Using forecasts to protect Federal facilities in the path of Hurricane Isabel

Hurricane Isabel made landfall as a Category 2 Hurricane on 18 September 2003, on the North Carolina Outer Banks between Cape Lookout and Cape Hatteras, then coursed northwestward through Pamlico Sound and west of Chesapeake Bay where it downgraded to a tropical storm. Wind damage on the west and southwest shores of Pamlico Sound and the western shore of Chesapeake Bay was moderate, but major damage resulted from the storm tide. The NOAA, National Ocean Service, National Centers for Coastal Ocean Sciences, Center for Coastal Fisheries and Habitat Research at Beaufort, North Carolina and the Center for Coastal Environmental Health and Biomedical Research Branch at Oxford, Maryland have hurricane preparedness plans in place. These plans call for tropical storms and hurricanes to be tracked carefully through NOAA National Weather Service (NWS) watches, warnings, and advisories. When a hurricane watch changes to a hurricane warning for the areas of Beaufort or Oxford, documented hurricane preparation plans are activated. Isabel exacted some wind damage at both Beaufort and Oxford. Storm tide caused damage at Oxford, where area-wide flooding isolated the laboratory for many hours. Storm tide also caused damage at Beaufort. Because of their geographic locations on or near the open ocean (Beaufort) or on or near large estuaries (Beaufort and Oxford), storm tide poses a major threat to these NOAA facilities and the safety of federal employees. Damage from storm surge and windblown water depends on the track and intensity of a storm. One tool used to predict storm surge is the Sea, Lake, and Overland Surges from Hurricanes (SLOSH) model of the NWS, which provides valuable surge forecasts that aid in hurricane preparation.

Forty Years of Winter: Cetaceans Observed During the Southbound Migration of Gray Whales, Eschrichtius robustus, Near Granite Canyon, Central California

From December to February in most years from 1967 to 2007, observers counted gray whales, Eschrichtius robustus, from shore sites south of Carmel in central California. In addition to gray whales, other cetacean species were also recorded. These observations were summarized and compared among survey platforms and to ocean conditions. Eleven cetacean species were identified including eight odontocete species (killer whale, Orcinus orca; Pacific white-sided dolphin, Lagenorhynchus obliquidens; common dolphin, Delphinus spp.; bottlenose dolphin, Tursiops truncatus, northern right whale dolphin, Lissodelphis borealis; Risso’s dolphin, Grampus griseus; Dall’s porpoise, Phocoenoides dalli; and harbor porpoise, Phocoena phocoena) and three mysticete species (humpback whale, Megaptera novaeangliae; minke whale, Balaenoptera acutorostrata; and blue whale, Balaenoptera musculus). As expected, the detection of certain species among survey platforms (shore-based census watches, 25-power “Big Eye” binocular watches, and aerial surveys) was limited by species surfacing behavior and/or bathymetric preference. Comparisons among the shore-based census efforts showed a significant difference in sightings rates from 1967–84 (n = 14, mean = 0.11, SD = 0.11) to 1985–2007 (n = 11, mean = 1.48, SD = 0.47; t-Test: p < 0.001, df = 23). The warm period observed during the 1990’s may partially explain the increase in sighting rates and diversity of species observed at the census site compared to the much cooler temperatures of the 1970’s.