Income risk of EU coal-fired power plants after Kyoto

Coal-fired power plants may enjoy a significant advantage relative to gas plants in terms of cheaper fuel cost. Still, this advantage may erode or even turn into disadvantage depending on CO2 emission allowance price. This price will presumably rise in both the Kyoto Protocol commitment period (2008-2012) and the first post-Kyoto years. Thus, in a carbon-constrained environment, coal plants face financial risks arising in their profit margins, which in turn hinge on their so-called "clean dark spread". These risks are further reinforced when the price of the output electricity is determined by natural gas-fired plants' marginal costs, which differ from coal plants' costs. We aim to assess the risks in coal plants' margins. We adopt parameter values estimated from empirical data. These in turn are derived from natural gas and electricity markets alongside the EU ETS market where emission allowances are traded. Monte Carlo simulation allows to compute the expected value and risk profile of coal-based electricity generation. We focus on the clean dark spread in both time periods under different future scenarios in the allowance market. Specifically, bottom 5% and 10% percentiles are derived. According to our results, certain future paths of the allowance price may impose significant risks on the clean dark spread obtained by coal plants.

Towards complex system design and management in the engineering domain – the smart grid challenge

This is an Author's Accepted Manuscript of an article published in “Emergence: Complexity and Organization”, 15 (2), pp. 14-22 (2013), copyright Taylor & Francis.

Effects of Climate Change on the European Nuclear Power Sector

4 p.

Impacts of Climate Change on European Critical Infrastructures: The Case of the Power Sector

23 p.

Time and tide wait for no man: pioneers and laggards in the deployment of CCS

19 p.

Decarbonising urban transportation

18 p.

Estudio de la situación actual en las empresas de producción fotovoltaica

[ES]La energía solar fotovoltaica es un sistema de generación eléctrica cada vez más importante entre los países desarrollados. En este contexto, España siempre ha sido una de los países que más ha invertido a lo largo de su historia. En los últimos años, sin embargo, por culpa del déficit tarifario esta situación ha cambiado, implantando medidas para ahorrar costes que a largo plazo deterioran dicho sector. En el trabajo, se presenta un estudio que muestra la actualidad de este tejido empresarial. Para ello, se ha realizado una encuesta a varias empresas, sobre la situación del sector y las perspectivas de crecimiento y desarrollo dentro de ese entorno. Así, se ha concluido con algunas de las consecuencias que pueden suceder debido al cambio de legislación.

Planta de generación de energía eléctrica de 5MWe mediante lodos de EDAR

[ES]Este proyecto pretende plantear una solución viable y que, por tanto, resulte económicamente rentable, para la gestión de los lodos de depuradora generados en una estación de tratamiento de aguas residuales. Así, este documento se centrará, por una parte, en realizar un acercamiento al mundo de la depuración de aguas residuales y en estudiar los distintos procesos y tratamientos que se llevan a cabo en una depuradora, y por otra, planteará la valorización energética de los lodos mediante su combustión en una planta de generación de energía eléctrica como la solución al problema de gestión que suponen, no sin antes haber valorado las distintas alternativas posibles en cuanto a la salida que se les podría dar a estos fangos. De esta forma, la base del proyecto, una vez se haya optado por la alternativa de la valorización energética como la opción a desarrollar, consistirá en plantear los principios y fundamentos necesarios para el diseño de la planta de generación de energía eléctrica mediante lodos de depuradora que se pretenderá instalar. Se realizará, por tanto, una descripción de la planta generadora de electricidad detallándose el proceso que se llevará a cabo en la misma. Asimismo, se realizará el dimensionamiento de los diferentes equipos que tomarán parte en dicho proceso. Para finalizar, se planteará el estudio económico y de rentabilidad del proyecto que constituirá la creación de una planta de generación eléctrica mediante lodos, con el fin de comprobar el grado de viabilidad del mismo, y se analizarán los posibles riesgos a los que puede exponerse un proyecto de este tipo.

Valuing Expansions of the Electricity Transmission Network under Uncertainty: The Binodal Case

Transmission investments are currently needed to meet an increasing electricity demand, to address security of supply concerns, and to reach carbon-emissions targets. A key issue when assessing the benefits from an expanded grid concerns the valuation of the uncertain cash flows that result from the expansion. We propose a valuation model that accommodates both physical and economic uncertainties following the Real Options approach. It combines optimization techniques with Monte Carlo simulation. We illustrate the use of our model in a simplified, two-node grid and assess the decision whether to invest or not in a particular upgrade. The generation mix includes coal-and natural gas-fired stations that operate under carbon constraints. The underlying parameters are estimated from observed market data.

The Impact of Regulation on Pricing Behavior in the Spanish Electricity Market

In this paper we measure the impact of regulatory measures which affected the Spanish electricity wholesale market in the period 2002-2005. Our approach is based on the fact that regulation changes firms' incentives and therefore their market behavior. In the absence of any regulation firms would choose profit- maximizing prices on their residual demands so that the observed gap between optimal and actual prices provides a measure of the effect of regulation. Our results indicate that regulation has decreased wholesale prices considerably, but became less effective at the end of the sample period which explains the change of regulatory regime introduced in 2006.

Dynamic Inefficiency in an Overlapping Generation Economy with Pollution and Health Costs

Revised 2008-08.-- Published as an article in: Journal of Public Economic Theory (2008), 10(4), 563-594.

A Supply Function Competition Model for the Spanish Wholesale Electricity Market

We model the Spanish wholesale market as a multiplant linear supply function competition model. According to the theory, the larger generators should have supply curves for each plant which are to the left of the supply curves of plants owned by smaller generators. We test this prediction for fuel plants using data from the Spanish Market Operator (OMEL) from May 2001 to December 2003. Our results indicate that the prediction of the model holds.

Market Power in the Spanish Electricity Auction

Published as an article in: Journal of Regulatory Economics, 2010, vol. 37, issue 1, pages 42-69.

Strategic Behavior and Collusion: An Application to the Spanish Electricity Market

The paper has two major contributions to the theory of repeated games. First, we build a supergame oligopoly model where firms compete in supply functions, we show how collusion sustainability is affected by the presence of a convex cost function, the magnitude of both the slope of demand market, and the number of rivals. Then, we compare the results with those of the traditional Cournot reversion under the same structural characteristics. We find how depending on the number of firms and the slope of the linear demand, collusion sustainability is easier under supply function than under Cournot competition. The conclusions of the models are simulated with data from the Spanish wholesale electricity market to predict lower bounds of the discount factors.

Growth in Overlapping Generation Economies with Non-Renewable Resources

Published as an article in: Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 2005, vol. 50, issue 2, pages 387-407.