The interplay between tectonics, sediment dynamics and gateways evolution in the Danube system from the Pannonian Basin to the western Black Sea

Understanding the natural evolution of a river–delta–sea system is important to develop a strong scientific basis for efficient integrated management plans. The distribution of sediment fluxes is linked with the natural connection between sediment source areas situated in uplifting mountain chains and deposition in plains, deltas and, ultimately, in the capturing oceans and seas. The Danube River–western Black Sea is one of the most active European systems in terms of sediment re-distribution that poses significant societal challenges. We aim to derive the tectonic and sedimentological background of human-induced changes in this system and discuss their interplay. This is obtained by analysing the tectonic and associated vertical movements, the evolution of relevant basins and the key events affecting sediment routing and deposition. The analysis of the main source and sink areas is focused in particular on the Miocene evolution of the Carpatho-Balkanides, Dinarides and their sedimentary basins including the western Black Sea. The vertical movements of mountains chains created the main moments of basin connectivity observed in the Danube system. Their timing and effects are observed in sediments deposited in the vicinity of gateways, such as the transition between the Pannonian/Transylvanian and Dacian basins and between the Dacian Basin and western Black Sea. The results demonstrate the importance of understanding threshold conditions driving rapid basins connectivity changes superposed over the longer time scale of tectonic-induced vertical movements associated with background erosion and sedimentation. The spatial and temporal scale of such processes is contrastingly different and challenging. The long-term patterns interact with recent or anthropogenic induced modifications in the natural system and may result in rapid changes at threshold conditions that can be quantified and predicted. Their understanding is critical because of frequent occurrence during orogenic evolution, as commonly observed in the Mediterranean area and discussed elsewhere.

A kinetic energy budget and internal instabilities in the Fine Resolution Antarctic Model

An energy analysis of the Fine Resolution Antarctic Model (FRAM) reveals the instability processes in the model. The main source of time-mean kinetic energy is the wind stress and the main sink is transfer to mean potential energy. The wind forcing thus helps maintain the density structure. Transient motions result from internal instabilities of the Bow rather than seasonal variations of the forcing. Baroclinic instability is found to be an important mechanism in FRAM. The highest values of available potential energy are found in the western boundary regions as well as in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) region. All subregions with predominantly zonal flow are found to be baroclinically unstable. The observed deficit of eddy kinetic energy in FRAM occurs as a result of the high lateral friction, which decreases the growth rates of the most unstable waves. This high friction is required for the numerical stability of the model and can only be made smaller by using a finer horizontal resolution. A grid spacing of at least 10-15 km would be required to resolve the most unstable waves in the southern part of the domain. Barotropic instability is also found to be important for the total domain balance. The inverse transfer (that is, transfer from eddy to mean kinetic energy) does not occur anywhere, except in very localized tight jets in the ACC. The open boundary condition at the northern edge of the model domain does not represent a significant source or sink of eddy variability. However, a large exchange between internal and external mode energies is found to occur. It is still unclear how these boundary conditions affect the dynamics of adjacent regions.

Rare sex or out of reach equilibrium? The dynamics of F-IS in partially clonal organisms

Background: Partially clonal organisms are very common in nature, yet the influence of partial asexuality on the temporal dynamics of genetic diversity remains poorly understood. Mathematical models accounting for clonality predict deviations only for extremely rare sex and only towards mean inbreeding coefficient (F-IS) over bar < 0. Yet in partially clonal species, both F-IS < 0 and F-IS > 0 are frequently observed also in populations where there is evidence for a significant amount of sexual reproduction. Here, we studied the joint effects of partial clonality, mutation and genetic drift with a state-and-time discrete Markov chain model to describe the dynamics of F-IS over time under increasing rates of clonality. Results: Results of the mathematical model and simulations show that partial clonality slows down the asymptotic convergence to F-IS = 0. Thus, although clonality alone does not lead to departures from Hardy-Weinberg expectations once reached the final equilibrium state, both negative and positive F-IS values can arise transiently even at intermediate rates of clonality. More importantly, such "transient" departures from Hardy Weinberg proportions may last long as clonality tunes up the temporal variation of F-IS and reduces its rate of change over time, leading to a hyperbolic increase of the maximal time needed to reach the final mean (F-IS,F-infinity) over bar value expected at equilibrium. Conclusion: Our results argue for a dynamical interpretation of F-IS in clonal populations. Negative values cannot be interpreted as unequivocal evidence for extremely scarce sex but also as intermediate rates of clonality in finite populations. Complementary observations (e.g. frequency distribution of multiloci genotypes, population history) or time series data may help to discriminate between different possible conclusions on the extent of clonality when mean (F-IS) over bar values deviating from zero and/or a large variation of F-IS over loci are observed.