A coupled movement and bioenergetics model to explore the spawning migration of anchovy in the Bay of Biscay

Adult anchovies in the Bay of Biscay perform north to south migration from late winter to early summer for spawning. However, what triggers and drives the geographic shift of the population remains unclear and poorly understood. An individual-based fish model has been implemented to explore the potential mechanisms that control anchovy's movement routes toward its spawning habitats. To achieve this goal, two fish movement behaviors – gradient detection through restricted area search and kinesis – simulated fish response to its dynamic environment. A bioenergetics model was used to represent individual growth and reproduction along the fish trajectory. The environmental forcing (food, temperature) of the model was provided by a coupled physical–biogeochemical model. We followed a hypothesis-testing strategy to actualize a series of simulations using different cues and computational assumptions. The gradient detection behavior was found as the most suitable mechanism to recreate the observed shift of anchovy distribution under the combined effect of sea-surface temperature and zooplankton. In addition, our results suggested that southward movement occurred more actively from early April to middle May following favorably the spatio-temporal evolution of zooplankton and temperature. In terms of fish bioenergetics, individuals who ended up in the southern part of the bay presented better condition based on energy content, proposing the resulting energy gain as an ecological explanation for this migration. The kinesis approach resulted in a moderate performance, producing distribution pattern with the highest spread. Finally, model performance was not significantly affected by changes on the starting date, initial fish distribution and number of particles used in the simulations, whereas it was drastically influenced by the adopted cues.

Global change and climate-driven invasion of the Pacific oyster (Crassostrea gigas) along European coasts: a bioenergetics modelling approach

Aim The spread of non-indigenous species in marine ecosystems world-wide is one of today's most serious environmental concerns. Using mechanistic modelling, we investigated how global change relates to the invasion of European coasts by a non-native marine invertebrate, the Pacific oyster Crassostrea gigas. Location Bourgneuf Bay on the French Atlantic coast was considered as the northern boundary of C. gigas expansion at the time of its introduction to Europe in the 1970s. From this latitudinal reference, variations in the spatial distribution of the C. gigas reproductive niche were analysed along the north-western European coast from Gibraltar to Norway. Methods The effects of environmental variations on C. gigas physiology and phenology were studied using a bioenergetics model based on Dynamic Energy Budget theory. The model was forced with environmental time series including in situ phytoplankton data, and satellite data of sea surface temperature and suspended particulate matter concentration. Results Simulation outputs were successfully validated against in situ oyster growth data. In Bourgneuf Bay, the rise in seawater temperature and phytoplankton concentration has increased C. gigas reproductive effort and led to precocious spawning periods since the 1960s. At the European scale, seawater temperature increase caused a drastic northward shift (1400 km within 30 years) in the C. gigas reproductive niche and optimal thermal conditions for early life stage development. Main conclusions We demonstrated that the poleward expansion of the invasive species C. gigas is related to global warming and increase in phytoplankton abundance. The combination of mechanistic bioenergetics modelling with in situ and satellite environmental data is a valuable framework for ecosystem studies. It offers a generic approach to analyse historical geographical shifts and to predict the biogeographical changes expected to occur in a climate-changing world.