7 resultados para Inter Session Variability Modelling

em Archimer: Archive de l'Institut francais de recherche pour l'exploitation de la mer


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We discuss the distributions and transports of the main water masses in the North Atlantic Subpolar Gyre (NASPG) for the mean of the period 2002–2010 (OVIDE sections 2002–2010 every other year), as well as the inter-annual variability of the water mass structure from 1997 (4x and METEOR sections) to 2010. The water mass structure of the NASPG, quantitatively assessed by means of an Optimum MultiParameter analysis (with 14 water masses), was combined with the velocity fields resulting from previous studies using inverse models to obtain the water mass volume transports. We also evaluate the relative contribution to the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) of the main water masses characterizing the NASPG, identifying the water masses that contribute to the AMOC variability. The reduction of the magnitude of the upper limb of the AMOC between 1997 and the 2000s is associated with the reduction in the northward transport of the Central Waters. This reduction of the northward flow of the AMOC is partially compensated by the reduction of the southward flow of the lower limb of the AMOC, associated with the decrease in the transports of Polar Intermediate Water and Subpolar Mode Water (SPMW) in the Irminger Basin. We also decompose the flow over the Reykjanes Ridge from the East North Atlantic Basin to the Irminger Basin (9.4 ± 4.7 Sv) into the contributions of the Central Waters (2.1 ± 1.8 Sv), Labrador Sea Water (LSW, 2.4 ± 2.0 Sv), Subarctic Intermediate Water (SAIW, 4.0 ± 0.5 Sv) and Iceland–Scotland Overflow Water (ISOW, 0.9 ± 0.9 Sv). Once LSW and ISOW cross over the Reykjanes Ridge, favoured by the strong mixing around it, they leave the Irminger Basin through the deep-to-bottom levels. The results also give insights into the water mass transformations within the NASPG, such as the contribution of the Central Waters and SAIW to the formation of the different varieties of SPMW due to air–sea interaction.

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Climate change challenges the capacity of fishes to thrive in their habitat. However, through phenotypic diversity, they demonstrate remarkable resilience to deteriorating conditions. In fish populations, inter-individual variation in a number of fitness-determining physiological traits, including cardiac performance, is classically observed. Information about the cellular bases of inter-individual variability in cardiac performance is scarce including the possible contribution of excitation-contraction (EC) coupling. This study aimed at providing insight into EC coupling-related Ca2+ response and thermal plasticity in the European sea bass (Dicentrarchus labrax). A cell population approach was used to lay the methodological basis for identifying the cellular determinants of cardiac performance. Fish were acclimated at 12 and 22 A degrees C and changes in intracellular calcium concentration ([Ca2+](i)) following KCl stimulation were measured using Fura-2, at 12 or 22 A degrees C-test. The increase in [Ca2+](i) resulted primarily from extracellular Ca2+ entry but sarcoplasmic reticulum stores were also shown to be involved. As previously reported in sea bass, a modest effect of adrenaline was observed. Moreover, although the response appeared relatively insensitive to an acute temperature change, a difference in Ca2+ response was observed between 12- and 22 A degrees C-acclimated fish. In particular, a greater increase in [Ca2+](i) at a high level of adrenaline was observed in 22 A degrees C-acclimated fish that may be related to an improved efficiency of adrenaline under these conditions. In conclusion, this method allows a rapid screening of cellular characteristics. It represents a promising tool to identify the cellular determinants of inter-individual variability in fishes' capacity for environmental adaptation.

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Observing, modelling and understanding the climate-scale variability of the deep water formation (DWF) in the North-Western Mediterranean Sea remains today very challenging. In this study, we first characterize the interannual variability of this phenomenon by a thorough reanalysis of observations in order to establish reference time series. These quantitative indicators include 31 observed years for the yearly maximum mixed layer depth over the period 1980–2013 and a detailed multi-indicator description of the period 2007–2013. Then a 1980–2013 hindcast simulation is performed with a fully-coupled regional climate system model including the high-resolution representation of the regional atmosphere, ocean, land-surface and rivers. The simulation reproduces quantitatively well the mean behaviour and the large interannual variability of the DWF phenomenon. The model shows convection deeper than 1000 m in 2/3 of the modelled winters, a mean DWF rate equal to 0.35 Sv with maximum values of 1.7 (resp. 1.6) Sv in 2013 (resp. 2005). Using the model results, the winter-integrated buoyancy loss over the Gulf of Lions is identified as the primary driving factor of the DWF interannual variability and explains, alone, around 50 % of its variance. It is itself explained by the occurrence of few stormy days during winter. At daily scale, the Atlantic ridge weather regime is identified as favourable to strong buoyancy losses and therefore DWF, whereas the positive phase of the North Atlantic oscillation is unfavourable. The driving role of the vertical stratification in autumn, a measure of the water column inhibition to mixing, has also been analyzed. Combining both driving factors allows to explain more than 70 % of the interannual variance of the phenomenon and in particular the occurrence of the five strongest convective years of the model (1981, 1999, 2005, 2009, 2013). The model simulates qualitatively well the trends in the deep waters (warming, saltening, increase in the dense water volume, increase in the bottom water density) despite an underestimation of the salinity and density trends. These deep trends come from a heat and salt accumulation during the 1980s and the 1990s in the surface and intermediate layers of the Gulf of Lions before being transferred stepwise towards the deep layers when very convective years occur in 1999 and later. The salinity increase in the near Atlantic Ocean surface layers seems to be the external forcing that finally leads to these deep trends. In the future, our results may allow to better understand the behaviour of the DWF phenomenon in Mediterranean Sea simulations in hindcast, forecast, reanalysis or future climate change scenario modes. The robustness of the obtained results must be however confirmed in multi-model studies.

