Reconstructability of 3-Dimensional Upper Ocean Circulation from SWOT Sea Surface Height Measurements

Utilizing the framework of effective surface quasi-geostrophic (eSQG) theory, we explored the potential of reconstructing the 3D upper ocean circulation structures, including the balanced vertical velocity (w) field, from high-resolution sea surface height (SSH) data of the planned SWOT satellite mission. Specifically, we utilized the 1/30°, submesoscale-resolving, OFES model output and subjected it through the SWOT simulator that generates the along-swath SSH data with expected measurement errors. Focusing on the Kuroshio Extension region in the North Pacific where regional Rossby numbers range from 0.22 to 0.32, we found that the eSQG dynamics constitutes an effective framework for reconstructing the 3D upper ocean circulation field. Using the modeled SSH data as input, the eSQG-reconstructed relative vorticity (ζ) and w fields are found to reach a correlation of 0.7–0.9 and 0.6–0.7, respectively, in the 1,000m upper ocean when compared to the original model output. Degradation due to the SWOT sampling and measurement errors in the input SSH data for the ζ and w reconstructions is found to be moderate, 5–25% for the 3D ζ field and 15-35% for the 3D w field. There exists a tendency for this degradation ratio to decrease in regions where the regional eddy variability (or Rossby number) increases.

Influence of environmental variability and age on the body condition of small pelagic fish in the Gulf of Lions

Endogenous and environmental variables are fundamental in explaining variations in fish condition. Based on more than 20 yr of fish weight and length data, relative condition indices were computed for anchovy and sardine caught in the Gulf of Lions. Classification and regression trees (CART) were used to identify endogenous factors affecting fish condition, and to group years of similar condition. Both species showed a similar annual cycle with condition being minimal in February and maximal in July. CART identified 3 groups of years where the fish populations generally showed poor, average and good condition and within which condition differed between age classes but not according to sex. In particular, during the period of poor condition (mostly recent years), sardines older than 1 yr appeared to be more strongly affected than younger individuals. Time-series were analyzed using generalized linear models (GLMs) to examine the effects of oceanographic abiotic (temperature, Western Mediterranean Oscillation [WeMO] and Rhone outflow) and biotic (chlorophyll a and 6 plankton classes) factors on fish condition. The selected models explained 48 and 35% of the variance of anchovy and sardine condition, respectively. Sardine condition was negatively related to temperature but positively related to the WeMO and mesozooplankton and diatom concentrations. A positive effect of mesozooplankton and Rhone runoff on anchovy condition was detected. The importance of increasing temperatures and reduced water mixing in the NW Mediterranean Sea, affecting planktonic productivity and thus fish condition by bottom-up control processes, was highlighted by these results. Changes in plankton quality, quantity and phenology could lead to insufficient or inadequate food supply for both species.

Oceanic control of multidecadal variability in an idealized coupled GCM

Idealized ocean models are known to develop intrinsic multidecadal oscillations of the meridional overturning circulation (MOC). Here we explore the role of ocean–atmosphere interactions on this low-frequency variability. We use a coupled ocean–atmosphere model set up in a flat-bottom aquaplanet geometry with two meridional boundaries. The model is run at three different horizontal resolutions (4°, 2° and 1°) in both the ocean and atmosphere. At all resolutions, the MOC exhibits spontaneous variability on multidecadal timescales in the range 30–40 years, associated with the propagation of large-scale baroclinic Rossby waves across the Atlantic-like basin. The unstable region of growth of these waves through the long wave limit of baroclinic instability shifts from the eastern boundary at coarse resolution to the western boundary at higher resolution. Increasing the horizontal resolution enhances both intrinsic atmospheric variability and ocean–atmosphere interactions. In particular, the simulated atmospheric annular mode becomes significantly correlated to the MOC variability at 1° resolution. An ocean-only simulation conducted for this specific case underscores the disruptive but not essential influence of air–sea interactions on the low-frequency variability. This study demonstrates that an atmospheric annular mode leading MOC changes by about 2 years (as found at 1° resolution) does not imply that the low-frequency variability originates from air–sea interactions.

Characterizing, modelling and understanding the climate variability of the deep water formation in the North-Western Mediterranean Sea

Observing, modelling and understanding the climate-scale variability of the deep water formation (DWF) in the North-Western Mediterranean Sea remains today very challenging. In this study, we first characterize the interannual variability of this phenomenon by a thorough reanalysis of observations in order to establish reference time series. These quantitative indicators include 31 observed years for the yearly maximum mixed layer depth over the period 1980–2013 and a detailed multi-indicator description of the period 2007–2013. Then a 1980–2013 hindcast simulation is performed with a fully-coupled regional climate system model including the high-resolution representation of the regional atmosphere, ocean, land-surface and rivers. The simulation reproduces quantitatively well the mean behaviour and the large interannual variability of the DWF phenomenon. The model shows convection deeper than 1000 m in 2/3 of the modelled winters, a mean DWF rate equal to 0.35 Sv with maximum values of 1.7 (resp. 1.6) Sv in 2013 (resp. 2005). Using the model results, the winter-integrated buoyancy loss over the Gulf of Lions is identified as the primary driving factor of the DWF interannual variability and explains, alone, around 50 % of its variance. It is itself explained by the occurrence of few stormy days during winter. At daily scale, the Atlantic ridge weather regime is identified as favourable to strong buoyancy losses and therefore DWF, whereas the positive phase of the North Atlantic oscillation is unfavourable. The driving role of the vertical stratification in autumn, a measure of the water column inhibition to mixing, has also been analyzed. Combining both driving factors allows to explain more than 70 % of the interannual variance of the phenomenon and in particular the occurrence of the five strongest convective years of the model (1981, 1999, 2005, 2009, 2013). The model simulates qualitatively well the trends in the deep waters (warming, saltening, increase in the dense water volume, increase in the bottom water density) despite an underestimation of the salinity and density trends. These deep trends come from a heat and salt accumulation during the 1980s and the 1990s in the surface and intermediate layers of the Gulf of Lions before being transferred stepwise towards the deep layers when very convective years occur in 1999 and later. The salinity increase in the near Atlantic Ocean surface layers seems to be the external forcing that finally leads to these deep trends. In the future, our results may allow to better understand the behaviour of the DWF phenomenon in Mediterranean Sea simulations in hindcast, forecast, reanalysis or future climate change scenario modes. The robustness of the obtained results must be however confirmed in multi-model studies.