Modeling the Arctic Freshwater System and its integration in the global system: Lessons learned and future challenges

Numerous components of the Arctic freshwater system (atmosphere, ocean, cryosphere, terrestrial hydrology) have experienced large changes over the past few decades, and these changes are projected to amplify further in the future. Observations are particularly sparse, both in time and space, in the Polar Regions. Hence, modeling systems have been widely used and are a powerful tool to gain understanding on the functioning of the Arctic freshwater system and its integration within the global Earth system and climate. Here, we present a review of modeling studies addressing some aspect of the Arctic freshwater system. Through illustrative examples, we point out the value of using a hierarchy of models with increasing complexity and component interactions, in order to dismantle the important processes at play for the variability and changes of the different components of the Arctic freshwater system and the interplay between them. We discuss past and projected changes for the Arctic freshwater system and explore the sources of uncertainty associated with these model results. We further elaborate on some missing processes that should be included in future generations of Earth system models and highlight the importance of better quantification and understanding of natural variability, amongst other factors, for improved predictions of Arctic freshwater system change.

The interplay between tectonics, sediment dynamics and gateways evolution in the Danube system from the Pannonian Basin to the western Black Sea

Understanding the natural evolution of a river–delta–sea system is important to develop a strong scientific basis for efficient integrated management plans. The distribution of sediment fluxes is linked with the natural connection between sediment source areas situated in uplifting mountain chains and deposition in plains, deltas and, ultimately, in the capturing oceans and seas. The Danube River–western Black Sea is one of the most active European systems in terms of sediment re-distribution that poses significant societal challenges. We aim to derive the tectonic and sedimentological background of human-induced changes in this system and discuss their interplay. This is obtained by analysing the tectonic and associated vertical movements, the evolution of relevant basins and the key events affecting sediment routing and deposition. The analysis of the main source and sink areas is focused in particular on the Miocene evolution of the Carpatho-Balkanides, Dinarides and their sedimentary basins including the western Black Sea. The vertical movements of mountains chains created the main moments of basin connectivity observed in the Danube system. Their timing and effects are observed in sediments deposited in the vicinity of gateways, such as the transition between the Pannonian/Transylvanian and Dacian basins and between the Dacian Basin and western Black Sea. The results demonstrate the importance of understanding threshold conditions driving rapid basins connectivity changes superposed over the longer time scale of tectonic-induced vertical movements associated with background erosion and sedimentation. The spatial and temporal scale of such processes is contrastingly different and challenging. The long-term patterns interact with recent or anthropogenic induced modifications in the natural system and may result in rapid changes at threshold conditions that can be quantified and predicted. Their understanding is critical because of frequent occurrence during orogenic evolution, as commonly observed in the Mediterranean area and discussed elsewhere.