Modeling the Arctic Freshwater System and its integration in the global system: Lessons learned and future challenges

Numerous components of the Arctic freshwater system (atmosphere, ocean, cryosphere, terrestrial hydrology) have experienced large changes over the past few decades, and these changes are projected to amplify further in the future. Observations are particularly sparse, both in time and space, in the Polar Regions. Hence, modeling systems have been widely used and are a powerful tool to gain understanding on the functioning of the Arctic freshwater system and its integration within the global Earth system and climate. Here, we present a review of modeling studies addressing some aspect of the Arctic freshwater system. Through illustrative examples, we point out the value of using a hierarchy of models with increasing complexity and component interactions, in order to dismantle the important processes at play for the variability and changes of the different components of the Arctic freshwater system and the interplay between them. We discuss past and projected changes for the Arctic freshwater system and explore the sources of uncertainty associated with these model results. We further elaborate on some missing processes that should be included in future generations of Earth system models and highlight the importance of better quantification and understanding of natural variability, amongst other factors, for improved predictions of Arctic freshwater system change.

Unexpected Levels of Biological Activity during the Polar Night Offer New Perspectives on a Warming Arctic

The current understanding of Arctic ecosystems is deeply rooted in the classical view of a bottom-up controlled system with strong physical forcing and seasonality in primary-production regimes. Consequently, the Arctic polar night is commonly disregarded as a time of year when biological activities are reduced to a minimum due to a reduced food supply. Here, based upon a multidisciplinary ecosystem-scale study from the polar night at 79 degrees N, we present an entirely different view. Instead of an ecosystem that has entered a resting state, we document a system with high activity levels and biological interactions across most trophic levels. In some habitats, biological diversity and presence of juvenile stages were elevated in winter months compared to the more productive and sunlit periods. Ultimately, our results suggest a different perspective regarding ecosystem function that will be of importance for future environmental management and decision making, especially at a time when Arctic regions are experiencing accelerated environmental change [1].