Seasonal changes of heat and moisture fluxes from the Caspian Sea surface and its effect on synoptic systems with heavy rainfalls in southern shores of the sea during 2005-2010

Caspian Sea with its unique characteristics is a significant source to supply required heat and moisture for passing weather systems over the north of Iran. Investigation of heat and moisture fluxes in the region and their effects on these systems that could lead to floods and major financial and human losses is essential in weather forecasting. Nowadays by improvement of numerical weather and climate prediction models and the increasing need to more accurate forecasting of heavy rainfall, the evaluation and verification of these models has been become much more important. In this study we have used the WRF model as a research-practical one with many valuable characteristics and flexibilities. In this research, the effects of heat and moisture fluxes of Caspian Sea on the synoptic and dynamical structure of 20 selective systems associated with heavy rainfall in the southern shores of Caspian Sea are investigated. These systems are selected based on the rainfall data gathered by three local stations named: Rasht, Babolsar and Gorgan in different seasons during a five-year period (2005-2010) with maximum amount of rainfall through the 24 hours of a day. In addition to synoptic analyses of these systems, the WRF model with and without surface flues was run using the two nested grids with the horizontal resolutions of 12 and 36 km. The results show that there are good consistencies between the predicted distribution of rainfall field, time of beginning and end of rainfall by the model and the observations. But the model underestimates the amounts of rainfall and the maximum difference with the observation is about 69%. Also, no significant changes in the results are seen when the domain and the resolution of computations are changed. The other noticeable point is that the systems are severely weakened by removing heat and moisture fluxes and thereby the amounts of large scale rainfall are decreased up to 77% and the convective rainfalls tend to zero.

Impact of dead and sunken water hyacinth on biotic communities, the aquatic environment and socioeconomic activities

The mobile water hyacinth, which was produced in growth zones, especially Murchison bay, was mainly exported to three sheltered storage bays (Thruston, Hannington and Waiya). Between 1996 and May 1998, the mobile form of water hyacinth occupied about 800 ha in Thruston bay, 750 ha in Hannington bay and 140 ha in Waiya bay). Biological control weevils and other factors, including localised nutrient depletion, weakened the weed that was confined to the bays and it sunk around October 1998. The settling to the bottom of such huge quantities of organic matter its subsequent decomposition and the debris from this mass was likely to have environmental impacts on biotic communities (e.g. fish and invertebrate), physico-chemical conditions (water quality), and on socio-economic activities (e.g. at fish landings, water abstraction, and hydro-power generation points). Sunken water hyacinth debris could also affect nutrient levels in the water column and lead to reduction in the content of dissolved oxygen. The changes in nutrient dynamics and oxygen levels could affect algal productivity, invertebrate composition and fish communities. Socio-economic impacts of dead sunken weed were expected from debris deposited along the shoreline especially at fish landings, water abstraction and hydropower generation points. Therefore, environmental impact assessment studies were carried out between 1998 and 2002 in selected representative zones of Lake Victoria to identify the effects of the sunken water hyacinth biomass.