2 resultados para model testing

em Archimer: Archive de l'Institut francais de recherche pour l'exploitation de la mer


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Adult anchovies in the Bay of Biscay perform north to south migration from late winter to early summer for spawning. However, what triggers and drives the geographic shift of the population remains unclear and poorly understood. An individual-based fish model has been implemented to explore the potential mechanisms that control anchovy's movement routes toward its spawning habitats. To achieve this goal, two fish movement behaviors – gradient detection through restricted area search and kinesis – simulated fish response to its dynamic environment. A bioenergetics model was used to represent individual growth and reproduction along the fish trajectory. The environmental forcing (food, temperature) of the model was provided by a coupled physical–biogeochemical model. We followed a hypothesis-testing strategy to actualize a series of simulations using different cues and computational assumptions. The gradient detection behavior was found as the most suitable mechanism to recreate the observed shift of anchovy distribution under the combined effect of sea-surface temperature and zooplankton. In addition, our results suggested that southward movement occurred more actively from early April to middle May following favorably the spatio-temporal evolution of zooplankton and temperature. In terms of fish bioenergetics, individuals who ended up in the southern part of the bay presented better condition based on energy content, proposing the resulting energy gain as an ecological explanation for this migration. The kinesis approach resulted in a moderate performance, producing distribution pattern with the highest spread. Finally, model performance was not significantly affected by changes on the starting date, initial fish distribution and number of particles used in the simulations, whereas it was drastically influenced by the adopted cues.

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In the landslide-prone area near the Nice international airport, southeastern France, an interdisciplinary approach is applied to develop realistic lithological/geometrical profiles and geotechnical/strength sub-seafloor models. Such models are indispensable for slope stability assessments using limit equilibrium or finite element methods. Regression analyses, based on the undrained shear strength (su) of intact gassy sediments are used to generate a sub-seafloor strength model based on 37 short dynamic and eight long static piezocone penetration tests, and laboratory experiments on one Calypso piston and 10 gravity cores. Significant strength variations were detected when comparing measurements from the shelf and the shelf break, with a significant drop in su to 5.5 kPa being interpreted as a weak zone at a depth between 6.5 and 8.5 m below seafloor (mbsf). Here, a 10% reduction of the in situ total unit weight compared to the surrounding sediments is found to coincide with coarse-grained layers that turn into a weak zone and detachment plane for former and present-day gravitational, retrogressive slide events, as seen in 2D chirp profiles. The combination of high-resolution chirp profiles and comprehensive geotechnical information allows us to compute enhanced 2D finite element slope stability analysis with undrained sediment response compared to previous 2D numerical and 3D limit equilibrium assessments. Those models suggest that significant portions (detachment planes at 20 m or even 55 mbsf) of the Quaternary delta and slope apron deposits may be mobilized. Given that factors of safety are equal or less than 1 when further considering the effect of free gas, a high risk for a landslide event of considerable size off Nice international airport is identified