oligopolística del mercado del rating, la fragilidad desde una perspectiva histórica de las calificaciones otorgadas, y la existencia de patrones no homogéneos en la elección de la agencia de calificación, tanto si se tiene en cuenta la sociedad gestora, como el colateral de respaldo.

Multirating decision model validation: the relevance of the quality of the securitization issues

Rating enables the information asymmetry existing in the issuer-investor relationship to be reduced, particularly for issues with a high degree of complexity, as is the case of securitizations. However, there may be a serious conflict of interest between the issuer’s choice and remuneration of the agency and the credit rating awarded, resulting in lower quality and information power of the published rating. In this paper, we propose an explicative model of the number of ratings requested, by analyzing the relevance of the number of ratings to measure the reliability, where multirating is shown to be associated to the quality, size, liquidity and the degree of information asymmetry relating to the issue. Thus, we consider that the regulatory changes that foster the widespread publication of simultaneous ratings could help to alleviate the problem of rating model arbitrage and the crisis of confidence in credit ratings in general and in the securitization issues, in particular.

Los determinantes de la rentabilidad primaria de los bonos de titulización hipotecaria: la influencia de las estructuras multitramo

[ES] Este artículo analiza los determinantes de la rentabilidad primaria de los bonos de titulización hipotecaria (conocidos en la literatura como mortgage backed securities, o MBS) emitidos en España durante el periodo 1993-2011, periodo en el que el mercado español llegó a convertirse en el más importante de Europa continental. Los resultados obtenidos sobre el análisis de la población completa de MBS emitidos (262 tramos configurados sobre 94 fondos de titulización) indican que la estructuración multitramo de los MBS ha ayudado a reducir el riesgo percibido global de las emisiones de MBS, mediante la generación de mercados más completos y la reducción de los problemas derivados de la existencia de asimetrías informativas implícitas en el proceso de selección de los activos transmitidos por parte de la entidad cedente. Esta reducción del riesgo percibido ha tenido un efecto directo sobre la rentabilidad ofrecida por los bonos de titulización emitidos. Además, no se encuentran evidencias de que la emisión de MBS persiga la transmisión efectiva de riesgos, más bien al contrario. Las Entidades de crédito, por lo general, han retenido los tramos de primeras pérdidas, lo que ha contribuido a mantener en niveles muy bajos (por debajo de la rentabilidad de la deuda soberana) la rentabilidad ofrecida por los MBS. Precisamente, el escaso diferencial ofrecido por los bonos de titulización se debe a que los tramos retenidos no han ofrecido primas de rentabilidad ajustadas al riesgo inherente.

Does rating shopping exist in spanish securitization issues?

[EN] Debt issue credit ratings can lead to conflicts of interest as the issuer itself is entrusted with contracting and compensating the rating agency. Into the bargain, the credit rating agency may be involved in designing the issues that the same agency subsequently rates. Credit rating agencies thus could have incentives to rate issues advantageously. Given the economic importance of this issue, in this paper we have proposed to analyze this phenomenon, known as rating shopping in academic literature, for Spanish market securitization issues for the period of time comprehensive from January 1993 to December 2011. In sum 3,665 published ratings are been analysed, for an issued nominal amount of 791,090 million Euros. The results show an association between the credit rating agency contracted and the mean rating awarded. Significant differences are observed in the ratings associated to the contracting manager (or special purpose vehicle SPV- manager firm), to the number of ratings or to the type of collateral. Furthermore, a pattern compatible with rating shopping was observed for some types of collateral: abnormally high market shares associated with certain agencies awarding unusually generous ratings. However, this phenomenon is not seen to be widespread on the rating market associated to Spanish securitization issues.