3 resultados para régresseur estimé
em Archimer: Archive de l'Institut francais de recherche pour l'exploitation de la mer
Resumo:
This work presents interactions between quantitative and qualitative river freshwater inputs and the shellfish farming (oyster and mussel) in the Pertuis Charentais. The quantity of freshwater (i.e. salinity) seems to have a weak influence on the shellfish farming contrarily to its quality determined by particulate and dissolved matters contained in the water. In autumn and winter, large precipitations have a "globally positive" effect amending the coastal ecosystem. Associated dissolved nutriments and the organic matter largely determine the quality of the coming spring growth for bred shellfish, itself controlling in turn the annual yield efficiencies. However, in winter their effects are postponed because of strong mineral load, low luminosity and temperature, then limiting the primary production. The spring contributions, directly linked to territorial practices, agriculture and tourism are more variable in quantity and quality from one year to another. They often correspond to high-risk inflows since numerous substances from anthropogenic watersheds can be found diluted in the coastal zone as in the Pertuis Charentais. Their impacts on in situ estuarine ecosystems are still poorly known since these substances are mainly studied and estimated in laboratory in controlled conditions. Several studies showed anthropogenic contaminations (i.e. cadmium, pesticides) could have significant direct or indirect effects on shellfish farming. For instance, the "summer" mortalities between 1990 and 2000 in the South of the Marennes-Oléron bay (MOB), that induced environmental and physiological oyster disorders, could be linked to pesticide effects, measured during consecutive years on the oyster bed of Ronce Perquis in the South of the MOB. The weak results from the spring larval rearing of the IFREMER experimental hatchery in the South of the bay, and chromosomal abnormalities measured on the stocks of wild oysters of the Pertuis could confirm a high-risk spring environment for the shellfish farming. In summer terrestrial inputs are reduced by low precipitations, anthropogenic water removals (drinking water, irrigation) and by plant evapotranspiration. Consequently certain years, a significant salinity increase in water masses of the Pertuis Charentais is observed. However, based on long-term observations, the significant interannual variability noticed in freshwater contributions constitutes one of the most important facts of these last years. When contributions are weak (i.e. 1991 and 2011), the mean annual salinity is 34.5 in the MOB. To the contrary, other years (i.e. 1977, 1981, 1983 and 1988), the mean salinity reduced to 30.5 shows the significant freshwater contributions to the bay. Elsewhere, particularly in the mediterranean region, oyster breeding water conditions characterized by high salinity values show the freshwater does not seem to be necessary for biological functions of the Pacific oyster Crassostrea gigas. Indeed, the oyster embryonic life in particular is well adapted to high salinity values as long as trophic resources are substantial and temperatures remain high. These two factors firstly condition the embryonic survival before the water salinity. Besides, in the Pertuis Charentais, wind conditions and the geographical bloodstock position rather determine the success of the larvae capture than seawater physic-chemical conditions. Finally, a misunderstanding still remains on summer freshwater contributions to the oyster larvae food supply.
Resumo:
The landing ban of Raja undulata has raised misunderstanding for French fishermen, particularly for those fishing in the Norman‐Breton gulf (Southeast of ICES Division VIIe) where this species is very abundant. In this context, the RAIMOUEST project was launched as a professional and scientist partnership in order to enhance fisheries data on the main ray species caught in the Norman-Breton Gulf (Raja undulata, Raja brachyura, Raja clavata, Raja montagui and Raja microocellata). The French ray fisheries fleet was identified and a sample of fishermen involved in rays fishing was interviewed. Landings and effort data (logbooks), auctions sales and sampling at sea aboard professional fishing vessels were analysed. This working document presents the current results of this study. The French fleet concerned by ray fishing in the Normand-Breton Gulf in 2012 was composed of 289 vessels, mainly coastal trawlers/dredgers and small length size netters and longliners. R. undulata is the main ray species in this area. This species seems to form a local stock in the Normand-Breton Gulf with some continuity in the Eastern English Channel and the Western part of the Western English Channel. Three ways of analysis were used to provide an indicative level of R. undulata stock: French landings before 2009 were estimated at least at 300 tons in the Western English Channel (VIIe) and 160 tons in the Normand-Breton Gulf; sales at auctions of the Basse-Normandie fleet before 2009 were estimated at 235 tons in the western English Channel and 35 tons in the eastern English Channel (VIId); discards by the French bottom trawl fleet in ICES Division VIIe in 2012 and 2013 were estimated at 750 tons. Information on the spatial distribution of the other ray species in the English Channel was also provided. The coastal localisation of nursery for R. undulata and R. clavata was highlighted.
Resumo:
L’incertitude associée à une mesure a pour origine d’une part la variabilité environnementale et d’autre part l’ensemble du processus d’acquisition depuis le prélèvement jusqu’à la saisie de la donnée dans une base. L’estimation de l'ensemble de cette variabilité est un exercice complexe à réaliser dans le cadre d’un plan d’expérience. En revanche, les séries temporelles présentent la caractéristique d’intégrer toutes les variabilités et ainsi l’analyse de ces séries en terme de signal et bruit doit permettre de quantifier l’amplitude des incertitudes. Toutefois, les séries temporelles d’observation présentent un ensemble de caractéristiques les rendant difficiles à analyser. Les modèles linaires dynamiques constituent une approche adaptée à ces données particulières en faisant l’hypothèse de paramètres variables dans le temps. Ainsi, l’objet du présent travail consiste à estimer les variances liées au processus d’observation à l’aide de modèles linéaires dynamiques. Plus particulièrement, les mesures considérées sont la chlorophylle a et l’abondance phytoplanctonique aux lieux de surveillance REPHY « Arcachon-Bouée- 7 » et « Teychan bis ». Les résultats montrent que pour la chlorophylle a, la variabilité d’observation est responsable de l’ordre de 80 % de la variabilité totale. Pour l’abondance phytoplanctonique, elle est également de 80 % à « Arcachon-Bouée 7 » mais de l’ordre de 70 % à « Teychan bis ». Ainsi la part de « bruit » est liée au lieu et au paramètre considéré. Exprimée en pourcentage de la médiane de la chlorophylle a, la variance d’observation place les bornes de l’intervalle de confiance à 95 % des observations à des valeurs de l’ordre de -40 % et +120 % de la médiane, l’intervalle étant sous estimé car ne prenant pas en compte la variabilité structurelle. Pour l’abondance phytoplanctonique en log10 cell./L, les ordres de grandeur correspondant en pourcentage de la moyenne sont de ± 13.5 %. Pour les deux paramètres, ces valeurs sont compatibles avec l’expérience des experts. Ainsi, l’approche mise en oeuvre s’est avérée riche d’enseignements en matière d’incertitude de mesure et les nombreuses améliorations méthodologiques envisagées ouvrent des perspectives fécondes à tout point de vue.