Characterizing, modelling and understanding the climate variability of the deep water formation in the North-Western Mediterranean Sea

Observing, modelling and understanding the climate-scale variability of the deep water formation (DWF) in the North-Western Mediterranean Sea remains today very challenging. In this study, we first characterize the interannual variability of this phenomenon by a thorough reanalysis of observations in order to establish reference time series. These quantitative indicators include 31 observed years for the yearly maximum mixed layer depth over the period 1980–2013 and a detailed multi-indicator description of the period 2007–2013. Then a 1980–2013 hindcast simulation is performed with a fully-coupled regional climate system model including the high-resolution representation of the regional atmosphere, ocean, land-surface and rivers. The simulation reproduces quantitatively well the mean behaviour and the large interannual variability of the DWF phenomenon. The model shows convection deeper than 1000 m in 2/3 of the modelled winters, a mean DWF rate equal to 0.35 Sv with maximum values of 1.7 (resp. 1.6) Sv in 2013 (resp. 2005). Using the model results, the winter-integrated buoyancy loss over the Gulf of Lions is identified as the primary driving factor of the DWF interannual variability and explains, alone, around 50 % of its variance. It is itself explained by the occurrence of few stormy days during winter. At daily scale, the Atlantic ridge weather regime is identified as favourable to strong buoyancy losses and therefore DWF, whereas the positive phase of the North Atlantic oscillation is unfavourable. The driving role of the vertical stratification in autumn, a measure of the water column inhibition to mixing, has also been analyzed. Combining both driving factors allows to explain more than 70 % of the interannual variance of the phenomenon and in particular the occurrence of the five strongest convective years of the model (1981, 1999, 2005, 2009, 2013). The model simulates qualitatively well the trends in the deep waters (warming, saltening, increase in the dense water volume, increase in the bottom water density) despite an underestimation of the salinity and density trends. These deep trends come from a heat and salt accumulation during the 1980s and the 1990s in the surface and intermediate layers of the Gulf of Lions before being transferred stepwise towards the deep layers when very convective years occur in 1999 and later. The salinity increase in the near Atlantic Ocean surface layers seems to be the external forcing that finally leads to these deep trends. In the future, our results may allow to better understand the behaviour of the DWF phenomenon in Mediterranean Sea simulations in hindcast, forecast, reanalysis or future climate change scenario modes. The robustness of the obtained results must be however confirmed in multi-model studies.

Report of the Workshop on Growth-increment Chronologies in Marine Fish: climate-ecosystem interactions in the North Atlantic 2 (WKGIC2). 18-22 April 2016 Esporles, Mallorca, Spain

Over the past several decades, thousands of otoliths, bivalve shells, and scales have been collected for the purposes of age determination and remain archived in European and North American fisheries laboratories. Advances in digital imaging and computer software combined with techniques developed by tree-ring scientists provide a means by which to extract additional levels of information in these calcified structures and generate annually resolved (one value per year), multidecadal time-series of population-level growth anomalies. Chemical and isotopic properties may also be extracted to provide additional information regarding the environmental conditions these organisms experienced.Given that they are exactly placed in time, chronologies can be directly compared to instrumental climate records, chronologies from other regions or species, or time-seriesof other biological phenomena. In this way, chronologies may be used to reconstruct historical ranges of environmental variability, identify climatic drivers of growth, establish linkages within and among species, and generate ecosystem-level indicators. Following the first workshop in Hamburg, Germany, in December 2014, the second workshop on Growth increment Chronologies in Marine Fish: climate-ecosystem interactions in the North Atlantic (WKGIC2) met at the Mediterranean Institute for Advanced Studies headquarters in Esporles, Spain, on 18–22 April 2016, chaired by Bryan Black (USA) and Christoph Stransky (Germany).Thirty-six participants from fifteen different countries attended. Objectives were to i) review the applications of chronologies developed from growth-increment widths in the hard parts (otoliths, shells, scales) of marine fish and bivalve species ii) review the fundamentals of crossdating and chronology development, iii) discuss assumptions and limitations of these approaches, iv) measure otolith growth-increment widths in image analysis software, v) learn software to statistically check increment dating accuracy, vi) generate a growth increment chronology and relate it to climate indices, and vii) initiate cooperative projects or training exercises to commence after the workshop.The workshop began with an overview of tree-ring techniques of chronology development, including a hands-on exercise in cross dating. Next, we discussed the applications of fish and bivalve biochronologies and the range of issues that could be addressed. We then reviewed key assumptions and limitations, especially those associated with short-lived species for which there are numerous and extensive otolith archives in European fisheries labs. Next, participants were provided with images of European plaice otoliths from the North Sea and taught to measure increment widths in image analysis software. Upon completion of measurements, techniques of chronology development were discussed and contrasted to those that have been applied for long-lived species. Plaice growth time-series were then related to environmental variability using the KNMI Climate Explorer. Finally, potential future collaborations and funding opportunities were discussed, and there was a clear desire to meet again to compare various statistical techniques for chronology development using a range existing fish, bivalve, and tree growth-increment datasets. Overall, we hope to increase the use of these techniques, and over the long term, develop networks of biochronologies for integrative analyses of ecosystem functioning and relationships to long-term climate variability and fishing pressure.

