Modeling the Arctic Freshwater System and its integration in the global system: Lessons learned and future challenges

Numerous components of the Arctic freshwater system (atmosphere, ocean, cryosphere, terrestrial hydrology) have experienced large changes over the past few decades, and these changes are projected to amplify further in the future. Observations are particularly sparse, both in time and space, in the Polar Regions. Hence, modeling systems have been widely used and are a powerful tool to gain understanding on the functioning of the Arctic freshwater system and its integration within the global Earth system and climate. Here, we present a review of modeling studies addressing some aspect of the Arctic freshwater system. Through illustrative examples, we point out the value of using a hierarchy of models with increasing complexity and component interactions, in order to dismantle the important processes at play for the variability and changes of the different components of the Arctic freshwater system and the interplay between them. We discuss past and projected changes for the Arctic freshwater system and explore the sources of uncertainty associated with these model results. We further elaborate on some missing processes that should be included in future generations of Earth system models and highlight the importance of better quantification and understanding of natural variability, amongst other factors, for improved predictions of Arctic freshwater system change.

New insights into the transport processes controlling the sulfate-methane-transition-zone near methane vents

Over the past years, several studies have raised concerns about the possible interactions between methane hydrate decomposition and external change. To carry out such an investigation, it is essential to characterize the baseline dynamics of gas hydrate systems related to natural geological and sedimentary processes. This is usually treated through the analysis of sulfate-reduction coupled to anaerobic oxidation of methane (AOM). Here, we model sulfate reduction coupled with AOM as a two-dimensional (2D) problem including, advective and diffusive transport. This is applied to a case study from a deep-water site off Nigeria’s coast where lateral methane advection through turbidite layers was suspected. We show by analyzing the acquired data in combination with computational modeling that a two-dimensional approach is able to accurately describe the recent past dynamics of such a complex natural system. Our results show that the sulfate-methane-transition-zone (SMTZ) is not a vertical barrier for dissolved sulfate and methane. We also show that such a modeling is able to assess short timescale variations in the order of decades to centuries.