Uncertainties in projecting climate-change impacts in marine ecosystems

Projections of the impacts of climate change on marine ecosystems are a key prerequisite for the planning of adaptation strategies, yet they are inevitably associated with uncertainty. Identifying, quantifying, and communicating this uncertainty is key to both evaluating the risk associated with a projection and building confidence in its robustness. We review how uncertainties in such projections are handled in marine science. We employ an approach developed in climate modelling by breaking uncertainty down into (i) structural (model) uncertainty, (ii) initialization and internal variability uncertainty, (iii) parametric uncertainty, and (iv) scenario uncertainty. For each uncertainty type, we then examine the current state-of-the-art in assessing and quantifying its relative importance. We consider whether the marine scientific community has addressed these types of uncertainty sufficiently and highlight the opportunities and challenges associated with doing a better job. We find that even within a relatively small field such as marine science, there are substantial differences between subdisciplines in the degree of attention given to each type of uncertainty. We find that initialization uncertainty is rarely treated explicitly and reducing this type of uncertainty may deliver gains on the seasonal-to-decadal time-scale. We conclude that all parts of marine science could benefit from a greater exchange of ideas, particularly concerning such a universal problem such as the treatment of uncertainty. Finally, marine science should strive to reach the point where scenario uncertainty is the dominant uncertainty in our projections.

Peripheral communities of the Eastern Lau Spreading Center and Valu Fa Ridge: community composition, temporal change and comparison to near-vent communities

Western Pacific hydrothermal vents will soon be subjected to deep-sea mining and peripheral sites are considered the most practical targets. The limited information on community dynamics and temporal change in these communities makes it difficult to anticipate the impact of mining activities and recovery trajectories. We studied community composition of peripheral communities along a cline in hydrothermal chemistry on the Eastern Lau Spreading Center and Valu Fa Ridge (ELSC-VFR) and also studied patterns of temporal change. Peripheral communities located in the northern vent fields of the ELSC-VFR are significantly different from those in the southern vent fields. Higher abundances of zoanthids and anemones were found in northern peripheral sites and the symbiont-containing mussel Bathymodiolus brevior, brisingid seastars and polynoids were only present in the northern peripheral sites. By contrast, certain faunal groups were seen only in the southern peripheral sites, such as lollipop sponges, pycnogonids and ophiuroids. Taxonomic richness of the peripheral communities was similar to that of active vent communities, due to the presence of non-vent endemic species that balanced the absence of species found in areas of active venting. The communities present at waning active sites resemble those of peripheral sites, indicating that peripheral species can colonize previously active vent sites in addition to settling in the periphery of areas of venting. Growth and mortality were observed in a number of the normally slow-growing cladorhizid stick sponges, indicating that these animals may exhibit life history strategies in the vicinity of vents that differ from those previously recorded. A novel facultative association between polynoids and anemones is proposed based on their correlated distributions.