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Endogenous and environmental variables are fundamental in explaining variations in fish condition. Based on more than 20 yr of fish weight and length data, relative condition indices were computed for anchovy and sardine caught in the Gulf of Lions. Classification and regression trees (CART) were used to identify endogenous factors affecting fish condition, and to group years of similar condition. Both species showed a similar annual cycle with condition being minimal in February and maximal in July. CART identified 3 groups of years where the fish populations generally showed poor, average and good condition and within which condition differed between age classes but not according to sex. In particular, during the period of poor condition (mostly recent years), sardines older than 1 yr appeared to be more strongly affected than younger individuals. Time-series were analyzed using generalized linear models (GLMs) to examine the effects of oceanographic abiotic (temperature, Western Mediterranean Oscillation [WeMO] and Rhone outflow) and biotic (chlorophyll a and 6 plankton classes) factors on fish condition. The selected models explained 48 and 35% of the variance of anchovy and sardine condition, respectively. Sardine condition was negatively related to temperature but positively related to the WeMO and mesozooplankton and diatom concentrations. A positive effect of mesozooplankton and Rhone runoff on anchovy condition was detected. The importance of increasing temperatures and reduced water mixing in the NW Mediterranean Sea, affecting planktonic productivity and thus fish condition by bottom-up control processes, was highlighted by these results. Changes in plankton quality, quantity and phenology could lead to insufficient or inadequate food supply for both species.

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The In Situ Analysis System (ISAS) was developed to produce gridded fields of temperature and salinity that preserve as much as possible the time and space sampling capabilities of the Argo network of profiling floats. Since the first global re-analysis performed in 2009, the system has evolved and a careful delayed mode processing of the 2002-2012 dataset has been carried out using version 6 of ISAS and updating the statistics to produce the ISAS13 analysis. This last version is now implemented as the operational analysis tool at the Coriolis data centre. The robustness of the results with respect to the system evolution is explored through global quantities of climatological interest: the Ocean Heat Content and the Steric Height. Estimates of errors consistent with the methodology are computed. This study shows that building reliable statistics on the fields is fundamental to improve the monthly estimates and to determine the absolute error bars. The new mean fields and variances deduced from the ISAS13 re-analysis and dataset show significant changes relative to the previous ISAS estimates, in particular in the southern ocean, justifying the iterative procedure. During the decade covered by Argo, the intermediate waters appear warmer and saltier in the North Atlantic and fresher in the Southern Ocean than in WOA05 long term mean. At inter-annual scale, the impact of ENSO on the Ocean Heat Content and Steric Height is observed during the 2006-2007 and 2009-2010 events captured by the network.

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This paper presents the general framework of an ecological model of the English Channel. The model is a result of combining a physical sub-model with a biological one. in the physical submodel, the Channel is divided into 71 boxes and water fluxes between them are calculated automatically. A 2-layer, vertical thermohaline model was then linked with the horizontal circulation scheme. This physical sub-model exhibits thermal stratification in the western Channel during spring and summer and haline stratification in the Bay of Seine due to high flow rates from the river. The biological sub-model takes 2 elements, nitrogen and silicon, into account and divides phytoplankton into diatoms and dinoflagellates. Results from this ecological model emphasize the influence of stratification on chlorophyll a concentrations as well as on primary production. Stratified waters appear to be much less productive than well-mixed ones. Nevertheless, when simulated production values are compared with literature data, calculated production is shown to be underestimated. This could be attributed to a lack of refinement of the 2-layer box-model or processes omitted from the biological model, such as production by nanoplankton.

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A general framework for an ecological model of the English Channel was described in the first of this pair of papers. In this study, it was used to investigate the sensitivity of the model to various factors: model structure, parameter values, boundary conditions and forcing variables. These sensitivity analyses show how important quota formulation for phytoplankton growth is, particularly for growth of dinoflagellates. They also stress the major influence of variables and parameters related to nitrogen. The role played by rivers and particularly the river Seine was investigated. Their influence on global English Channel phytoplanktonic production seems to be relatively low, even though nutrient inputs determine the intensity of blooms in the Bay of Seine. The geographical position of the river Seine's estuary makes it important in fluxes through the Straits of Dover. Finally, the multi-annual study highlights the general stability of the English Channel ecosystem. These global considerations are discussed and further improvements to the model are proposed.