Statistical Analysis of Sea Surface Temperature and Chlorophyll-a Concentration Patterns in the Gulf of Tadjourah (Djibouti)

The sea surface temperature (SST) and chlorophyll-a concentration (CHL-a) were analysed in the Gulf of Tadjourah from two set of 8-day composite satellite data, respectively from 2008 to 2012 and from 2005 to 2011. A singular spectrum analysis (SSA) shows that the annual cycle of SST is strong (74.3% of variance) and consists of warming (April-October) and cooling (November-March) of about 2.5C than the long-term average. The semi-annual cycle captures only 14.6% of temperature variance and emphasises the drop of SST during July-August. Similarly, the annual cycle of CHL-a (29.7% of variance) depicts high CHL-a from June to October and low concentration from November to May. In addition, the first spatial empirical orthogonal function (EOF) of SST (93% of variance) shows that the seasonal warming/cooling is in phase across the whole study area but the southeastern part always remaining warmer or cooler. In contrast to the SST, the first EOF of CHL-a (54.1% of variance) indicates the continental shelf in phase opposition with the offshore area in winter during which the CHL-a remains sequestrated in the coastal area particularly in the south-east and in the Ghoubet Al-Kharab Bay. Inversely during summer, higher CHL-a quantities appear in the offshore waters. In order to investigate processes generating these patterns, a multichannel spectrum analysis was applied to a set of oceanic (SST, CHL-a) and atmospheric parameters (wind speed, air temperature and air specific humidity). This analysis shows that the SST is well correlated to the atmospheric parameters at an annual scale. The windowed cross correlation indicates that this correlation is significant only from October to May. During this period, the warming was related to the solar heating of the surface water when the wind is low (April-May and October) while the cooling (November-March) was linked to the strong and cold North-East winds and to convective mixing. The summer drop in SST followed by a peak of CHL-a, seems strongly correlated to the upwelling. The second EOF modes of SST and CHL-a explain respectively 1.3% and 5% of the variance and show an east-west gradient during winter that is reversed during summer. This work showed that the seasonal signals have a wide spatial influence and dominate the variability of the SST and CHL-a while the east-west gradient are specific for the Gulf of Tadjourah and seem induced by the local wind modulated by the topography.

Characterizing, modelling and understanding the climate variability of the deep water formation in the North-Western Mediterranean Sea

Observing, modelling and understanding the climate-scale variability of the deep water formation (DWF) in the North-Western Mediterranean Sea remains today very challenging. In this study, we first characterize the interannual variability of this phenomenon by a thorough reanalysis of observations in order to establish reference time series. These quantitative indicators include 31 observed years for the yearly maximum mixed layer depth over the period 1980–2013 and a detailed multi-indicator description of the period 2007–2013. Then a 1980–2013 hindcast simulation is performed with a fully-coupled regional climate system model including the high-resolution representation of the regional atmosphere, ocean, land-surface and rivers. The simulation reproduces quantitatively well the mean behaviour and the large interannual variability of the DWF phenomenon. The model shows convection deeper than 1000 m in 2/3 of the modelled winters, a mean DWF rate equal to 0.35 Sv with maximum values of 1.7 (resp. 1.6) Sv in 2013 (resp. 2005). Using the model results, the winter-integrated buoyancy loss over the Gulf of Lions is identified as the primary driving factor of the DWF interannual variability and explains, alone, around 50 % of its variance. It is itself explained by the occurrence of few stormy days during winter. At daily scale, the Atlantic ridge weather regime is identified as favourable to strong buoyancy losses and therefore DWF, whereas the positive phase of the North Atlantic oscillation is unfavourable. The driving role of the vertical stratification in autumn, a measure of the water column inhibition to mixing, has also been analyzed. Combining both driving factors allows to explain more than 70 % of the interannual variance of the phenomenon and in particular the occurrence of the five strongest convective years of the model (1981, 1999, 2005, 2009, 2013). The model simulates qualitatively well the trends in the deep waters (warming, saltening, increase in the dense water volume, increase in the bottom water density) despite an underestimation of the salinity and density trends. These deep trends come from a heat and salt accumulation during the 1980s and the 1990s in the surface and intermediate layers of the Gulf of Lions before being transferred stepwise towards the deep layers when very convective years occur in 1999 and later. The salinity increase in the near Atlantic Ocean surface layers seems to be the external forcing that finally leads to these deep trends. In the future, our results may allow to better understand the behaviour of the DWF phenomenon in Mediterranean Sea simulations in hindcast, forecast, reanalysis or future climate change scenario modes. The robustness of the obtained results must be however confirmed in multi-model studies.

Nutrients limiting the Algal Growth Potential (AGP) in the Gulf of Riga, eastern Baltic Sea, in spring and early summer 1996

In May, June and July 1996, samples wcre collected along one transect greatly influenced by river discharge (eastern side of the gulf), along one transect slightly influence by river discharge (western side), at one station Iocated in the mouth of the main river (River Daugava), at one station located in the center of the Gulf and at several nearshore locations of the western side. Ratios of rnolecular concentrations of in situ dissolved ioorganic nitrogen, phosphorus and silicon, as weIl as enrichment bioassays were llsed to dctcrrnine which nutrient (s) lirnited the potential biomass of phytoplankton. Both comparison of (NO.d-N02+NJ.L): P04 (DIN: DIP) values with Redfic1d's ratio and bioassay inspection led to the sarne conclusions. Phosphorus was clearly the nutrient most limiting for the potcntial biornass of test species in nitrogen- rich waters, which occurred in mid spring, in the upper layer of the southern-eastern part of the Gulf which is greatly influenced by river discharge. In late spring, with the decrease of the total DIN reserve, nitrogen and phosphorus showed an equallimiting role. In deeper layers of this area and out of the river plume (western side and central part of the gulf), nitrogen was the limiting nutrient. In summer, whcn river discharge was the lowest, a11 DIN concentrations but one ranged between 1.6 and 2.6 µM, and the whole area was nitrogen-limited for both the cyanobacterial and the algal test strains. In 74% of the samples for which nitrogen was the limiting nutrient, phosphorus was recorded to be the second potentially limiting nutrient. In contrast, silicon never appeared as limiting the growth potential of either Microcystis aeruginosa or Phaeodactylum tricornutum; phosphorus was the limiting nutrient when DIN: Si03 values were >1 (in May), but DIN: Si03 was <1 when nitrogen was limiting (June and July). The authors conclude that the recently reported decrease of silicon loading in coastal waters and its subsequent enhanced importance in pushing the outcome of species competition towards harmful species may not yet be the most important factor for the Gulf of Riga. Iron appeared for 12% of the tests in the list of nutrients limiting the potential biomass. Tentative results also indicated that a significant fraction of the nitrogen (~,4 µg-atom N 1(-1) taken up by Microcystis aeruginosa may have been in the form of dissolved organic nitrogen (DON). It is thus also suggested tentatively that more attention be paid to these nitrients during further research in the Gulf of Riga.