Uncertainties in projecting climate-change impacts in marine ecosystems

Projections of the impacts of climate change on marine ecosystems are a key prerequisite for the planning of adaptation strategies, yet they are inevitably associated with uncertainty. Identifying, quantifying, and communicating this uncertainty is key to both evaluating the risk associated with a projection and building confidence in its robustness. We review how uncertainties in such projections are handled in marine science. We employ an approach developed in climate modelling by breaking uncertainty down into (i) structural (model) uncertainty, (ii) initialization and internal variability uncertainty, (iii) parametric uncertainty, and (iv) scenario uncertainty. For each uncertainty type, we then examine the current state-of-the-art in assessing and quantifying its relative importance. We consider whether the marine scientific community has addressed these types of uncertainty sufficiently and highlight the opportunities and challenges associated with doing a better job. We find that even within a relatively small field such as marine science, there are substantial differences between subdisciplines in the degree of attention given to each type of uncertainty. We find that initialization uncertainty is rarely treated explicitly and reducing this type of uncertainty may deliver gains on the seasonal-to-decadal time-scale. We conclude that all parts of marine science could benefit from a greater exchange of ideas, particularly concerning such a universal problem such as the treatment of uncertainty. Finally, marine science should strive to reach the point where scenario uncertainty is the dominant uncertainty in our projections.

Caractérisation du fonctionnement d'une hydrolienne à membrane ondulante pour la récupération de l'énergie des courants marins

This manuscript presents three approaches : analytical, experimental and numerical, to study the behaviour of a flexible membrane tidal energy converter. This technology, developed by the EEL Energy company, is based on periodic deformations of a pre-stressed flexible structure. Energy converters, located on each side of the device, are set into motion by the wave-like motion. In the analytical model, the membrane is represented by a linear beam model at one dimension and the flow by a 3 dimensions potential fluid. The fluid forces are evaluated by the elongated body theory. Energy is dissipated all over the length of the membrane. A 20th scale experimental prototype has been designed with micro-dampers to simulate the power take-off. Trials have allowed to validate the undulating membrane energy converter concept. A numerical model has been developed. Each element of the device is represented and the energy dissipation is done by dampers element with a damping law linear to damper velocity. Comparison of the three approaches validates their ability to represent the membrane behaviour without damping. The energy dissipation applied with the analytical model is clearly different from the two other models because of the location (where the energy is dissipated) and damping law. The two others show a similar behaviour and the same order of power take off repartition but value of power take off are underestimated by the numerical model. This three approaches have allowed to put forward key-parameters on which depend the behaviour of the membrane and the parametric study highlights the complementarity and the advantage of developing three approaches in parallel to answer industrial optimization problems. To make the link between trials in flume tank and sea trials, a 1/6th prototype has been built. To do so, the change of scale was studied. The behaviour of both prototypes is compared and differences could be explained by differences of boundary conditions and confinement effects. To evaluated membrane long-term behaviour at sea, a method of ageing accelerated by temperature and fatigue tests have been carried out on prototype materials samples submerged in sea water.