Uncertainties in projecting climate-change impacts in marine ecosystems

Projections of the impacts of climate change on marine ecosystems are a key prerequisite for the planning of adaptation strategies, yet they are inevitably associated with uncertainty. Identifying, quantifying, and communicating this uncertainty is key to both evaluating the risk associated with a projection and building confidence in its robustness. We review how uncertainties in such projections are handled in marine science. We employ an approach developed in climate modelling by breaking uncertainty down into (i) structural (model) uncertainty, (ii) initialization and internal variability uncertainty, (iii) parametric uncertainty, and (iv) scenario uncertainty. For each uncertainty type, we then examine the current state-of-the-art in assessing and quantifying its relative importance. We consider whether the marine scientific community has addressed these types of uncertainty sufficiently and highlight the opportunities and challenges associated with doing a better job. We find that even within a relatively small field such as marine science, there are substantial differences between subdisciplines in the degree of attention given to each type of uncertainty. We find that initialization uncertainty is rarely treated explicitly and reducing this type of uncertainty may deliver gains on the seasonal-to-decadal time-scale. We conclude that all parts of marine science could benefit from a greater exchange of ideas, particularly concerning such a universal problem such as the treatment of uncertainty. Finally, marine science should strive to reach the point where scenario uncertainty is the dominant uncertainty in our projections.

Marine protist diversity in European coastal waters and sediments as revealed by high-throughput sequencing

Although protists are critical components of marine ecosystems, they are still poorly characterized. Here we analysed the taxonomic diversity of planktonic and benthic protist communities collected in six distant European coastal sites. Environmental deoxyribonucleic acid (DNA) and ribonucleic acid (RNA) from three size fractions (pico-, nano- and micro/mesoplankton), as well as from dissolved DNA and surface sediments were used as templates for tag pyrosequencing of the V4 region of the 18S ribosomal DNA. Beta-diversity analyses split the protist community structure into three main clusters: picoplankton-nanoplankton-dissolved DNA, micro/mesoplankton and sediments. Within each cluster, protist communities from the same site and time clustered together, while communities from the same site but different seasons were unrelated. Both DNA and RNA-based surveys provided similar relative abundances for most class-level taxonomic groups. Yet, particular groups were overrepresented in one of the two templates, such as marine alveolates (MALV)-I and MALV-II that were much more abundant in DNA surveys. Overall, the groups displaying the highest relative contribution were Dinophyceae, Diatomea, Ciliophora and Acantharia. Also, well represented were Mamiellophyceae, Cryptomonadales, marine alveolates and marine stramenopiles in the picoplankton, and Monadofilosa and basal Fungi in sediments. Our extensive and systematic sequencing of geographically separated sites provides the most comprehensive molecular description of coastal marine protist diversity to date.

Global change and climate-driven invasion of the Pacific oyster (Crassostrea gigas) along European coasts: a bioenergetics modelling approach

Aim The spread of non-indigenous species in marine ecosystems world-wide is one of today's most serious environmental concerns. Using mechanistic modelling, we investigated how global change relates to the invasion of European coasts by a non-native marine invertebrate, the Pacific oyster Crassostrea gigas. Location Bourgneuf Bay on the French Atlantic coast was considered as the northern boundary of C. gigas expansion at the time of its introduction to Europe in the 1970s. From this latitudinal reference, variations in the spatial distribution of the C. gigas reproductive niche were analysed along the north-western European coast from Gibraltar to Norway. Methods The effects of environmental variations on C. gigas physiology and phenology were studied using a bioenergetics model based on Dynamic Energy Budget theory. The model was forced with environmental time series including in situ phytoplankton data, and satellite data of sea surface temperature and suspended particulate matter concentration. Results Simulation outputs were successfully validated against in situ oyster growth data. In Bourgneuf Bay, the rise in seawater temperature and phytoplankton concentration has increased C. gigas reproductive effort and led to precocious spawning periods since the 1960s. At the European scale, seawater temperature increase caused a drastic northward shift (1400 km within 30 years) in the C. gigas reproductive niche and optimal thermal conditions for early life stage development. Main conclusions We demonstrated that the poleward expansion of the invasive species C. gigas is related to global warming and increase in phytoplankton abundance. The combination of mechanistic bioenergetics modelling with in situ and satellite environmental data is a valuable framework for ecosystem studies. It offers a generic approach to analyse historical geographical shifts and to predict the biogeographical changes expected to occur in a climate-changing world.

Diurnal temporal patterns of the diversity and the abundance of reef fishes in a branching coral patch in New Caledonia

Small-scale spatial and temporal variability in animal abundance is an intrinsic characteristic of marine ecosystems but remains largely unknown for most animals, including coral reef fishes. In this study, we used a remote autonomous unbaited video system and recorded reef fish assemblages during daylight hours, 10 times a day for 34 consecutive days in a branching coral patch of the lagoon of New Caledonia. In total, 50 031 fish observations belonging to 114 taxa, 66 genera and 31 families were recorded in 256 recorded videos. Carnivores and herbivore-detritus feeders dominated the trophic structure. We found significant variations in the composition of fish assemblages between times of day. Taxa richness and fish abundance were greater in the early morning and in the late afternoon than during the day. Fourteen taxa displayed well-defined temporal patterns in abundance with one taxon influenced by time of day, six influenced by tidal state and seven influenced by both time of day and tidal state. None of these 14 taxa were piscivores, 10 were herbivore-detritus feeders, three were carnivores and one was plankton feeder. Our results suggest a diel migration from feeding grounds to shelter areas and highlight the importance of taking into account small-scale temporal variability in animal diversity and abundance when studying connectivity between habitats and monitoring communities.