Modeling the Arctic Freshwater System and its integration in the global system: Lessons learned and future challenges

Numerous components of the Arctic freshwater system (atmosphere, ocean, cryosphere, terrestrial hydrology) have experienced large changes over the past few decades, and these changes are projected to amplify further in the future. Observations are particularly sparse, both in time and space, in the Polar Regions. Hence, modeling systems have been widely used and are a powerful tool to gain understanding on the functioning of the Arctic freshwater system and its integration within the global Earth system and climate. Here, we present a review of modeling studies addressing some aspect of the Arctic freshwater system. Through illustrative examples, we point out the value of using a hierarchy of models with increasing complexity and component interactions, in order to dismantle the important processes at play for the variability and changes of the different components of the Arctic freshwater system and the interplay between them. We discuss past and projected changes for the Arctic freshwater system and explore the sources of uncertainty associated with these model results. We further elaborate on some missing processes that should be included in future generations of Earth system models and highlight the importance of better quantification and understanding of natural variability, amongst other factors, for improved predictions of Arctic freshwater system change.

Characterizing, modelling and understanding the climate variability of the deep water formation in the North-Western Mediterranean Sea

Observing, modelling and understanding the climate-scale variability of the deep water formation (DWF) in the North-Western Mediterranean Sea remains today very challenging. In this study, we first characterize the interannual variability of this phenomenon by a thorough reanalysis of observations in order to establish reference time series. These quantitative indicators include 31 observed years for the yearly maximum mixed layer depth over the period 1980–2013 and a detailed multi-indicator description of the period 2007–2013. Then a 1980–2013 hindcast simulation is performed with a fully-coupled regional climate system model including the high-resolution representation of the regional atmosphere, ocean, land-surface and rivers. The simulation reproduces quantitatively well the mean behaviour and the large interannual variability of the DWF phenomenon. The model shows convection deeper than 1000 m in 2/3 of the modelled winters, a mean DWF rate equal to 0.35 Sv with maximum values of 1.7 (resp. 1.6) Sv in 2013 (resp. 2005). Using the model results, the winter-integrated buoyancy loss over the Gulf of Lions is identified as the primary driving factor of the DWF interannual variability and explains, alone, around 50 % of its variance. It is itself explained by the occurrence of few stormy days during winter. At daily scale, the Atlantic ridge weather regime is identified as favourable to strong buoyancy losses and therefore DWF, whereas the positive phase of the North Atlantic oscillation is unfavourable. The driving role of the vertical stratification in autumn, a measure of the water column inhibition to mixing, has also been analyzed. Combining both driving factors allows to explain more than 70 % of the interannual variance of the phenomenon and in particular the occurrence of the five strongest convective years of the model (1981, 1999, 2005, 2009, 2013). The model simulates qualitatively well the trends in the deep waters (warming, saltening, increase in the dense water volume, increase in the bottom water density) despite an underestimation of the salinity and density trends. These deep trends come from a heat and salt accumulation during the 1980s and the 1990s in the surface and intermediate layers of the Gulf of Lions before being transferred stepwise towards the deep layers when very convective years occur in 1999 and later. The salinity increase in the near Atlantic Ocean surface layers seems to be the external forcing that finally leads to these deep trends. In the future, our results may allow to better understand the behaviour of the DWF phenomenon in Mediterranean Sea simulations in hindcast, forecast, reanalysis or future climate change scenario modes. The robustness of the obtained results must be however confirmed in multi-model studies.

Mixed-layer salinity budget in the tropical Indian Ocean: seasonal cycle based only on observations

The mixed-layer salinity (MLS) budget in the tropical Indian Ocean is estimated from a combination of satellite products and in situ observations over the 2004-2012 period, to investigate the mechanisms controlling the seasonal MLS variability. In contrast with previous studies in the tropical Indian Ocean, our results reveal that the coverage, resolution, and quality of available observations are now sufficient to approach a closed monthly climatology seasonal salt budget. In the South-central Arabian Sea and South-western Tropical Indian Ocean (SCAS and STIO, respectively), where seasonal variability of the MLS is pronounced, the monthly MLS tendency terms are well captured by the diagnostic. In the SCAS region, in agreement with previous results, the seasonal cycle of the MLS is mainly due to meridional advection driven by the monsoon winds. In the STIO, contrasting previous results indicating the control of the meridional advection over the seasonal MLS budget, our results reveal the leading role of the freshwater flux due to precipitation.