Uncertainties in projecting climate-change impacts in marine ecosystems

Projections of the impacts of climate change on marine ecosystems are a key prerequisite for the planning of adaptation strategies, yet they are inevitably associated with uncertainty. Identifying, quantifying, and communicating this uncertainty is key to both evaluating the risk associated with a projection and building confidence in its robustness. We review how uncertainties in such projections are handled in marine science. We employ an approach developed in climate modelling by breaking uncertainty down into (i) structural (model) uncertainty, (ii) initialization and internal variability uncertainty, (iii) parametric uncertainty, and (iv) scenario uncertainty. For each uncertainty type, we then examine the current state-of-the-art in assessing and quantifying its relative importance. We consider whether the marine scientific community has addressed these types of uncertainty sufficiently and highlight the opportunities and challenges associated with doing a better job. We find that even within a relatively small field such as marine science, there are substantial differences between subdisciplines in the degree of attention given to each type of uncertainty. We find that initialization uncertainty is rarely treated explicitly and reducing this type of uncertainty may deliver gains on the seasonal-to-decadal time-scale. We conclude that all parts of marine science could benefit from a greater exchange of ideas, particularly concerning such a universal problem such as the treatment of uncertainty. Finally, marine science should strive to reach the point where scenario uncertainty is the dominant uncertainty in our projections.

Dating of sediments in the Biscay bay: Implication for pollution chronology

Important historical informations on the temporal changes of anthropogenic pollution in marine environment can be assessed using sediment analysis. Dating is a crucial prerequisite to reconstruct pollution events, to calculate fluxes, and thus to allow comparison between different sites. This work presents estimates of accumulation rates of sediments in the Bay of Biscay. Fives cores were collected during RIKEAU 2002 cruise on board o/v Thalia in order to study temporal changes in PAH and organohalogens compounds content of sediment. We compare chronostratigraphic estimates on cores derived from the natural radionuclide 210Pb in excess with estimates from the known times of introduction of the artificial radionuclide 137Cs to the environment. 210Pb, 226Ra and 137Cs were measured directly by non-destructive gamma spectrometry using a well type γ-detector. Total 210Pb and 226Ra activities vary from 30 to 150 mBq g-1, and 20 to 36 mBq g-1 respectively; 137Cs presents lower levels (< 5 mBq g-1). Profiles of 210Pb in three cores present a well mixed layer, from 2-3 to 10 cm, in the uppermost sediments, followed by an exponential decrease of activities, suitable for the determination of sedimentation rates. Under constant flux and sedimentation rate assumptions, vertical accretion rates derived from 210Pb present a large range from nearly 0.1 cm yr-1 up to almost 0.3 cm yr-1. Differences are mainly due to relative position of studied cores regarding the muddy patch. Although the moderate level of 137Cs limits the accuracy of this dating method, profiles of 137Cs with depth strengthen mean rates derived from 210Pb data. The implication of this dating on pollutant inputs in sediments of the Bay of Biscay is briefly discussed.

Diagnosis of vibriosis in the era of genomics: lessons from invertebrates

Global changes linked to increases in temperature and ocean acidification, but also to more direct anthropogenic influences such as aquaculture, have caused a worldwide increase in the reports of Vibrio-associated illnesses affecting humans and also animals such as shrimp and molluscs. Investigation of the emergence of Vibrio pathogenesis events requires the analysis of microbial evolution at the gene, genome and population levels, in order to identify genomic modifications linked to increased virulence, resistance and/or prevalence, or to recent host shift. From a more applied point of view, the elucidation of virulence mechanisms is a prerequisite to devising prophylactic methods to fight infectious agents. In comparison with human pathogens, fairly little is known about the requirements for virulence in vibrios pathogenic to animals. However, the advent of genome sequencing, especially next-generation technologies,the possibility of genetically manipulating most of the Vibrio strains, and the recent availability of standardised animals for experimental infections have now compensated for the considerable delay in advancement of the knowledge of non-model pathogens such as Vibrio and have led to new scientific questions.