Uncertainties in projecting climate-change impacts in marine ecosystems

Projections of the impacts of climate change on marine ecosystems are a key prerequisite for the planning of adaptation strategies, yet they are inevitably associated with uncertainty. Identifying, quantifying, and communicating this uncertainty is key to both evaluating the risk associated with a projection and building confidence in its robustness. We review how uncertainties in such projections are handled in marine science. We employ an approach developed in climate modelling by breaking uncertainty down into (i) structural (model) uncertainty, (ii) initialization and internal variability uncertainty, (iii) parametric uncertainty, and (iv) scenario uncertainty. For each uncertainty type, we then examine the current state-of-the-art in assessing and quantifying its relative importance. We consider whether the marine scientific community has addressed these types of uncertainty sufficiently and highlight the opportunities and challenges associated with doing a better job. We find that even within a relatively small field such as marine science, there are substantial differences between subdisciplines in the degree of attention given to each type of uncertainty. We find that initialization uncertainty is rarely treated explicitly and reducing this type of uncertainty may deliver gains on the seasonal-to-decadal time-scale. We conclude that all parts of marine science could benefit from a greater exchange of ideas, particularly concerning such a universal problem such as the treatment of uncertainty. Finally, marine science should strive to reach the point where scenario uncertainty is the dominant uncertainty in our projections.

FluxEngine: A flexible processing system for calculating atmosphere-ocean carbon dioxide gas fluxes and climatologies

The air-sea flux of greenhouse gases (e.g. carbon dioxide, CO2) is a critical part of the climate system and a major factor in the biogeochemical development of the oceans. More accurate and higher resolution calculations of these gas fluxes are required if we are to fully understand and predict our future climate. Satellite Earth observation is able to provide large spatial scale datasets that can be used to study gas fluxes. However, the large storage requirements needed to host such data can restrict its use by the scientific community. Fortunately, the development of cloud-computing can provide a solution. Here we describe an open source air-sea CO2 flux processing toolbox called the ‘FluxEngine’, designed for use on a cloud-computing infrastructure. The toolbox allows users to easily generate global and regional air-sea CO2 flux data from model, in situ and Earth observation data, and its air-sea gas flux calculation is user configurable. Its current installation on the Nephalae cloud allows users to easily exploit more than 8 terabytes of climate-quality Earth observation data for the derivation of gas fluxes. The resultant NetCDF data output files contain >20 data layers containing the various stages of the flux calculation along with process indicator layers to aid interpretation of the data. This paper describes the toolbox design, the verification of the air-sea CO2 flux calculations, demonstrates the use of the tools for studying global and shelf-sea air-sea fluxes and describes future developments.