The scientific rationale, design and implementation plan for a Biogeochemical-Argo float array

Biogeochemical-Argo is the extension of the Argo array of profiling floats to include floats that are equipped with biogeochemical sensors for pH, oxygen, nitrate, chlorophyll, suspended particles, and downwelling irradiance. Argo is a highly regarded, international program that measures the changing ocean temperature (heat content) and salinity with profiling floats distributed throughout the ocean. Newly developed sensors now allow profiling floats to also observe biogeochemical properties with sufficient accuracy for climate studies. This extension of Argo will enable an observing system that can determine the seasonal to decadal-scale variability in biological productivity, the supply of essential plant nutrients from deep-waters to the sunlit surface layer, ocean acidification, hypoxia, and ocean uptake of CO2. Biogeochemical-Argo will drive a transformative shift in our ability to observe and predict the effects of climate change on ocean metabolism, carbon uptake, and living marine resource management. Presently, vast areas of the open ocean are sampled only once per decade or less, with sampling occurring mainly in summer. Our ability to detect changes in biogeochemical processes that may occur due to the warming and acidification driven by increasing atmospheric CO2, as well as by natural climate variability, is greatly hindered by this undersampling. In close synergy with satellite systems (which are effective at detecting global patterns for a few biogeochemical parameters, but only very close to the sea surface and in the absence of clouds), a global array of biogeochemical sensors would revolutionize our understanding of ocean carbon uptake, productivity, and deoxygenation. The array would reveal the biological, chemical, and physical events that control these processes. Such a system would enable a new generation of global ocean prediction systems in support of carbon cycling, acidification, hypoxia and harmful algal blooms studies, as well as the management of living marine resources. In order to prepare for a global Biogeochemical-Argo array, several prototype profiling float arrays have been developed at the regional scale by various countries and are now operating. Examples include regional arrays in the Southern Ocean (SOCCOM ), the North Atlantic Sub-polar Gyre (remOcean ), the Mediterranean Sea (NAOS ), the Kuroshio region of the North Pacific (INBOX ), and the Indian Ocean (IOBioArgo ). For example, the SOCCOM program is deploying 200 profiling floats with biogeochemical sensors throughout the Southern Ocean, including areas covered seasonally with ice. The resulting data, which are publically available in real time, are being linked with computer models to better understand the role of the Southern Ocean in influencing CO2 uptake, biological productivity, and nutrient supply to distant regions of the world ocean. The success of these regional projects has motivated a planning meeting to discuss the requirements for and applications of a global-scale Biogeochemical-Argo program. The meeting was held 11-13 January 2016 in Villefranche-sur-Mer, France with attendees from eight nations now deploying Argo floats with biogeochemical sensors present to discuss this topic. In preparation, computer simulations and a variety of analyses were conducted to assess the resources required for the transition to a global-scale array. Based on these analyses and simulations, it was concluded that an array of about 1000 biogeochemical profiling floats would provide the needed resolution to greatly improve our understanding of biogeochemical processes and to enable significant improvement in ecosystem models. With an endurance of four years for a Biogeochemical-Argo float, this system would require the procurement and deployment of 250 new floats per year to maintain a 1000 float array. The lifetime cost for a Biogeochemical-Argo float, including capital expense, calibration, data management, and data transmission, is about $100,000. A global Biogeochemical-Argo system would thus cost about $25,000,000 annually. In the present Argo paradigm, the US provides half of the profiling floats in the array, while the EU, Austral/Asia, and Canada share most the remaining half. If this approach is adopted, the US cost for the Biogeochemical-Argo system would be ~$12,500,000 annually and ~$6,250,000 each for the EU, and Austral/Asia and Canada. This includes no direct costs for ship time and presumes that float deployments can be carried out from future research cruises of opportunity, including, for example, the international GO-SHIP program (http://www.go-ship.org). The full-scale implementation of a global Biogeochemical-Argo system with 1000 floats is feasible within a decade. The successful, ongoing pilot projects have provided the foundation and start for such a system.