Uncertainties in projecting climate-change impacts in marine ecosystems

Projections of the impacts of climate change on marine ecosystems are a key prerequisite for the planning of adaptation strategies, yet they are inevitably associated with uncertainty. Identifying, quantifying, and communicating this uncertainty is key to both evaluating the risk associated with a projection and building confidence in its robustness. We review how uncertainties in such projections are handled in marine science. We employ an approach developed in climate modelling by breaking uncertainty down into (i) structural (model) uncertainty, (ii) initialization and internal variability uncertainty, (iii) parametric uncertainty, and (iv) scenario uncertainty. For each uncertainty type, we then examine the current state-of-the-art in assessing and quantifying its relative importance. We consider whether the marine scientific community has addressed these types of uncertainty sufficiently and highlight the opportunities and challenges associated with doing a better job. We find that even within a relatively small field such as marine science, there are substantial differences between subdisciplines in the degree of attention given to each type of uncertainty. We find that initialization uncertainty is rarely treated explicitly and reducing this type of uncertainty may deliver gains on the seasonal-to-decadal time-scale. We conclude that all parts of marine science could benefit from a greater exchange of ideas, particularly concerning such a universal problem such as the treatment of uncertainty. Finally, marine science should strive to reach the point where scenario uncertainty is the dominant uncertainty in our projections.

IQuOD 4th workshop in Tokyo: Copernicus Marine in situ TAC, a service for operational oceanography

Copernicus is a European system for monitoring the Earth. COPERNICUS-CMEMS products and services are meant to serve all marine applications: Marine resources, Maritime safety, Coastal and Marine Environment, Seasonal Forecast & Climate. The service is ambitious as the ocean is complex and many processes are involved, from physical oceanography, biology, geology, ocean-atmosphere fluxes, solar radiations, moon induced tides, anthropic activity. A multi-platform approach is essential, taking into account sea-level stations, coastal buoys, HF radars, river flows, drifting buoys, sea-mammal or fishes fitted with sensors, vessels, gliders, floats.

Marine protist diversity in European coastal waters and sediments as revealed by high-throughput sequencing

Although protists are critical components of marine ecosystems, they are still poorly characterized. Here we analysed the taxonomic diversity of planktonic and benthic protist communities collected in six distant European coastal sites. Environmental deoxyribonucleic acid (DNA) and ribonucleic acid (RNA) from three size fractions (pico-, nano- and micro/mesoplankton), as well as from dissolved DNA and surface sediments were used as templates for tag pyrosequencing of the V4 region of the 18S ribosomal DNA. Beta-diversity analyses split the protist community structure into three main clusters: picoplankton-nanoplankton-dissolved DNA, micro/mesoplankton and sediments. Within each cluster, protist communities from the same site and time clustered together, while communities from the same site but different seasons were unrelated. Both DNA and RNA-based surveys provided similar relative abundances for most class-level taxonomic groups. Yet, particular groups were overrepresented in one of the two templates, such as marine alveolates (MALV)-I and MALV-II that were much more abundant in DNA surveys. Overall, the groups displaying the highest relative contribution were Dinophyceae, Diatomea, Ciliophora and Acantharia. Also, well represented were Mamiellophyceae, Cryptomonadales, marine alveolates and marine stramenopiles in the picoplankton, and Monadofilosa and basal Fungi in sediments. Our extensive and systematic sequencing of geographically separated sites provides the most comprehensive molecular description of coastal marine protist diversity to date.

Restoration ecology of coastal lagoons: new methods for the prediction of ecological trajectories and economic valuation

Conservation of the seven lagoons of the Palavas complex (southern France) has been severely impaired by nutrient over-enrichment during at least four decades. The effluents of the Montpellier wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) represented the main nutrient input. To improve the water quality of these lagoons, this WWTP was renovated and upgraded and, since the end of 2005, its effluents have been discharged 11 km offshore into the Mediterranean (total investment €150 M). Possibilities of ecosystem restoration as part of a conservation programme were explored by a focus group of experts. Their tasks were: (i) to evaluate the impact of the reduction of the nutrient input; (ii) if necessary, to design additional measures for an active restoration programme; and (iii) to predict ecosystem trajectories for the different cases. Extension of Magnoliophyta meadows can be taken as a proxy for ecosystem restoration as they favour the increase of several fish (seahorse) and bird (ducks, swans, herons) species, albeit they represent a trade-off for greater flamingos. Additional measures for active ecosystem restoration were only recommended for the most impaired lagoon Méjean, while the least impaired lagoon Ingril is already on a trajectory of spontaneous recovery. A multiple contingent valuation considering four different management options for the Méjean lagoon was used in a pilot study based on face-to-face interviews with 159 respondents. Three levels of ecosystem restoration were expressed in terms of recovery of Magnoliophyta meadows, including their impact on emblematic fish and avifauna. These were combined with different options for access (status quo, increasing access, increasing access with measures to reduce disturbance). The results show a willingness of local populations to pay per year about €25 for the highest level of ecological restoration, while they were only willing to allocate about €5 for additional footpaths and hides.

Isotope and fatty acid trends along continental shelf depth gradients: Inshore versus offshore hydrological influences on benthic trophic functioning

Anthropogenic activities and land-based inputs into the sea may influence the trophic structure and functioning of coastal and continental shelf ecosystems, despite the numerous opportunities and services the latter offer to humans and wildlife. In addition, hydrological structures and physical dynamics potentially influence the sources of organic matter (e.g., terrestrial versus marine, or fresh material versus detrital material) entering marine food webs. Understanding the significance of the processes that influence marine food webs and ecosystems (e.g., terrestrial inputs, physical dynamics) is crucially important because trophic dynamics are a vital part of ecosystem integrity. This can be achieved by identifying organic matter sources that enter food webs along inshore–offshore transects. We hypothesised that regional hydrological structures over wide continental shelves directly control the benthic trophic functioning across the shelf. We investigated this issue along two transects in the northern ecosystem of the Bay of Biscay (north-eastern Atlantic). Carbon and nitrogen stable isotope analysis (SIA) and fatty acid analysis (FAA) were conducted on different complementary ecosystem compartments that include suspended particulate organic matter (POM), sedimentary organic matter (SOM), and benthic consumers such as bivalves, large crustaceans and demersal fish. Samples were collected from inshore shallow waters (at ∼1 m in depth) to more than 200 m in depth on the offshore shelf break. Results indicated strong discrepancies in stable isotope (SI) and fatty acid (FA) compositions in the sampled compartments between inshore and offshore areas, although nitrogen SI (δ15N) and FA trends were similar along both transects. Offshore the influence of a permanently stratified area (described previously as a “cold pool”) was evident in both transects. The influence of this hydrological structure on benthic trophic functioning (i.e., on the food sources available for consumers) was especially apparent across the northern transect, due to unusual carbon isotope compositions (δ13C) in the compartments. At stations under the cold pool, SI and FA organism compositions indicated benthic trophic functioning based on a microbial food web, including a significant contribution of heterotrophic planktonic organisms and/or of SOM, notably in stations under the cold pool. On the contrary, inshore and shelf break areas were characterised by a microalgae-based food web (at least in part for the shelf break area, due to slope current and upwelling that can favour fresh primary production sinking on site). SIA and FAA were relevant and complementary tools, and consumers better medium- to long-term system integrators than POM samples, for depicting the trophic functioning and dynamics along inshore–offshore transects over continental shelves.