Of sets of offsets: Cumulative impacts and strategies for compensatory restoration

Biodiversity offsets are increasingly advocated as a flexible approach to managing the ecological costs of economic development. Arguably, however, this remains an area where policy-making has run ahead of science. A growing number of studies identify limitations of offsets in achieving ecologically sustainable outcomes, pointing to ethical and implementation issues that may undermine their effectiveness. We develop a novel system dynamic modelling framework to analyze the no net loss objective of development and biodiversity offsets. The modelling framework considers a marine-based example, where resource abundance depends on a habitat that is affected by a sequence of development projects, and biodiversity offsets are understood as habitat restoration actions. The model is used to explore the implications of four alternative offset management strategies for a regulator, which differ in how net loss is measured, and whether and how the cumulative impacts of development are considered. Our results confirm that, when it comes to offsets as a conservation tool, the devil lies in the details. Approaches to determining the magnitude of offsets required, as well as their timing and allocation among multiple developers, can result in potentially complex and undesired sets of economic incentives, with direct impacts on the ability to meet the overall objective of ecologically sustainable development. The approach and insights are of direct interest to conservation policy design in a broad range of marine and coastal contexts.

A direct determination of the World Ocean barotropic circulation

The time-mean Argo float displacements and the World Ocean Atlas 2009 temperature–salinity climatology are used to obtain the total, top to bottom, mass transports. Outside of an equatorial band, the total transports are the sum of the vertical integrals of geostrophic- and wind-driven Ekman currents. However, these transports are generally divergent, and to obtain a mass conserving circulation, a Poisson equation is solved for the streamfunction with Dirichlet boundary conditions at solid boundaries. The value of the streamfunction on islands is also part of the unknowns. This study presents and discusses an energetic circulation in three basins: the North Atlantic, the North Pacific, and the Southern Ocean. This global method leads to new estimations of the time-mean western Eulerian boundary current transports maxima of 97 Sverdrups (Sv; 1 Sv ≡ 106 m3 s−1) at 60°W for the Gulf Stream, 84 Sv at 157°E for the Kuroshio, 80 Sv for the Agulhas Current between 32° and 36°S, and finally 175 Sv for the Antarctic Circumpolar Current at Drake Passage. Although the large-scale structure and boundary of the interior gyres is well predicted by the Sverdrup relation, the transports derived from the wind stress curl are lower than the observed transports in the interior by roughly a factor of 2, suggesting an important contribution of the bottom torques. With additional Argo displacement data, the errors caused by the presence of remaining transient terms at the 1000-db reference level will continue to decrease, allowing this method to produce increasingly accurate results in the future.