On the Movements of the North Atlantic Subpolar Front in the Preinstrumental Past*

Three sediment records of sea surface temperature (SST) are analyzed that originate from distant locations in the North Atlantic, have centennial-to-multicentennial resolution, are based on the same reconstruction method and chronological assumptions, and span the past 15 000 yr. Using recursive least squares techniques, an estimate of the time-dependent North Atlantic SST field over the last 15 kyr is sought that is consistent with both the SST records and a surface ocean circulation model, given estimates of their respective error (co)variances. Under the authors' assumptions about data and model errors, it is found that the 10 degrees C mixed layer isotherm, which approximately traces the modern Subpolar Front, would have moved by ~15 degrees of latitude southward (northward) in the eastern North Atlantic at the onset (termination) of the Younger Dryas cold interval (YD), a result significant at the level of two standard deviations in the isotherm position. In contrast, meridional movements of the isotherm in the Newfoundland basin are estimated to be small and not significant. Thus, the isotherm would have pivoted twice around a region southeast of the Grand Banks, with a southwest-northeast orientation during the warm intervals of the Bolling-Allerod and the Holocene and a more zonal orientation and southerly position during the cold interval of the YD. This study provides an assessment of the significance of similar previous inferences and illustrates the potential of recursive least squares in paleoceanography.

Modulation of sea surface temperature warming in the Bay of Biscay by Loire and Gironde Rivers

The influence of Loire and Gironde River discharges over the sea surface temperature (SST) in the eastern Bay of Biscay (0.6º–36.6ºW, 44.2º–47.8ºW) was analyzed by means of two complementary databases (MODIS and OISST1/4). The area influenced by river plume showed a different SST when compared with the adjacent oceanic area for the months when the plume attains its highest extension (December, January, and February). Ocean was observed to warm at a rate of approximately 0.3ºC dec−1 while temperature at the area influenced by the rivers cooled at a rate of −0.15ºC dec−1 over the period 1982–2014. The mere presence of a freshwater layer is able to modulate the warming observed at adjacent ocean locations since the coastal area is isolated from the rest of the Bay. This nearshore strip is the only part of the Bay where changes in SST depend on North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) but not on North Atlantic SST represented by the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). These different cooling-warming trends are even more patent over the last years (2002–2014) under atmospheric favorable conditions for plume enhancement. River runoff increased at a rate on the order of 120 m3s−1dec−1 over that period and southwesterly winds, which favor the confinement of the plume, showed a positive and significant trend both in duration and intensity. Thus, the coastal strip has been observed to cool at a rate of −0.5°C dec−1.