A meta-analytic approach to quantifying scientific uncertainty in stock assessments

Quantifying scientific uncertainty when setting total allowable catch limits for fish stocks is a major challenge, but it is a requirement in the United States since changes to national fisheries legislation. Multiple sources of error are readily identifiable, including estimation error, model specification error, forecast error, and errors associated with the definition and estimation of reference points. Our focus here, however, is to quantify the influence of estimation error and model specification error on assessment outcomes. These are fundamental sources of uncertainty in developing scientific advice concerning appropriate catch levels and although a study of these two factors may not be inclusive, it is feasible with available information. For data-rich stock assessments conducted on the U.S. west coast we report approximate coefficients of variation in terminal biomass estimates from assessments based on inversion of the assessment of the model’s Hessian matrix (i.e., the asymptotic standard error). To summarize variation “among” stock assessments, as a proxy for model specification error, we characterize variation among multiple historical assessments of the same stock. Results indicate that for 17 groundfish and coastal pelagic species, the mean coefficient of variation of terminal biomass is 18%. In contrast, the coefficient of variation ascribable to model specification error (i.e., pooled among-assessment variation) is 37%. We show that if a precautionary probability of overfishing equal to 0.40 is adopted by managers, and only model specification error is considered, a 9% reduction in the overfishing catch level is indicated.

National report of the frame survey 2012 on the Uganda side of Lake Victoria

This is a report on the results of the Frame Survey conducted in the Uganda side of Lake Victoria during August 2012 by the LVFO Institutions, namely: the Department of Fisheries Resources (DFR) Uganda and the National Fisheries Resources Research Institute (NaFIRRI) in close collaboration with the District Fisheries offices of Busia, Bugiri, Namayingo, Mayuge, Jinja, Buvuma, Buikwe, Mukono, Kampala, Wakiso, Mpigi, Kalungu, Masaka, Kalangala and Rakai. In the 2012 Frame survey some indicators of fishing effort including e.g. number of fishers, fishing crafts and long line hooks increased; whereas others like the number of gillnets less than 5 inches decreased by 10.4% from that recorded in 2010. The other indicators of fishing effort, which showed decrease in 2012 included illegal beach seines and undersized gillnets (<5 inch mesh size). However, a large proportion (66%) of long line hooks recorded in the 2012 survey were in the smallest size range (hook size >10), which target small Nile perch. The number of other illegal gears, i.e. cast nets and monofilament gillnets showed modest increases (25%) between 2010 and 2012 while beach seines decrease by 15%. Recent crackdown on illegal fishing activities as part of measures for recovery of the Nile perch stocks which are faced with depletion appear to have had an impact but much more needs to be done to eradicate illegal fishing. The fisheries in the Ugandan waters have remained predominantly near shore with 61% of all fishing crafts using paddles out of which 17% were tiny three plank, flat bottomed boats locally known as parachutes. The 2012 survey shows an increase in the number of fishing crafts using sails by 65% from 682 in 2010 to 1125 in 2012. This is an encouraging trend as more fishers are able to access distant fishing grounds using free wind power. The Mukene fishery in the Ugandan waters of Lake Victoria remained underdeveloped comprising only 15.2% of all fishing crafts, of which 31% were motorised which is a great improvement from the situation recorded in 2010. The Catamarans increased to 18 with a majority in Buikwe district where there is a private investor fishing specifically for Mukene. The Catamarans in Kalangala were reported not to be working because of the high operating cost compared to ordinary Mukene fishing boats.

The three dimensional model with the affection of stratified density (Caspian Sea)

The hydro dynamical actions in big Lakes directly influence dynamic, physical and chemical affairs. The circulation's models and temperature have something to do with the movements of fluids, and analysis for circulation in Caspian sea is because of the lack of observation through which the circulations and out comings are determined. Through the studies, three dimensional simulations (Large- Scale) are planned and performed, according to Smolakiewicz and Margolin works. This is a non- hydrostatic and Boussinesq approximation is used in its formulation is used in its formulation on the basis of Lipps (1990) theorem and curve lines, the fluid is constant adiabatic and stratified, and the wind power is considered zero. The profile of speed according to previous depth and before ridge can be drawn on the basis of density available between northern and southern ridges. The circulation field is drawn from 3 cm/s to 13 cm/s on the plate z= 5 cm , the vertical changes of speed on the plate is 0.02 m/s. Vertical profile , horizontal speed in previous on, and after the ridges on are drawn on different spaces. It changes from 0.5 cm/s to 1 cm/s before ridges.

Wind wave prediction in the Caspian Sea

In this thesis, wind wave prediction and analysis in the Southern Caspian Sea are surveyed. Because of very much importance and application of this matter in reducing vital and financial damages or marine activities, such as monitoring marine pollution, designing marine structure, shipping, fishing, offshore industry, tourism and etc, gave attention by some marine activities. In this study are used the Caspian Sea topography data that are extracted from the Caspian Sea Hydrography map of Iran Armed Forces Geographical Organization and the I 0 meter wind field data that are extracted from the transmitted GTS synoptic data of regional centers to Forecasting Center of Iran Meteorological Organization for wave prediction and is used the 20012 wave are recorded by the oil company's buoy that was located at distance 28 Kilometers from Neka shore for wave analysis. The results of this research are as follows: - Because of disagreement between the prediction results of SMB method in the Caspian sea and wave data of the Anzali and Neka buoys. The SMB method isn't able to Predict wave characteristics in the Southern Caspian Sea. - Because of good relativity agreement between the WAM model output in the Caspian Sea and wave data of the Anzali buoy. The WAM model is able to predict wave characteristics in the southern Caspian Sea with high relativity accuracy. The extreme wave height distribution function for fitting to the Southern Caspian Sea wave data is obtained by determining free parameters of Poisson-Gumbel function through moment method. These parameters are as below: A=2.41, B=0.33. The maximum relative error between the estimated 4-year return value of the Southern Caspian Sea significant wave height by above function with the wave data of Neka buoy is about %35. The 100-year return value of the Southern Caspian Sea significant height wave is about 4.97 meter. The maximum relative error between the estimated 4-year return value of the Southern Caspian Sea significant wave height by statistical model of peak over threshold with the wave data of Neka buoy is about %2.28. The parametric relation for fitting to the Southern Caspian Sea frequency spectra is obtained by determining free parameters of the Strekalov, Massel and Krylov etal_ multipeak spectra through mathematical method. These parameters are as below: A = 2.9 B=26.26, C=0.0016 m=0.19 and n=3.69. The maximum relative error between calculated free parameters of the Southern Caspian Sea multipeak spectrum with the proposed free parameters of double-peaked spectrum by Massel and Strekalov on the experimental data from the Caspian Sea is about 36.1 % in spectrum energetic part and is about 74M% in spectrum high frequency part. The peak over threshold waverose of the Southern Caspian Sea shows that maximum occurrence probability of wave height is relevant to waves with 2-2.5 meters wave fhe error sources in the statistical analysis are mainly due to: l) the missing wave data in 2 years duration through battery discharge of Neka buoy. 2) the deportation %15 of significant height annual mean in single year than long period average value that is caused by lack of adequate measurement on oceanic waves, and the error sources in the spectral analysis are mainly due to above- mentioned items and low accurate of the proposed free parameters of double-peaked spectrum on the experimental data from the Caspian Sea.