Characterizing, modelling and understanding the climate variability of the deep water formation in the North-Western Mediterranean Sea

Observing, modelling and understanding the climate-scale variability of the deep water formation (DWF) in the North-Western Mediterranean Sea remains today very challenging. In this study, we first characterize the interannual variability of this phenomenon by a thorough reanalysis of observations in order to establish reference time series. These quantitative indicators include 31 observed years for the yearly maximum mixed layer depth over the period 1980–2013 and a detailed multi-indicator description of the period 2007–2013. Then a 1980–2013 hindcast simulation is performed with a fully-coupled regional climate system model including the high-resolution representation of the regional atmosphere, ocean, land-surface and rivers. The simulation reproduces quantitatively well the mean behaviour and the large interannual variability of the DWF phenomenon. The model shows convection deeper than 1000 m in 2/3 of the modelled winters, a mean DWF rate equal to 0.35 Sv with maximum values of 1.7 (resp. 1.6) Sv in 2013 (resp. 2005). Using the model results, the winter-integrated buoyancy loss over the Gulf of Lions is identified as the primary driving factor of the DWF interannual variability and explains, alone, around 50 % of its variance. It is itself explained by the occurrence of few stormy days during winter. At daily scale, the Atlantic ridge weather regime is identified as favourable to strong buoyancy losses and therefore DWF, whereas the positive phase of the North Atlantic oscillation is unfavourable. The driving role of the vertical stratification in autumn, a measure of the water column inhibition to mixing, has also been analyzed. Combining both driving factors allows to explain more than 70 % of the interannual variance of the phenomenon and in particular the occurrence of the five strongest convective years of the model (1981, 1999, 2005, 2009, 2013). The model simulates qualitatively well the trends in the deep waters (warming, saltening, increase in the dense water volume, increase in the bottom water density) despite an underestimation of the salinity and density trends. These deep trends come from a heat and salt accumulation during the 1980s and the 1990s in the surface and intermediate layers of the Gulf of Lions before being transferred stepwise towards the deep layers when very convective years occur in 1999 and later. The salinity increase in the near Atlantic Ocean surface layers seems to be the external forcing that finally leads to these deep trends. In the future, our results may allow to better understand the behaviour of the DWF phenomenon in Mediterranean Sea simulations in hindcast, forecast, reanalysis or future climate change scenario modes. The robustness of the obtained results must be however confirmed in multi-model studies.

Structure, transports and transformations of the water masses in the Atlantic Subpolar Gyre

We discuss the distributions and transports of the main water masses in the North Atlantic Subpolar Gyre (NASPG) for the mean of the period 2002–2010 (OVIDE sections 2002–2010 every other year), as well as the inter-annual variability of the water mass structure from 1997 (4x and METEOR sections) to 2010. The water mass structure of the NASPG, quantitatively assessed by means of an Optimum MultiParameter analysis (with 14 water masses), was combined with the velocity fields resulting from previous studies using inverse models to obtain the water mass volume transports. We also evaluate the relative contribution to the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) of the main water masses characterizing the NASPG, identifying the water masses that contribute to the AMOC variability. The reduction of the magnitude of the upper limb of the AMOC between 1997 and the 2000s is associated with the reduction in the northward transport of the Central Waters. This reduction of the northward flow of the AMOC is partially compensated by the reduction of the southward flow of the lower limb of the AMOC, associated with the decrease in the transports of Polar Intermediate Water and Subpolar Mode Water (SPMW) in the Irminger Basin. We also decompose the flow over the Reykjanes Ridge from the East North Atlantic Basin to the Irminger Basin (9.4 ± 4.7 Sv) into the contributions of the Central Waters (2.1 ± 1.8 Sv), Labrador Sea Water (LSW, 2.4 ± 2.0 Sv), Subarctic Intermediate Water (SAIW, 4.0 ± 0.5 Sv) and Iceland–Scotland Overflow Water (ISOW, 0.9 ± 0.9 Sv). Once LSW and ISOW cross over the Reykjanes Ridge, favoured by the strong mixing around it, they leave the Irminger Basin through the deep-to-bottom levels. The results also give insights into the water mass transformations within the NASPG, such as the contribution of the Central Waters and SAIW to the formation of the different varieties of SPMW due to air–sea interaction.