Probabilistic approach of water residence time and connectivity using Markov Chains with application to tidal embayments

Markov Chain analysis was recently proposed to assess the time scales and preferential pathways into biological or physical networks by computing residence time, first passage time, rates of transfer between nodes and number of passages in a node. We propose to adapt an algorithm already published for simple systems to physical systems described with a high resolution hydrodynamic model. The method is applied to bays and estuaries on the Eastern Coast of Canada for their interest in shellfish aquaculture. Current velocities have been computed by using a 2 dimensional grid of elements and circulation patterns were summarized by averaging Eulerian flows between adjacent elements. Flows and volumes allow computing probabilities of transition between elements and to assess the average time needed by virtual particles to move from one element to another, the rate of transfer between two elements, and the average residence time of each system. We also combined transfer rates and times to assess the main pathways of virtual particles released in farmed areas and the potential influence of farmed areas on other areas. We suggest that Markov chain is complementary to other sets of ecological indicators proposed to analyse the interactions between farmed areas - e.g. depletion index, carrying capacity assessment. Markov Chain has several advantages with respect to the estimation of connectivity between pair of sites. It makes possible to estimate transfer rates and times at once in a very quick and efficient way, without the need to perform long term simulations of particle or tracer concentration.

Comparison and validation of physical wave parameterizations in spectral wave models

Recent developments in the physical parameterizations available in spectral wave models have already been validated, but there is little information on their relative performance especially with focus on the higher order spectral moments and wave partitions. This study concentrates on documenting their strengths and limitations using satellite measurements, buoy spectra, and a comparison between the different models. It is confirmed that all models perform well in terms of significant wave heights; however higher-order moments have larger errors. The partition wave quantities perform well in terms of direction and frequency but the magnitude and directional spread typically have larger discrepancies. The high-frequency tail is examined through the mean square slope using satellites and buoys. From this analysis it is clear that some models behave better than the others, suggesting their parameterizations match the physical processes reasonably well. However none of the models are entirely satisfactory, pointing to poorly constrained parameterizations or missing physical processes. The major space-time differences between the models are related to the swell field stressing the importance of describing its evolution. An example swell field confirms the wave heights can be notably different between model configurations while the directional distributions remain similar. It is clear that all models have difficulty in describing the directional spread. Therefore, knowledge of the source term directional distributions is paramount in improving the wave model physics in the future.