Wave forecasts associated with hurricane landfalls in the vicinity of Cape Lookout, North Carolina

Hurricanes can cause extensive damage to the coastline and coastal communities due to wind-generated waves and storm surge. While extensive modeling efforts have been conducted regarding storm surge, there is far less information about the effects of waves on these communities and ecosystems as storms make landfall. This report describes a preliminary use of NCCOS’ WEMo (Wave Exposure Model; Fonseca and Malhotra 2010) to compute the wind wave exposure within an area of approximately 25 miles radius from Beaufort, North Carolina for estuarine waters encompassing Bogue Sound, Back Sound and Core Sound during three hurricane landfall scenarios. The wind wave heights and energy of a site was a computation based on wind speed, direction, fetch and local bathymetry. We used our local area (Beaufort, North Carolina) as a test bed for this product because it is frequently impacted by hurricanes and we had confidence in the bathymetry data. Our test bed conditions were based on two recent Hurricanes that strongly affected this area. First, we used hurricane Isabel which made landfall near Beaufort in September 2003. Two hurricane simulations were run first by passing hurricane Isabel along its actual path (east of Beaufort) and second by passing the same storm to the west of Beaufort to show the potential effect of the reversed wind field. We then simulated impacts by a hurricane (Ophelia) with a different landfall track, which occurred in September of 2005. The simulations produced a geographic description of wave heights revealing the changing wind and wave exposure of the region as a consequence of landfall location and storm intensity. This highly conservative simulation (water levels were that of low tide) revealed that many inhabited and developed shorelines would receive wind waves for prolonged periods of time at heights far above that found during even the top few percent of non-hurricane events. The simulations also provided a sense for how rapidly conditions could transition from moderate to highly threatening; wave heights were shown to far exceed normal conditions often long before the main body of the storm arrived and importantly, at many locations that could impede and endanger late-fleeing vessels seeking safe harbor. When joined with other factors, such as storm surge and event duration, we anticipate that the WEMo forecasting tool will have significant use by local emergency agencies and the public to anticipate the relative exposure of their property arising as a function of storm location and may also be used by resource managers to examine the effects of storms in a quantitative fashion on local living marine resources.

Wind wave prediction in the Caspian Sea

In this thesis, wind wave prediction and analysis in the Southern Caspian Sea are surveyed. Because of very much importance and application of this matter in reducing vital and financial damages or marine activities, such as monitoring marine pollution, designing marine structure, shipping, fishing, offshore industry, tourism and etc, gave attention by some marine activities. In this study are used the Caspian Sea topography data that are extracted from the Caspian Sea Hydrography map of Iran Armed Forces Geographical Organization and the I 0 meter wind field data that are extracted from the transmitted GTS synoptic data of regional centers to Forecasting Center of Iran Meteorological Organization for wave prediction and is used the 20012 wave are recorded by the oil company's buoy that was located at distance 28 Kilometers from Neka shore for wave analysis. The results of this research are as follows: - Because of disagreement between the prediction results of SMB method in the Caspian sea and wave data of the Anzali and Neka buoys. The SMB method isn't able to Predict wave characteristics in the Southern Caspian Sea. - Because of good relativity agreement between the WAM model output in the Caspian Sea and wave data of the Anzali buoy. The WAM model is able to predict wave characteristics in the southern Caspian Sea with high relativity accuracy. The extreme wave height distribution function for fitting to the Southern Caspian Sea wave data is obtained by determining free parameters of Poisson-Gumbel function through moment method. These parameters are as below: A=2.41, B=0.33. The maximum relative error between the estimated 4-year return value of the Southern Caspian Sea significant wave height by above function with the wave data of Neka buoy is about %35. The 100-year return value of the Southern Caspian Sea significant height wave is about 4.97 meter. The maximum relative error between the estimated 4-year return value of the Southern Caspian Sea significant wave height by statistical model of peak over threshold with the wave data of Neka buoy is about %2.28. The parametric relation for fitting to the Southern Caspian Sea frequency spectra is obtained by determining free parameters of the Strekalov, Massel and Krylov etal_ multipeak spectra through mathematical method. These parameters are as below: A = 2.9 B=26.26, C=0.0016 m=0.19 and n=3.69. The maximum relative error between calculated free parameters of the Southern Caspian Sea multipeak spectrum with the proposed free parameters of double-peaked spectrum by Massel and Strekalov on the experimental data from the Caspian Sea is about 36.1 % in spectrum energetic part and is about 74M% in spectrum high frequency part. The peak over threshold waverose of the Southern Caspian Sea shows that maximum occurrence probability of wave height is relevant to waves with 2-2.5 meters wave fhe error sources in the statistical analysis are mainly due to: l) the missing wave data in 2 years duration through battery discharge of Neka buoy. 2) the deportation %15 of significant height annual mean in single year than long period average value that is caused by lack of adequate measurement on oceanic waves, and the error sources in the spectral analysis are mainly due to above- mentioned items and low accurate of the proposed free parameters of double-peaked spectrum on the experimental data from the Caspian Sea.

