Characterizing, modelling and understanding the climate variability of the deep water formation in the North-Western Mediterranean Sea

Observing, modelling and understanding the climate-scale variability of the deep water formation (DWF) in the North-Western Mediterranean Sea remains today very challenging. In this study, we first characterize the interannual variability of this phenomenon by a thorough reanalysis of observations in order to establish reference time series. These quantitative indicators include 31 observed years for the yearly maximum mixed layer depth over the period 1980–2013 and a detailed multi-indicator description of the period 2007–2013. Then a 1980–2013 hindcast simulation is performed with a fully-coupled regional climate system model including the high-resolution representation of the regional atmosphere, ocean, land-surface and rivers. The simulation reproduces quantitatively well the mean behaviour and the large interannual variability of the DWF phenomenon. The model shows convection deeper than 1000 m in 2/3 of the modelled winters, a mean DWF rate equal to 0.35 Sv with maximum values of 1.7 (resp. 1.6) Sv in 2013 (resp. 2005). Using the model results, the winter-integrated buoyancy loss over the Gulf of Lions is identified as the primary driving factor of the DWF interannual variability and explains, alone, around 50 % of its variance. It is itself explained by the occurrence of few stormy days during winter. At daily scale, the Atlantic ridge weather regime is identified as favourable to strong buoyancy losses and therefore DWF, whereas the positive phase of the North Atlantic oscillation is unfavourable. The driving role of the vertical stratification in autumn, a measure of the water column inhibition to mixing, has also been analyzed. Combining both driving factors allows to explain more than 70 % of the interannual variance of the phenomenon and in particular the occurrence of the five strongest convective years of the model (1981, 1999, 2005, 2009, 2013). The model simulates qualitatively well the trends in the deep waters (warming, saltening, increase in the dense water volume, increase in the bottom water density) despite an underestimation of the salinity and density trends. These deep trends come from a heat and salt accumulation during the 1980s and the 1990s in the surface and intermediate layers of the Gulf of Lions before being transferred stepwise towards the deep layers when very convective years occur in 1999 and later. The salinity increase in the near Atlantic Ocean surface layers seems to be the external forcing that finally leads to these deep trends. In the future, our results may allow to better understand the behaviour of the DWF phenomenon in Mediterranean Sea simulations in hindcast, forecast, reanalysis or future climate change scenario modes. The robustness of the obtained results must be however confirmed in multi-model studies.

A four-dimensional analysis of the thermal structure in the Gulf of Lion

The Theoretical and Experimental Tomography in the Sea Experiment (THETIS 1) took place in the Gulf of Lion to observe the evolution of the temperature field and the process of deep convection during the 1991-1992 winter. The temperature measurements consist, of moored sensors, conductivity-temperature-depth and expendable bathythermograph surveys, ana acoustic tomography. Because of this diverse data set and since the field evolves rather fast, the analysis uses a unified framework, based on estimation theory and implementing a Kalman filter. The resolution and the errors associated with the model are systematically estimated. Temperature is a good tracer of water masses. The time-evolving three-dimensional view of the field resulting from the analysis shows the details of the three classical convection phases: preconditioning, vigourous convection, and relaxation. In all phases, there is strong spatial nonuniformity, with mesoscale activity, short timescales, and sporadic evidence of advective events (surface capping, intrusions of Levantine Intermediate Water (LIW)). Deep convection, reaching 1500 m, was observed in late February; by late April the field had not yet returned to its initial conditions (strong deficit of LIW). Comparison with available atmospheric flux data shows that advection acts to delay the occurence of convection and confirms the essential role of buoyancy fluxes. For this winter, the deep. mixing results in an injection of anomalously warm water (Delta T similar or equal to 0.03 degrees) to a depth of 1500 m, compatible with the deep warming previously reported.