The long road of climate negotiations: From Kyoto to Paris stopping over in Doha

4 p.

Divergences in the Long Run Trends in the Price of Energy and of Energy Services

32 p.

Long Run Trends in Energy-Related External Costs

30 p.

The Long Run Demand for Lighting: Elasticities and Rebound Effects in Different Phases of Economic Development

25 p.

Long Run Demand for Energy Services: the Role of Economic and Technological Development

36 p.

The radio is dead. Long live the radio : Leioan, 2011ko azaroaren 24 eta 25ean egindako Ikus-Entzunezko Komunikazioa eta Publizitateko Nazioarteko I. Kongresuaren aktak

A menudo, el deslumbramiento de los nuevos medios impide el reconocimiento debido a otras alternativas de comunicación social que, de manera persistente y discreta, han llegado a confundirse con nuestra propia vida. Es el caso de este medio invisible, que bien se merecía un congreso dedicado a la mejor radio y a uno de sus mayores inspiradores, Bertolt Brecht, quien ochenta años atrás imaginó una radio interactiva cuando no existía la tecnología necesaria para hacer realidad su sueño. Hoy como ayer, las voces comunicantes de la radio cuentan mil y una historias que los oyentes siguen como si les fuera la vida en ello. Quizá la radio no esté a la cabeza de las industrias creativas, pero su magia sigue desatando la imaginación y la creatividad de las audiencias. Es por eso, y por su cercanía, que da tanta confianza y es tan querida. Nada más lejos de nuestra intención que la autocomplacencia, un virus tanto o más peligroso que el ruido y la cacofonía radiofónica, que de todo hay en el dial. Los participantes en este encuentro nos hemos conjurado a favor de una radio abierta; hecha con cabeza y corazón, como la vida misma; y más acogedora con los jóvenes creadores, que no lo saben todo de la radio, pero, por eso mismo, están mejor preparados para llevar el ritmo que bailan las neuronas de las nuevas audiencias. Una radio que da la palabra a la gente, sabe escuchar, y no se agota en el ejercicio inútil de escucharse a sí misma.

Is there a subgroup of long-term evolution among patients with advanced lung cancer?: Hints from the analysis of survival curves from cancer registry data

Background: Recently, with the access of low toxicity biological and targeted therapies, evidence of the existence of a long-term survival subpopulation of cancer patients is appearing. We have studied an unselected population with advanced lung cancer to look for evidence of multimodality in survival distribution, and estimate the proportion of long-term survivors. Methods: We used survival data of 4944 patients with non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) stages IIIb-IV at diagnostic, registered in the National Cancer Registry of Cuba (NCRC) between January 1998 and December 2006. We fitted one-component survival model and two-component mixture models to identify short-and long-term survivors. Bayesian information criterion was used for model selection. Results: For all of the selected parametric distributions the two components model presented the best fit. The population with short-term survival (almost 4 months median survival) represented 64% of patients. The population of long-term survival included 35% of patients, and showed a median survival around 12 months. None of the patients of short-term survival was still alive at month 24, while 10% of the patients of long-term survival died afterwards. Conclusions: There is a subgroup showing long-term evolution among patients with advanced lung cancer. As survival rates continue to improve with the new generation of therapies, prognostic models considering short-and long-term survival subpopulations should be considered in clinical research.

The Spanish Pension System: Overview and Long-Term Projections

In the middle of the so-called pension crisis, the ageing of population and the sharp decrease in affiliations to Social Security are threatening the well-functioning of the Spanish public pension system. The purpose of this paper is to present the main challenges to be faced by the Spanish pension system, as well as to shed light on the main determinants that will condition the evolution of pension expenditure over GDP along the following decades. This quantitative analysis, which considers the 2011 and 2013 pension reforms, uses the latest data on the Spanish demographic, labor market and institutional factors in order to project the evolution of the system from the expenditure side up to 2060. For the purpose of analyzing the dynamics and the underlying drivers of pension expenditure, the so-called aggregate accounting approach will be utilized. The alternative scenarios proposed allow for exploring the robustness of the results within the baseline scenario, which constitutes the reference point of projections in the exercise. The analysis concludes that, by the end of the projected period, Spain will count on a similar public pension expenditure ratio as the current one.