Beach monitoring project Sand Key Phase II Beach nourishment program (North Redington Beach and Redington Shores) Post-Nourishment Report Part II Offshore Profiles and Wave Data

This study presents the third post-nourishment survey (January 1989) results for the Sand Key Phase II beach nourishment project carried out in June, 1988. The monitoring program to this beach nourishment project is a joint effort between the University of South Florida and University of Florida. The field surveys include a total of 26 profiles, encompassing approximately 3 miles of shoreline extending from DNR R-96 to R-1ll. The total calculated volume loss of sand in the nourished segment (from R-99G to R-107) between the July 88 and January 89 surveys is 51,113 cubic yards, which is a loss about 9.7 percent of 529,150 cubic yards actually placed in the nourishment project. The total loss of sand computed in the entire survey area is 26,796 cubic yards, which is only 5.1 percent of the sand placed in the nourishment project. It is stressed that a part of these net volume reductions is due to the background erosion and not due to spreading losses induced by the nourishment project. (PDF contains 168 pages.)

Potential use of remote sensing to assess effects of wave action on plant re-establishment

Evaluation of the potential for remote sensing to detect a relationship between wave action factors and plant re-establishment after a habitat enhancement at Lake Kissimmee, Florida. Using Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and remote sensing, wave action factors were found to be inversely related to the probability of plant re-establishment. However, correlation of wave action factors with areal coverage of aquatic plants based on field measurements, were unable to detect a significant relationship. Other factors aside from wave action, including littoral slope and the presence of offshore vegetation, may have influenced plant re-establishment in these sites. Remote sensing techniques may be useful to detect large changes in plants communities, however small changes in plant coverages may not be detectable using this technique.

Forecasting Climate Impacts on Future Production of Commercially Exploited Fish and Shellfish

Foreword [pdf, < 0.1 MB] Acknowledgements PHASE 1 [pdf, 0.2 MB] Summary of the PICES/NPRB Workshop on Forecasting Climate Impacts on Future Production of Commercially Exploited Fish and Shellfish (July 19–20, 2007, Seattle, U.S.A.) Background Links to Other Programs Workshop Format Session I. Status of climate change scenarios in the PICES region Session II. What are the expected impacts of climate change on regional oceanography and what are some scenarios for these drivers for the next 10 years? Session III. Recruitment forecasting Session IV. What models are out there? How is climate linked to the model? Session V. Assumptions regarding future fishing scenarios and enhancement activities Session VI Where do we go from here? References Appendix 1.1 List of Participants PHASE 2 [pdf, 0.7 MB] Summary of the PICES/NPRB Workshop on Forecasting Climate Impacts on Future Production of Commercially Exploited Fish and Shellfish (October 30, 2007, Victoria, Canada) Background Workshop Agenda Forecast Feasibility Format of Information Modeling Approaches Coupled bio-physical models Stock assessment projection models Comparative approaches Similarities in Data Requests Opportunities for Coordination with Other PICES Groups and International Efforts BACKGROUND REPORTS PREPARED FOR THE PHASE 2 WORKSHOP Northern California Current (U.S.) groundfish production by Melissa Haltuch Changes in sablefish (Anoplopoma fimbria) recruitment in relation to oceanographic conditions by Michael J. Schirripa Northern California Current (British Columbia) Pacific cod (Gadus macrocephalus) production by Caihong Fu and Richard Beamish Northern California Current (British Columbia) sablefish (Anoplopoma fimbria) production by Richard Beamish Northern California Current (British Columbia) pink (Oncorhynchus gorbuscha) and chum (O. keta) salmon production by Richard Beamish Northern California Current (British Columbia) ocean shrimp (Pandalus jordani) production by Caihong Fu Alaska salmon production by Anne Hollowed U.S. walleye pollock (Theragra chalcogramma) production in the eastern Bering Sea and Gulf of Alaska by Kevin Bailey and Anne Hollowed U.S. groundfish production in the eastern Bering Sea by Tom Wilderbuer U.S. crab production in the eastern Bering Sea by Gordon H. Kruse Forecasting Japanese commercially exploited species by Shin-ichi Ito, Kazuaki Tadokoro and Yasuhiro Yamanka Russian fish production in the Japan/East Sea by Yury Zuenko, Vladimir Nuzhdin and Natalia Dolganova Chum salmon (Oncorhynchus keta) production in Korea by Sukyung Kang, Suam Kim and Hyunju Seo Jack mackerel (Trachurus japonicus) production in Korea by Jae Bong Lee and Chang-Ik Zhang Chub mackerel (Scomber japonicus) production in Korea by Jae Bong Lee, Sukyung Kang, Suam Kim, Chang-Ik Zhang and Jin Yeong Kim References Appendix 2.1 List of Participants PHASE 3 [pdf, < 0.1 MB] Summary of the PICES Workshop on Linking Global Climate Model Output to (a) Trends in Commercial Species Productivity and (b) Changes in Broader Biological Communities in the World’s Oceans (May 18, 2008, Gijón, Spain) Appendix 3.1 List of Participants Appendix 3.2 Workshop Agenda (Document contains 101 pages)

