3 resultados para sources of uncertainty

em Archimer: Archive de l'Institut francais de recherche pour l'exploitation de la mer


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Nickel isotope ratios were measured in ores, fly ash, slags and FeNi samples from two metallurgical plants located in the Goiás State, Brazil (Barro Alto, Niquelândia). This allowed investigating the mass-dependent fractionation of Ni isotopes during the Ni-laterite ore smelting and refining. Feeding material exhibits a large range of δ60Ni values (from 0.02 ± 0.10 ‰ to 0.20 ± 0.05 ‰, n=7), explained by the diversity of Ni-bearing phases, and the average of δ60Nifeeding materials was found equal to 0.08 ± 0.08‰ (2SD, n=7). Both δ60Ni values of fly ash (δ60Ni = 0.07 ± 0.07‰, n=10) and final FeNi produced (0.05 ± 0.02 ‰, n=2) were not significantly different from the feeding materials ones. These values are consistent with the very high production yield of the factories. However, smelting slags present the heaviest δ60Ni values of all the smelter samples, with δ60Ni ranging from 0.11 ± 0.05 ‰ to 0.27 ± 0.05 ‰ (n=8). Soils were also collected near and far from the Niquelândia metallurgical plant, to evaluate the potential of Ni isotopes for tracing the natural vs anthropogenic Ni in soils. The Ni isotopic composition of the non-impacted topsoils developed on ultramafic rocks ranges from -0.26 ± 0.09 ‰ to -0.04 ± 0.05 ‰ (n=20). On the contrary, the Ni isotopic composition of the non-ultramafic topsoils, collected close to the plant, exhibit a large variation of δ60Ni, ranging from -0.19 ± 0.13 ‰ up to 0.10 ± 0.05 ‰ (n=4). This slight but significant enrichment in heavy isotopes highlight the potential impact of smelting activity in the surrounding area, as well as the potential of Ni isotopes for discerning anthropogenic samples (heavier δ60Ni values) from natural ones (lighter δ60Ni values). However, given the global range of published δ60Ni values (from -1.03 to 2.5 ‰) and more particularly those associated to natural weathering of ultramafic rocks (from -0.61 to 0.32‰), the use of Ni isotopes for tracing environmental contamination from smelters will remain challenging.

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Numerous components of the Arctic freshwater system (atmosphere, ocean, cryosphere, terrestrial hydrology) have experienced large changes over the past few decades, and these changes are projected to amplify further in the future. Observations are particularly sparse, both in time and space, in the Polar Regions. Hence, modeling systems have been widely used and are a powerful tool to gain understanding on the functioning of the Arctic freshwater system and its integration within the global Earth system and climate. Here, we present a review of modeling studies addressing some aspect of the Arctic freshwater system. Through illustrative examples, we point out the value of using a hierarchy of models with increasing complexity and component interactions, in order to dismantle the important processes at play for the variability and changes of the different components of the Arctic freshwater system and the interplay between them. We discuss past and projected changes for the Arctic freshwater system and explore the sources of uncertainty associated with these model results. We further elaborate on some missing processes that should be included in future generations of Earth system models and highlight the importance of better quantification and understanding of natural variability, amongst other factors, for improved predictions of Arctic freshwater system change.