Discounting the value of natural resources in costbenefit analysis: a case study for policy making

4 p.

Pulse vs. Optimal Stationary Fishing: The Northern Stock of Hake

Pulse fishing may be a global optimal strategy in multicohort fisheries. In this article we compare the pulse fishing solutions obtained by using global numerical methods with the analytical stationary optimal solution. This allows us to quantify the potential benefits associated with the use of periodic fishing in the Northern Stock of hake. Results show that: first, management plans based exclusively on traditional reference targets as Fmsy may drive fishery economic results far from the optimal; second, global optimal solutions would imply, in a cyclical manner, the closure of the fishery for some periods and third, second best stationary policies with stable employment only reduce optimal present value of discounted profit in a 2%.

Lessons from the northern hake long-term management plan: Could the economic assessment have accepted it?

An economic expert working group (STECF/SGBRE-07-05) was convened in 2007 for evaluating the potential economic consequences of a Long-Term Management Plan for the northern hake. Analyzing all the scenarios proposed by biological assessment, they found that keeping the F in the status quo level was the best policy in terms of net present values for both yield and profits. This result is counter intuitive because it may indicate that effort costs do no affect the economic reference points. However, it is well accepted that the inclusion of costs affects negatively the economic reference points. In this paper, applying a dynamic agestructured model to the northern hake, we show that the optimal fishing mortality that maximizes the net present value of profits is lower than Fmax.

Why Economists Reject Long-Term Fisheries Management Plans?

Most fisheries agencies conduct biological and economic assessments independently. This independent conduct may lead to situations in which economists reject management plans proposed by biologists. The objective of this study is to show how to find optimal strategies that may satisfy biologists and economists' conditions. In particular we characterize optimal fishing trajectories that maximize the present value of a discounted economic indicator taking into account the age-structure of the population as in stock assessment methodologies. This approach is applied to the Northern Stock of Hake. Our main empirical findings are: i) Optimal policy may be far away from any of the classical scenarios proposed by biologists, ii) The more the future is discounted, the higher the likelihood of finding contradictions among scenarios proposed by biologists and conclusions from economic analysis, iii) Optimal management reduces the risk of the stock falling under precautionary levels, especially if the future is not discounted to much, and iv) Optimal stationary fishing rate may be very different depending on the economic indicator used as reference.

Markov Switching Risk Premium and the term structure of interest rates. Empirical evidence from US post-war interest rates

This paper considers the basic present value model of interest rates under rational expectations with two additional features. First, following McCallum (1994), the model assumes a policy reaction function where changes in the short-term interest rate are determined by the long-short spread. Second, the short-term interest rate and the risk premium processes are characterized by a Markov regime-switching model. Using US post-war interest rate data, this paper finds evidence that a two-regime switching model fits the data better than the basic model. The estimation results also show the presence of two alternative states displaying quite different features.

An Alternative View of the US Price-Dividend Ratio Dynamics

As a necessary condition for the validity of the present value model, the price-dividend ratio must be stationary. However, significant market episodes seem to provide evidence of prices significantly drifting apart from dividends while other episodes show prices anchoring back to dividends. This paper investigates the stationarity of this ratio in the context of a Markov- switching model à la Hamilton (1989) where an asymmetric speed of adjustment towards a unique attractor is introduced. A three-regime model displays the best regime identification and reveals that the first part of the 90’s boom (1985-1995) and the post-war period are characterized by a stationary state featuring a slow reverting process to a relatively high attractor. Interestingly, the latter part of the 90’s boom (1996-2000), characterized by a growing price-dividend ratio, is entirely attributed to a stationary regime featuring a highly reverting process to the attractor. Finally, the post-Lehman Brothers episode of the subprime crisis can be classified into a temporary nonstationary regime.

Breaking the 400 ppm barrier: Physical and Social implications of the recent CO2 rise

6 p.

Rompiendo la barrera de las 400 ppm: implicaciones físicas y sociales del reciente aumento de CO2

6 p.

400 ppm-ko langa hautsi da: CO2-kontzentrazioaren igoeraren ondorio fisiko eta sozialak

6 p.

The Determinants of Energy Efficiency Investments in the U.S.

31 p.

LDLR and PCSK9 Are Associated with the Presence of Antiphospholipid Antibodies and the Development of Thrombosis in aPLA Carriers

Introduction The identification of the genetic risk factors that could discriminate non-thrombotic from thrombotic antiphospholipid antibodies (aPLA) carriers will improve prognosis of these patients. Several human studies have shown the presence of aPLAs associated with atherosclerotic plaque, which is a known risk factor for thrombosis. Hence, in order to determine the implication of atherosclerosis in the risk of developing thrombosis in aPLA positive patients, we performed a genetic association study with 3 candidate genes, APOH, LDLR and PCSK9. Material & Methods For genetic association study we analyzed 190 aPLA carriers -100 with non-thrombotic events and 90 with thrombotic events-and 557 healthy controls. Analyses were performed by chi(2) test and were corrected by false discovery rate. To evaluate the functional implication of the newly established susceptibility loci, we performed expression analyses in 86 aPLA carrier individuals (43 with thrombotic manifestations and 43 without it) and in 45 healthy controls. Results Our results revealed significant associations after correction in SNPs located in LDLR gene with aPLA carriers and thrombotic aPLA carriers, when compared with healthy controls. The most significant association in LDLR gene was found between SNP rs129083082 and aPLA carriers in recessive model (adjusted P-value = 2.55 x 10(-3); OR = 2.18; 95% CI = 1.49-3.21). Furthermore, our work detected significant allelic association after correction between thrombotic aPLA carriers and healthy controls in SNP rs562556 located in PCSK9 gene (adjusted P-value = 1.03 x 10(-2); OR = 1.60; 95% CI = 1.24-2.06). Expression level study showed significantly decreased expression level of LDLR gene in aPLA carriers (P-value < 0.0001; 95% CI 0.16-2.10; SE 0.38-1.27) in comparison to the control group. Discussion Our work has identified LDLR gene as a new susceptibility gene associated with the development of thrombosis in aPLA carriers, describing for the first time the deregulation of LDLR expression in individuals with aPLAs. Besides, thrombotic aPLA carriers also showed significant association with PCSK9 gene, a regulator of LDLR plasma levels. These results highlight the importance of atherosclerotic processes in the development of thrombosis in patients with aPLA.