Uncertainties in projecting climate-change impacts in marine ecosystems

Projections of the impacts of climate change on marine ecosystems are a key prerequisite for the planning of adaptation strategies, yet they are inevitably associated with uncertainty. Identifying, quantifying, and communicating this uncertainty is key to both evaluating the risk associated with a projection and building confidence in its robustness. We review how uncertainties in such projections are handled in marine science. We employ an approach developed in climate modelling by breaking uncertainty down into (i) structural (model) uncertainty, (ii) initialization and internal variability uncertainty, (iii) parametric uncertainty, and (iv) scenario uncertainty. For each uncertainty type, we then examine the current state-of-the-art in assessing and quantifying its relative importance. We consider whether the marine scientific community has addressed these types of uncertainty sufficiently and highlight the opportunities and challenges associated with doing a better job. We find that even within a relatively small field such as marine science, there are substantial differences between subdisciplines in the degree of attention given to each type of uncertainty. We find that initialization uncertainty is rarely treated explicitly and reducing this type of uncertainty may deliver gains on the seasonal-to-decadal time-scale. We conclude that all parts of marine science could benefit from a greater exchange of ideas, particularly concerning such a universal problem such as the treatment of uncertainty. Finally, marine science should strive to reach the point where scenario uncertainty is the dominant uncertainty in our projections.

Bacterial community characterization of water and intestine of the shrimp Litopenaeus stylirostris in a biofloc system

Background Biofloc technology (BFT), a rearing method with little or no water exchange, is gaining popularity in aquaculture. In the water column, such systems develop conglomerates of microbes, algae and protozoa, together with detritus and dead organic particles. The intensive microbial community presents in these systems can be used as a pond water quality treatment system, and the microbial protein can serve as a feed additive. The current problem with BFT is the difficulty of controlling its bacterial community composition for both optimal water quality and optimal shrimp health. The main objective of the present study was to investigate microbial diversity of samples obtained from different culture environments (Biofloc technology and clear seawater) as well as from the intestines of shrimp reared in both environments through high-throughput sequencing technology. Results Analyses of the bacterial community identified in water from BFT and “clear seawater” (CW) systems (control) containing the shrimp Litopenaeus stylirostris revealed large differences in the frequency distribution of operational taxonomic units (OTUs). Four out of the five most dominant bacterial communities were different in both culture methods. Bacteria found in great abundance in BFT have two principal characteristics: the need for an organic substrate or nitrogen sources to grow and the capacity to attach to surfaces and co-aggregate. A correlation was found between bacteria groups and physicochemical and biological parameters measured in rearing tanks. Moreover, rearing-water bacterial communities influenced the microbiota of shrimp. Indeed, the biofloc environment modified the shrimp intestine microbiota, as the low level (27 %) of similarity between intestinal bacterial communities from the two treatments. Conclusion This study provides the first information describing the complex biofloc microbial community, which can help to understand the environment-microbiota-host relationship in this rearing system.