Uncertainties in projecting climate-change impacts in marine ecosystems

Projections of the impacts of climate change on marine ecosystems are a key prerequisite for the planning of adaptation strategies, yet they are inevitably associated with uncertainty. Identifying, quantifying, and communicating this uncertainty is key to both evaluating the risk associated with a projection and building confidence in its robustness. We review how uncertainties in such projections are handled in marine science. We employ an approach developed in climate modelling by breaking uncertainty down into (i) structural (model) uncertainty, (ii) initialization and internal variability uncertainty, (iii) parametric uncertainty, and (iv) scenario uncertainty. For each uncertainty type, we then examine the current state-of-the-art in assessing and quantifying its relative importance. We consider whether the marine scientific community has addressed these types of uncertainty sufficiently and highlight the opportunities and challenges associated with doing a better job. We find that even within a relatively small field such as marine science, there are substantial differences between subdisciplines in the degree of attention given to each type of uncertainty. We find that initialization uncertainty is rarely treated explicitly and reducing this type of uncertainty may deliver gains on the seasonal-to-decadal time-scale. We conclude that all parts of marine science could benefit from a greater exchange of ideas, particularly concerning such a universal problem such as the treatment of uncertainty. Finally, marine science should strive to reach the point where scenario uncertainty is the dominant uncertainty in our projections.

Marine protist diversity in European coastal waters and sediments as revealed by high-throughput sequencing

Although protists are critical components of marine ecosystems, they are still poorly characterized. Here we analysed the taxonomic diversity of planktonic and benthic protist communities collected in six distant European coastal sites. Environmental deoxyribonucleic acid (DNA) and ribonucleic acid (RNA) from three size fractions (pico-, nano- and micro/mesoplankton), as well as from dissolved DNA and surface sediments were used as templates for tag pyrosequencing of the V4 region of the 18S ribosomal DNA. Beta-diversity analyses split the protist community structure into three main clusters: picoplankton-nanoplankton-dissolved DNA, micro/mesoplankton and sediments. Within each cluster, protist communities from the same site and time clustered together, while communities from the same site but different seasons were unrelated. Both DNA and RNA-based surveys provided similar relative abundances for most class-level taxonomic groups. Yet, particular groups were overrepresented in one of the two templates, such as marine alveolates (MALV)-I and MALV-II that were much more abundant in DNA surveys. Overall, the groups displaying the highest relative contribution were Dinophyceae, Diatomea, Ciliophora and Acantharia. Also, well represented were Mamiellophyceae, Cryptomonadales, marine alveolates and marine stramenopiles in the picoplankton, and Monadofilosa and basal Fungi in sediments. Our extensive and systematic sequencing of geographically separated sites provides the most comprehensive molecular description of coastal marine protist diversity to date.