Characterizing, modelling and understanding the climate variability of the deep water formation in the North-Western Mediterranean Sea

Observing, modelling and understanding the climate-scale variability of the deep water formation (DWF) in the North-Western Mediterranean Sea remains today very challenging. In this study, we first characterize the interannual variability of this phenomenon by a thorough reanalysis of observations in order to establish reference time series. These quantitative indicators include 31 observed years for the yearly maximum mixed layer depth over the period 1980–2013 and a detailed multi-indicator description of the period 2007–2013. Then a 1980–2013 hindcast simulation is performed with a fully-coupled regional climate system model including the high-resolution representation of the regional atmosphere, ocean, land-surface and rivers. The simulation reproduces quantitatively well the mean behaviour and the large interannual variability of the DWF phenomenon. The model shows convection deeper than 1000 m in 2/3 of the modelled winters, a mean DWF rate equal to 0.35 Sv with maximum values of 1.7 (resp. 1.6) Sv in 2013 (resp. 2005). Using the model results, the winter-integrated buoyancy loss over the Gulf of Lions is identified as the primary driving factor of the DWF interannual variability and explains, alone, around 50 % of its variance. It is itself explained by the occurrence of few stormy days during winter. At daily scale, the Atlantic ridge weather regime is identified as favourable to strong buoyancy losses and therefore DWF, whereas the positive phase of the North Atlantic oscillation is unfavourable. The driving role of the vertical stratification in autumn, a measure of the water column inhibition to mixing, has also been analyzed. Combining both driving factors allows to explain more than 70 % of the interannual variance of the phenomenon and in particular the occurrence of the five strongest convective years of the model (1981, 1999, 2005, 2009, 2013). The model simulates qualitatively well the trends in the deep waters (warming, saltening, increase in the dense water volume, increase in the bottom water density) despite an underestimation of the salinity and density trends. These deep trends come from a heat and salt accumulation during the 1980s and the 1990s in the surface and intermediate layers of the Gulf of Lions before being transferred stepwise towards the deep layers when very convective years occur in 1999 and later. The salinity increase in the near Atlantic Ocean surface layers seems to be the external forcing that finally leads to these deep trends. In the future, our results may allow to better understand the behaviour of the DWF phenomenon in Mediterranean Sea simulations in hindcast, forecast, reanalysis or future climate change scenario modes. The robustness of the obtained results must be however confirmed in multi-model studies.

Post-rift evolution of the Gulf of Lion margin tested by stratigraphic modelling

The sedimentary architecture of basins and passive margins is determined by a complex interaction of parameters, including subsidence, eustasy, and sediment supply. A quantification of the post-rift (20 Ma-0 Ma) vertical movements of the Gulf of Lion (West Mediterranean) is proposed here based on the stratigraphic study of sedimentary paleomarkers using a large 3D grid of reflection seismic data, correlations with existing drillings, and refraction data. Post-rift subsidence was measured by the direct use of sedimentary geometries analysed in 3D and validated by numerical stratigraphic modelling. Three domains of subsidence were found: on the continental shelf and slope, subsidence corresponds to a seaward tilting with different amplitudes, whereas the deep basin subsides purely vertically. We show that these domains fit with the deeper crustal domains highlighted by previous geophysical data, and that post-break-up subsidence follows the initial hinge lines of the rifting phase. Subsidence rates are quantified on each domain for each stratigraphic interval. At a constant distance from the rotational hinge line, the Plio-Quaternary subsidence rate is constant on the shelf overall. Conversely, Miocene subsidence rates are very different on the eastern and western shelves. Stratigraphic simulations focused on the Messinian salinity crisis (MSC) were also performed. Their results are discussed together with our post-rift subsidence estimates in order to provide ideas and hypotheses for future detailed quantifications of Miocene subsidence, including isostatic readjustments linked to the MSC.

Modelling the biogeochemical cycles of elements limiting primary production in the English channel .2. Sensitivity analyses

A general framework for an ecological model of the English Channel was described in the first of this pair of papers. In this study, it was used to investigate the sensitivity of the model to various factors: model structure, parameter values, boundary conditions and forcing variables. These sensitivity analyses show how important quota formulation for phytoplankton growth is, particularly for growth of dinoflagellates. They also stress the major influence of variables and parameters related to nitrogen. The role played by rivers and particularly the river Seine was investigated. Their influence on global English Channel phytoplanktonic production seems to be relatively low, even though nutrient inputs determine the intensity of blooms in the Bay of Seine. The geographical position of the river Seine's estuary makes it important in fluxes through the Straits of Dover. Finally, the multi-annual study highlights the general stability of the English Channel ecosystem. These global considerations are discussed and further improvements to the model are proposed.