Informing Marine Spatial Planning (MSP) with numerical modelling: A case-study on shellfish aquaculture in Malpeque Bay (Eastern Canada)

A moratorium on further bivalve leasing was established in 1999–2000 in Prince Edward Island (Canada). Recently, a marine spatial planning process was initiated explore potential mussel culture expansion in Malpeque Bay. This study focuses on the effects of a projected expansion scenario on productivity of existing leases and available suspended food resources. The aim is to provide a robust scientific assessment using available datasets and three modelling approaches ranging in complexity: (1) a connectivity analysis among culture areas; (2) a scenario analysis of organic seston dynamics based on a simplified biogeochemical model; and (3) a scenario analysis of phytoplankton dynamics based on an ecosystem model. These complementary approaches suggest (1) new leases can affect existing culture both through direct connectivity and through bay-scale effects driven by the overall increase in mussel biomass, and (2) a net reduction of phytoplankton within the bounds of its natural variation in the area.

Extrapolating Satellite Winds to Turbine Operating Heights

Ocean wind retrievals from satellite sensors are typically performed for the standard level of 10 m. This restricts their full exploitation for wind energy planning, which requires wind information at much higher levels where wind turbines operate. A new method is presented for the vertical extrapolation of satellite-based wind maps. Winds near the sea surface are obtained from satellite data and used together with an adaptation of the Monin–Obukhov similarity theory to estimate the wind speed at higher levels. The thermal stratification of the atmosphere is taken into account through a long-term stability correction that is based on numerical weather prediction (NWP) model outputs. The effect of the long-term stability correction on the wind profile is significant. The method is applied to Envisat Advanced Synthetic Aperture Radar scenes acquired over the south Baltic Sea. This leads to maps of the long-term stability correction and wind speed at a height of 100 m with a spatial resolution of 0.02°. Calculations of the corresponding wind power density and Weibull parameters are shown. Comparisons with mast observations reveal that NWP model outputs can correct successfully for long-term stability effects and also, to some extent, for the limited number of satellite samples. The satellite-based and NWP-simulated wind profiles are almost equally accurate with respect to those from the mast. However, the satellite-based maps have a higher spatial resolution, which is particularly important in nearshore areas where most offshore wind farms are built.