2 resultados para Variability Modeling
em Archimer: Archive de l'Institut francais de recherche pour l'exploitation de la mer
Resumo:
Current dynamics in the Strait of Bonifacio (south Corsica) were investigated at a small scale during the STELLAMARE1 multidisciplinary cruise in summer 2012, using in situ measurements and modeling data. The Strait of Bonifacio is a particularly sensitive marine area in which specific conservation measures have been taken to preserve the natural environment and wild species. Good knowledge of the hydrodynamics in this area is essential to optimize the Marine Protected Area's management rules. Therefore, we used a high-resolution model (400 m) based on the MARS3D code to investigate the main flux exchanges and to formulate certain hypotheses about the formation of possible eddy structures. The aim of the present paper is first to synthetize the results obtained by combining Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler data, hydrological parameters, Lagrangian drifter data, and satellite observations such as MODIS OC5 chlorophyll a data or Metop-A AVHRR Sea Surface Temperature (SST) data. These elements are then used to validate the presence of the mesoscale eddies simulated by the model and their recurrence outside the cruise period. To complete the analysis, the response of the 3D hydrodynamical model was evaluated under two opposing wind systems and certain biases were detected. Strong velocities up to 1 m s(-1) were recorded in the east part due to the Venturi effect; a complementary system of vortices governed by Coriolis effect and west wind was observed in the west part, and horizontal stratification in the central part has been identified under typical wind condition.
Resumo:
Numerous components of the Arctic freshwater system (atmosphere, ocean, cryosphere, terrestrial hydrology) have experienced large changes over the past few decades, and these changes are projected to amplify further in the future. Observations are particularly sparse, both in time and space, in the Polar Regions. Hence, modeling systems have been widely used and are a powerful tool to gain understanding on the functioning of the Arctic freshwater system and its integration within the global Earth system and climate. Here, we present a review of modeling studies addressing some aspect of the Arctic freshwater system. Through illustrative examples, we point out the value of using a hierarchy of models with increasing complexity and component interactions, in order to dismantle the important processes at play for the variability and changes of the different components of the Arctic freshwater system and the interplay between them. We discuss past and projected changes for the Arctic freshwater system and explore the sources of uncertainty associated with these model results. We further elaborate on some missing processes that should be included in future generations of Earth system models and highlight the importance of better quantification and understanding of natural variability, amongst other factors, for improved predictions of Arctic freshwater system change.