WEMo (Wave Exposure Model): Formulation, Procedures and Validation

This report describes the working of National Centers for Coastal Ocean Service (NCCOS) Wave Exposure Model (WEMo) capable of predicting the exposure of a site in estuarine and closed water to local wind generated waves. WEMo works in two different modes: the Representative Wave Energy (RWE) mode calculates the exposure using physical parameters like wave energy and wave height, while the Relative Exposure Index (REI) empirically calculates exposure as a unitless index. Detailed working of the model in both modes and their procedures are described along with a few sample runs. WEMo model output in RWE mode (wave height and wave energy) is compared against data collected from wave sensors near Harkers Island, North Carolina for validation purposes. Computed results agreed well with the wave sensors data indicating that WEMo can be an effective tool in predicting local wave energy in closed estuarine environments. (PDF contains 31 pages)

Extreme events and ecological forecasting

Almost all extreme events lasting less than several weeks that significantly impact ecosystems are weather related. This review examines the response of estuarine systems to intense short-term perturbations caused by major weather events such as hurricanes. Current knowledge concerning these effects is limited to relatively few studies where hurricanes and storms impacted estuaries with established environmental monitoring programs. Freshwater inputs associated with these storms were found to initially result in increased primary productivity. When hydrographic conditions are favorable, bacterial consumption of organic matter produced by the phytoplankton blooms and deposited during the initial runoff event can contribute to significant oxygen deficits during subsequent warmer periods. Salinity stress and habitat destruction associated with freshwater inputs, as well as anoxia, adversely affect benthic populations and fish. In contrast, mobile invertebrate species such as shrimp, which have a short life cycle and the ability to migrate during the runoff event, initially benefit from the increased primary productivity and decreased abundance of fish predators. Events studied so far indicate that estuaries rebound in one to three years following major short-term perturbations. However, repeated storm events without sufficient recovery time may cause a fundamental shift in ecosystem structure (Scavia et al. 2002). This is a scenario consistent with the predicted increase in hurricanes for the east coast of the United States. More work on the response of individual species to these stresses is needed so management of commercial resources can be adjusted to allow sufficient recovery time for affected populations.

Ecological forecasting: new tools for coastal and marine ecosystem management

Policy makers, natural resource managers, regulators, and the public often call on scientists to estimate the potential ecological changes caused by both natural and human-induced stresses, and to determine how those changes will impact people and the environment. To develop accurate forecasts of ecological changes we need to: 1) increase understanding of ecosystem composition, structure, and functioning, 2) expand ecosystem monitoring and apply advanced scientific information to make these complex data widely available, and 3) develop and improve forecast and interpretative tools that use a scientific basis to assess the results of management and science policy actions. (PDF contains 120 pages)

M/V WAVE WALKER Coral reef restoration baseline monitoring report – 2004 Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary, Monroe County, Florida

This document presents the results of baseline monitoring of a repaired coral reef injured by the M/V Wave Walker vessel grounding incident of January 19, 2001. This grounding occurred in Florida state waters within the boundaries of the Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary (FKNMS). The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the Board of Trustees of the Internal Improvement Trust Fund of the State of Florida, (“State of Florida” or “state”) are the co-trustees for the natural resources within the FKNMS. This report documents the efficacy of the restoration effort, the condition of the restored reef area two year and four months post-effort, and provides a picture of surrounding reference areas, so as to provide a basis for future comparisons by which to evaluate the long-term success of the restoration. (PDF contains 25 pages.)

