Integrated indicator framework and methodology for monitoring and assessment of hazardous substances and their effects in the marine environment

Many maritime countries in Europe have implemented marine environmental monitoring programmes which include the measurement of chemical contaminants and related biological effects. How best to integrate data obtained in these two types of monitoring into meaningful assessments has been the subject of recent efforts by the International Council for Exploration of the Sea (ICES) Expert Groups. Work within these groups has concentrated on defining a core set of chemical and biological endpoints that can be used across maritime areas, defining confounding factors, supporting parameters and protocols for measurement. The framework comprised markers for concentrations of, exposure to and effects from, contaminants. Most importantly, assessment criteria for biological effect measurements have been set and the framework suggests how these measurements can be used in an integrated manner alongside contaminant measurements in biota, sediments and potentially water. Output from this process resulted in OSPAR Commission (www.ospar.org) guidelines that were adopted in 2012 on a trial basis for a period of 3 years. The developed assessment framework can furthermore provide a suitable approach for the assessment of Good Environmental Status (GES) for Descriptor 8 of the European Union (EU) Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD).

The transformed-stationary approach: a generic and simplified methodology for non-stationary extreme value analysis

Statistical approaches to study extreme events require, by definition, long time series of data. In many scientific disciplines, these series are often subject to variations at different temporal scales that affect the frequency and intensity of their extremes. Therefore, the assumption of stationarity is violated and alternative methods to conventional stationary extreme value analysis (EVA) must be adopted. Using the example of environmental variables subject to climate change, in this study we introduce the transformed-stationary (TS) methodology for non-stationary EVA. This approach consists of (i) transforming a non-stationary time series into a stationary one, to which the stationary EVA theory can be applied, and (ii) reverse transforming the result into a non-stationary extreme value distribution. As a transformation, we propose and discuss a simple time-varying normalization of the signal and show that it enables a comprehensive formulation of non-stationary generalized extreme value (GEV) and generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) models with a constant shape parameter. A validation of the methodology is carried out on time series of significant wave height, residual water level, and river discharge, which show varying degrees of long-term and seasonal variability. The results from the proposed approach are comparable with the results from (a) a stationary EVA on quasi-stationary slices of non-stationary series and (b) the established method for non-stationary EVA. However, the proposed technique comes with advantages in both cases. For example, in contrast to (a), the proposed technique uses the whole time horizon of the series for the estimation of the extremes, allowing for a more accurate estimation of large return levels. Furthermore, with respect to (b), it decouples the detection of non-stationary patterns from the fitting of the extreme value distribution. As a result, the steps of the analysis are simplified and intermediate diagnostics are possible. In particular, the transformation can be carried out by means of simple statistical techniques such as low-pass filters based on the running mean and the standard deviation, and the fitting procedure is a stationary one with a few degrees of freedom and is easy to implement and control. An open-source MAT-LAB toolbox has been developed to cover this methodology, which is available at https://github.com/menta78/tsEva/(Mentaschi et al., 2016).