Effects of Spring Temperatures on the Strength of Selection on Timing of Reproduction in a Long-Distance Migratory Bird

Climate change has differentially affected the timing of seasonal events for interacting trophic levels, and this has often led to increased selection on seasonal timing. Yet, the environmental variables driving this selection have rarely been identified, limiting our ability to predict future ecological impacts of climate change. Using a dataset spanning 31 years from a natural population of pied flycatchers (Ficedula hypoleuca), we show that directional selection on timing of reproduction intensified in the first two decades (1980-2000) but weakened during the last decade (2001-2010). Against expectation, this pattern could not be explained by the temporal variation in the phenological mismatch with food abundance. We therefore explored an alternative hypothesis that selection on timing was affected by conditions individuals experience when arriving in spring at the breeding grounds: arriving early in cold conditions may reduce survival. First, we show that in female recruits, spring arrival date in the first breeding year correlates positively with hatch date; hence, early-hatched individuals experience colder conditions at arrival than late-hatched individuals. Second, we show that when temperatures at arrival in the recruitment year were high, early-hatched young had a higher recruitment probability than when temperatures were low. We interpret this as a potential cost of arriving early in colder years, and climate warming may have reduced this cost. We thus show that higher temperatures in the arrival year of recruits were associated with stronger selection for early reproduction in the years these birds were born. As arrival temperatures in the beginning of the study increased, but recently declined again, directional selection on timing of reproduction showed a nonlinear change. We demonstrate that environmental conditions with a lag of up to two years can alter selection on phenological traits in natural populations, something that has important implications for our understanding of how climate can alter patterns of selection in natural populations.

Long-Term Burden and Respiratory Effects of Respiratory Syncytial Virus Hospitalization in Preterm Infants — The SPRING Study

The health status of premature infants born 32(1)-35(0) weeks' gestational age (wGA) hospitalized for RSV infection in the first year of life (cases; n = 125) was compared to that of premature infants not hospitalized for RSV (controls; n = 362) through 6 years. The primary endpoints were the percentage of children with wheezing between 2-6 years and lung function at 6 years of age. Secondary endpoints included quality of life, healthcare resource use, and allergic sensitization. A significantly higher proportion of cases than controls experienced recurrent wheezing through 6 years of age (46.7% vs. 27.4%; p = 0.001). The vast majority of lung function tests appeared normal at 6 years of age in both cohorts. In children with pulmonary function in the lower limit of normality (FEV1 Z-score [-2; -1]), wheezing was increased, particularly for cases vs. controls (72.7% vs. 18.9%, p = 0.002). Multivariate analysis revealed the most important factor for wheezing was RSV hospitalization. Quality of life on the respiratory subscale of the TAPQOL was significantly lower (p = 0.001) and healthcare resource utilization was significantly higher (p<0.001) in cases than controls. This study confirms RSV disease is associated with wheezing in 32-35 wGA infants through 6 years of age.

Long-Term Epidemiology of Streptococcus pneumoniae Serogroup 6 in a Region of Southern Europe with Special Reference to Serotype 6E

Streptococcus pneumoniae serotype 6E has recently been described, but its long-term epidemiology is not well known. From 1981-2013, 704 serogroup 6 clinical isolates were obtained in Gipuzkoa, Basque Country, Spain. All invasive and one in four non-invasive isolates were included. Overall, 75, 97, 51 and 45 serotypes 6A, 6B, 6C and 6E isolates, respectively, were detected. No serotype 6D isolates were identified. The prevalence of serotypes 6E and 6B, but not that of serotypes 6A and 6C, declined after the introduction of pneumococcal conjugate vaccines. Serotype 6E isolates showed the highest resistance rate. Most serotype 6E isolates were ST90.