Wave Sensor Technologies, St Petersburg, Florida, March 7-9, 2007: workshop proceedings

The Alliance for Coastal Technologies (ACT) convened a workshop on "Wave Sensor Technologies" in St. Petersburg, Florida on March 7-9, 2007, hosted by the University of South Florida (USF) College of Marine Science, an ACT partner institution. The primary objectives of this workshop were to: 1) define the present state of wave measurement technologies, 2) identify the major impediments to their advancement, and 3) make strategic recommendations for future development and on the necessary steps to integrate wave measurement sensors into operational coastal ocean observing systems. The participants were from various sectors, including research scientists, technology developers and industry providers, and technology users, such as operational coastal managers and coastal decision makers. Waves consistently are ranked as a critical variable for numerous coastal issues, from maritime transportation to beach erosion to habitat restoration. For the purposes of this workshop, the participants focused on measuring "wind waves" (i.e., waves on the water surface, generated by the wind, restored by gravity and existing between approximately 3 and 30-second periods), although it was recognized that a wide range of both forced and free waves exist on and in the oceans. Also, whereas the workshop put emphasis on the nearshore coastal component of wave measurements, the participants also stressed the importance of open ocean surface waves measurement. Wave sensor technologies that are presently available for both environments include bottom-mounted pressure gauges, surface following buoys, wave staffs, acoustic Doppler current profilers, and shore-based remote sensing radar instruments. One of the recurring themes of workshop discussions was the dichotomous nature of wave data users. The two separate groups, open ocean wave data users and the nearshore/coastal wave data users, have different requirements. Generally, the user requirements increase both in spatial/temporal resolution and precision as one moves closer to shore. Most ocean going mariners are adequately satisfied with measurements of wave period and height and a wave general direction. However, most coastal and nearshore users require at least the first five Fourier parameters ("First 5"): wave energy and the first four directional Fourier coefficients. Furthermore, wave research scientists would like sensors capable of providing measurements beyond the first four Fourier coefficients. It was debated whether or not high precision wave observations in one location can take the place of a less precise measurement at a different location. This could be accomplished by advancing wave models and using wave models to extend data to nearby areas. However, the consensus was that models are no substitution for in situ wave data.[PDF contains 26 pages]

The Atlantic and Gulf Menhaden Purse Seine Fisheries: Origins, Harvesting Technologies, Biostatistical Monitoring, Recent Trends in Fisheries Statistics, and Forecasting

With its genesis in New England during the 1800's, the purse seine fishery for Atlantic menhaden, Brevoortia tyrannus, expanded south and by the early 1900's ranged the length of the eastern seaboard. The purse seine fishery for Gulf menhaden. B. patronus, is of relatively recent development, exploitation of the stock beginning in the late 1940's. Landings from both fisheries annually comprise 35-40% of the total U. S. fisheries landings, ranking menhaden first in terms of volume landed. Technological advances in harvesting methods, fish-spotting capabilities, and vessel designs accelerated after World War II, resulting in larger, faster, and wider-ranging carrier vessels, improved speed and efficiency of the harvest, and reduction in labor requirements. Chief products of the menhaden industry are fish meal, fish oil, and solubles, but research into new product lines is underway. Since 1955 on the Atlantic coast and 1964 on the Gulf coast, the NMFS has monitored the fisheries for biostatistical data. Annual data summaries of numbers-of-fish-at-age harvested, catch tonnage, and fishing effort of the fleet form the basis of routine stock assessments and annual catch forecasts to industry for the upcoming fishing season. After landings declined in the 1960's, the Atlantic menhaden stock has recovered through the 1970's and 1980's. Exceptional year classes of Gulf menhaden in recent years account for record landings during the 1980's.

Report of the special session of "Chesapeake Bay Ecological Forecasting: Moving Ecosystem Modeling from Research to Operation" of the 2010 Chesapeake Modeling Symposium

Moving ecosystem modeling from research to applications and operations has direct management relevance and will be integral to achieving the water quality and living resource goals of the 2010 Chesapeake Bay Executive Order. Yet despite decades of ecosystem modeling efforts of linking climate to water quality, plankton and fish, ecological models are rarely taken to the operational phase. In an effort to promote operational ecosystem modeling and ecological forecasting in Chesapeake Bay, a meeting was convened on this topic at the 2010 Chesapeake Modeling Symposium (May, 10-11). These presentations show that tremendous progress has been made over the last five years toward the development of operational ecological forecasting models, and that efforts in Chesapeake Bay are leading the way nationally. Ecological forecasts predict the impacts of chemical, biological, and physical changes on ecosystems, ecosystem components, and people. They have great potential to educate and inform not only ecosystem management, but also the outlook and opinion of the general public, for whom we manage coastal ecosystems. In the context of the Chesapeake Bay Executive Order, ecological forecasting can be used to identify favorable restoration sites, predict which sites and species will be viable under various climate scenarios, and predict the impact of a restoration project on water quality.