Informing Marine Spatial Planning (MSP) with numerical modelling: A case-study on shellfish aquaculture in Malpeque Bay (Eastern Canada)

A moratorium on further bivalve leasing was established in 1999–2000 in Prince Edward Island (Canada). Recently, a marine spatial planning process was initiated explore potential mussel culture expansion in Malpeque Bay. This study focuses on the effects of a projected expansion scenario on productivity of existing leases and available suspended food resources. The aim is to provide a robust scientific assessment using available datasets and three modelling approaches ranging in complexity: (1) a connectivity analysis among culture areas; (2) a scenario analysis of organic seston dynamics based on a simplified biogeochemical model; and (3) a scenario analysis of phytoplankton dynamics based on an ecosystem model. These complementary approaches suggest (1) new leases can affect existing culture both through direct connectivity and through bay-scale effects driven by the overall increase in mussel biomass, and (2) a net reduction of phytoplankton within the bounds of its natural variation in the area.

Performance assessment of a vertical axis turbine in a marine current flume tank and CFD modelling

As advances in numerical modelling techniques support the increased confidence in predictions from computer simulations, the need remains to have experimental verification built into the design process. This paper outlines the experimental investigation carried out on a shielded vertical axis turbine in a marine environment. The experiments consist of performance measurements and the use of particle image velocimetry on a small scale device in a marine current flume. The results demonstrate that the performance of the device can be modelled numerically; in particular, the results show that the numerical model used can correctly predict the increase in performance with Reynolds number.

Climate Change Influences Carrying Capacity in a Coastal Embayment Dedicated to Shellfish Aquaculture

A spatially explicit coupled hydrodynamic-biogeochemical model was developed to study a coastal ecosystem under the combined effects of mussel aquaculture, nutrient loading and climate change. The model was applied to St Peter's Bay (SPB), Prince Edward Island, Eastern Canada. Approximately 40 % of the SPB area is dedicated to mussel (Mytilus edulis) longline culture. Results indicate that the two main food sources for mussels, phytoplankton and organic detritus, are most depleted in the central part of the embayment. Results also suggest that the system is near its ultimate capacity, a state where the energy cycle is restricted to nitrogen-phytoplankton-detritus-mussels with few resources left to be transferred to higher trophic levels. Annually, mussel meat harvesting extracts nitrogen (N) resources equivalent to 42 % of river inputs or 46.5 % of the net phytoplankton primary production. Under such extractive pressure, the phytoplankton biomass is being curtailed to 1980's levels when aquaculture was not yet developed and N loading was half the present level. Current mussel stocks also decrease bay-scale sedimentation rates by 14 %. Finally, a climate change scenario (year 2050) predicted a 30 % increase in mussel production, largely driven by more efficient utilization of the phytoplankton spring bloom. However, the predicted elevated summer temperatures (> 25 A degrees C) may also have deleterious physiological effects on mussels and possibly increase summer mortality levels. In conclusion, cultivated bivalves may play an important role in remediating the negative impacts of land-derived nutrient loading. Climate change may lead to increases in production and ecological carrying capacity as long as the cultivated species can tolerate warmer summer conditions.

Phytoplankton versus macrophyte contribution to primary production and biogeochemical cycles of a coastal mesotidal system. A modelling approach

This study presents an assessment of the contributions of various primary producers to the global annual production and N/P cycles of a coastal system, namely the Arcachon Bay, by means of a numerical model. This 3D model fully couples hydrodynamic with ecological processes and simulates nitrogen, silicon and phosphorus cycles as well as phytoplankton, macroalgae and seagrasses. Total annual production rates for the different components were calculated for different years (2005, 2007 and 2009) during a time period of drastic reduction in seagrass beds since 2005. The total demand of nitrogen and phosphorus was also calculated and discussed with regards to the riverine inputs. Moreover, this study presents the first estimation of particulate organic carbon export to the adjacent open ocean. The calculated annual net production for the Arcachon Bay (except microphytobenthos, not included in the model) ranges between 22,850 and 35,300 tons of carbon. The main producers are seagrasses in all the years considered with a contribution ranging from 56% to 81% of global production. According to our model, the -30% reduction in seagrass bed surface between 2005 and 2007, led to an approximate 55% reduction in seagrass production, while during the same period of time, macroalgae and phytoplankton enhanced their productions by about +83% and +46% respectively. Nonetheless, the phytoplankton production remains about eightfold higher than the macroalgae production. Our results also highlight the importance of remineralisation inside the Bay, since riverine inputs only fulfill at maximum 73% nitrogen and 13% phosphorus demands during the years 2005, 2007 and 2009. Calculated advection allowed a rough estimate of the organic matter export: about 10% of the total production in the bay was exported, originating mainly from the seagrass compartment, since most of the labile organic matter was remineralised inside the bay.

Post-rift evolution of the Gulf of Lion margin tested by stratigraphic modelling

The sedimentary architecture of basins and passive margins is determined by a complex interaction of parameters, including subsidence, eustasy, and sediment supply. A quantification of the post-rift (20 Ma-0 Ma) vertical movements of the Gulf of Lion (West Mediterranean) is proposed here based on the stratigraphic study of sedimentary paleomarkers using a large 3D grid of reflection seismic data, correlations with existing drillings, and refraction data. Post-rift subsidence was measured by the direct use of sedimentary geometries analysed in 3D and validated by numerical stratigraphic modelling. Three domains of subsidence were found: on the continental shelf and slope, subsidence corresponds to a seaward tilting with different amplitudes, whereas the deep basin subsides purely vertically. We show that these domains fit with the deeper crustal domains highlighted by previous geophysical data, and that post-break-up subsidence follows the initial hinge lines of the rifting phase. Subsidence rates are quantified on each domain for each stratigraphic interval. At a constant distance from the rotational hinge line, the Plio-Quaternary subsidence rate is constant on the shelf overall. Conversely, Miocene subsidence rates are very different on the eastern and western shelves. Stratigraphic simulations focused on the Messinian salinity crisis (MSC) were also performed. Their results are discussed together with our post-rift subsidence estimates in order to provide ideas and hypotheses for future detailed quantifications of Miocene subsidence, including isostatic readjustments linked to the MSC.