Of sets of offsets: Cumulative impacts and strategies for compensatory restoration

Biodiversity offsets are increasingly advocated as a flexible approach to managing the ecological costs of economic development. Arguably, however, this remains an area where policy-making has run ahead of science. A growing number of studies identify limitations of offsets in achieving ecologically sustainable outcomes, pointing to ethical and implementation issues that may undermine their effectiveness. We develop a novel system dynamic modelling framework to analyze the no net loss objective of development and biodiversity offsets. The modelling framework considers a marine-based example, where resource abundance depends on a habitat that is affected by a sequence of development projects, and biodiversity offsets are understood as habitat restoration actions. The model is used to explore the implications of four alternative offset management strategies for a regulator, which differ in how net loss is measured, and whether and how the cumulative impacts of development are considered. Our results confirm that, when it comes to offsets as a conservation tool, the devil lies in the details. Approaches to determining the magnitude of offsets required, as well as their timing and allocation among multiple developers, can result in potentially complex and undesired sets of economic incentives, with direct impacts on the ability to meet the overall objective of ecologically sustainable development. The approach and insights are of direct interest to conservation policy design in a broad range of marine and coastal contexts.

The interaction between two oppositely travelling, horizontally offset, antisymmetric quasi-geostrophic hetons

We investigate numerically the nonlinear interactions between hetons. Hetons are baroclinic structures consisting of two vortices of opposite sign lying at different depths. Hetons are long-lived. They most often translate (they can sometimes rotate) and therefore they can noticeably contribute to the transport of scalar properties in the oceans. Heton interactions can interrupt this translation and thus this transport, by inducing a reconfiguration of interacting hetons into more complex baroclinic multipoles. More specifically, we study here the general case of two hetons, which collide with an offset between their translation axes. For this purpose, we use the point vortex theory, the ellipsoidal vortex model and direct simulations in the three-dimensional quasi-geostrophic contour surgery model. More specifically, this paper shows that there are in general three regimes for the interaction. For small horizontal offsets between the hetons, their vortices recombine as same-depth dipoles which escape at an angle. The angle depends in particular on the horizontal offset. It is a right angle for no offset, and the angle is shallower for small but finite offsets. The second limiting regime is for large horizontal offsets where the two hetons remain the same hetonic structures but are deflected by the weaker mutual interaction. Finally, the intermediate regime is for moderate offsets. This is the regime where the formation of a metastable quadrupole is possible. The formation of this quadrupole greatly restrains transport. Indeed, it constrains the vortices to reside in a closed area. It is shown that the formation of such structures is enhanced by the quasi-periodic deformation of the vortices. Indeed, these structures are nearly unobtainable for singular vortices (point vortices) but may be obtained using deformable, finite-core vortices.